Peak Oil? Oil Majors push back, but quarter of oil refineries could close
Quarter of oil refineries risk closure under climate goals — Carbon Tracker: ‘A quarter of the world’s oil refineries risk closure by 2035 if governments meet targets to limit fossil fuel burning in the fight against global warming.’ Companies such as Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, Total and China’s largest refiner Sinopec could see profits from refining drop by 70 percent or more over the period, according to the report co-authored by environment thinktank Carbon Tracker, Swedish investment fund AP7 and Danish pension fund PKA. The study is based on the International Energy Agency’s 450 Scenario to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius under which oil demand declines by 23 percent between 2020 and 2035.’ (Reuters, 2 Nov). The Canadian Press say,’The Carbon Tracker Initiative says about 100 of the world’s refineries may be forced to shut down in the next 18 years.’ The report is Margin call: Refining Capacity in a 2ᵒC world.
Peak oil? Majors aren’t buying into the threat from renewables: ‘A Reuters analysis of clean energy investments and forecasts by oil majors, along with exclusive interviews with top oil executives, reveal mostly token investments in alternative energy. Today, renewable power projects get about 3 percent of $100 billion in combined annual spending by the five biggest oil firms, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.’ The in-depth article notes that ‘even as governments and environmentalists forecast a peak in oil demand within a generation — and China and India say they may eventually ban gasoline and diesel vehicles — leaders of the world’s biggest oil firms are not buying the argument that their traditional business faces any imminent threat.’ (Reuters, 8 Nov).
OPEC Sees Oil Use Peak in Late 2030s If Electric Cars Boom: OPEC Says Oil Demand Will Grow Past 2040 (WSJ, 7 Nov), but include a scenario in which ‘a larger-than-expected boom in electric vehicle sales could cause global oil demand to peak and flatten out in the late 2030s. … The inclusion of the faster-growth scenario shows they are starting to take the threat more seriously’ according to Bloomberg. (7 Nov)
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