Uptober Is Here, But Will It Really Be Bullish?
Many people are talking about “Uptober,” predicting it will be super bullish for crypto, with the bull run returning and new highs soon to follow. There’s also talk of an altseason that will send altcoins to the moon after months of a correction phase. But what is Uptober, and will it really happen in these unique market conditions?
What is Uptober?
When people refer to “Uptober,” they mean that historically, October has been the second most bullish month for Bitcoin in terms of monthly returns, averaging more than +20% since 2013 :
Historically, Q4 (October, November, and December) has been a time of strong bullish momentum. That’s why many are confident in Bitcoin’s ability to reach a new all-time high — and if Bitcoin does, altcoins are expected to follow. But is it really that simple?
Market Sentiment
There’s a saying that the market typically does the opposite of what the majority of investors think. We saw this last year in May when many people were saying, “sell in May and go away” because May is historically a boring month, but it turned out to be a great month for Bitcoin.
The same thing is happening right now. Before the start of the month, everyone was saying that “Uptober” is coming; it’s going to be very bullish, and everyone should jump back on the hype train.
We’ve gone from a lot of fear one month ago to greed last week, and now we’re back to fear again. This illustrates the volatility in market sentiment, which explains the overall volatility of the crypto market.
The Situation Right Now
The market underestimated the tensions in the Middle East, with a surprise attack from Iran last night. Now, investors are expecting things to worsen, with a possible response from Israel.
Additionally, the U.S. presidential election is coming up soon (November 5th), bringing a lot of uncertainty. This will be closely watched by investors around the world.
Many surprises can happen, and history is not something we can rely on to predict future price movements if we don’t consider the larger macroeconomic conditions!
As always, thank you for reading!
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, you need to do your own research!
