Bitcoin, 2020–2035
This tells the story of a plausible future of how BTC’s adoption will play out.
2020 4Q
~ More companies follow in Microstrategy’s footsteps. Rumors of more corporate treasurers investing in BTC in boardrooms globally. A few listed large corporates announce accumulation of BTC after their buddies have all bought in (Board members, C-suite executives, family, and friends, etc.)
~ Money printing does not stop as the deflationary force of technology is too severe; the new US government formed after Biden’s win begins to adopt MMT as its primary guidance of future economic theory, led by Steph Kelton.
~ The holiday season and strong seasonality pump BTC back to $20k for the first time. Hard rejection and price fall back to $14k.
2021
~ BTC finally breaks $20k after multiple retests of overhead resistance sometime in spring
~ Almost weekly we see another corporation announcing vested interest in BTC
~ No longer in doubt that the asset class is in a bull market. Macro funds pile in. By year-end, we’re at $55k. Newspaper reports Bitcoin has now broken the $1 trillion mark. Most institutions begin scrambling to understand the asset class and set up “Digital Asset Investment teams”
~ Retail money flows to altcoins; Bitcoin is becoming too expensive for “retail” investors. The bitcoin community discusses possibly denoting BTC as sats, but majority of exchanges not interested as they derive most income from alt flows. However, most Bitcoin-only platforms switch to sats as the primary display format led by bitcoiners who now have considerable wealth and influence
~ Increasing talk that some smaller nations are now discussing the prospect of including Bitcoin on their central bank balance sheet
~ The first BTC-denominated corporate bond is launched
2022
~ Those in power have established full BTC positions, and we begin to see subtle clues that some countries are possibly accumulating BTC
~ Private banks selling BTC structured products now out in full force; custody solutions are now institutional-grade. 50% of the world’s banks have some product/solution tailored around bitcoin. The other 50% scramble.
~ Marks the top as BTC momentarily exceeds the most valuable company by market cap (~$2.5 trillion in 2022 @ $130K price). The final days of the frenzy are filled with rumors that central banks have accumulated 10% of global supply, and that it may even form part of the IMF’s global recognized reserve currencies. Crypto Twitter reaches peak “I told you so”
2023
~ The next bear market isn’t as severe as the last few; as the digital asset teams of various institutions are accumulating up to 2-5% of their AuM. It’s now commonly accepted that this asset class is here to stay and that even deploying $10 billion is no longer an issue in an asset class worth an aggregate $5 trillion.
~ BTC finds a floor 60% lower at $50K as smart money accumulates. CT screams for a 80% correction because mUh bItCoIn cYcLeS aNd fRaCtAls
~ Investment banks now have full-fledged research teams dedicated to digital assets. Calls for 80% correction too, so the smart money front-runs.
~ The middle class latches on to the wholecoining meme. “1 Bitcoin to secure a retirement; stack those sats”
~ The wealthy who are now increasingly composed of inherited wealth begin selling real estate/equities/bonds for Bitcoin but holds their BTC with their private bank. Realizing that Bitcoin supply is truly limited and sensing the “1 bitcoin to retire” meme; and that not every millionaire can own 1 bitcoin, many of the rich/ultra-rich scramble to buy 5–100 BTC each if only to cement their status as rich. 5–100 BTC costs $500K-10M (at $100k per BTC)
~ The winning product of the year is an automatic savings plan in bitcoin.
2025
~ Bitcoin is back to trading near its all-time highs of $130K after the 2024 halving cycle, however, the effect is marginal but the markets wrongly attribute it to the halving supply squeeze, building a false narrative for the next cycle in 2028.
~ Institutional money now in full-play; on hindsight we’ll realize the 10-year steady bull-run has actually begun since last year in 2023, similar to the gold bull run from 2000 to 2011
~ More exchanges finally denominate BTC in sats. $100K BTC = 0.1 cent per sat. Logging into platform displays your stack as:
“11.7m satoshis ≈ $17,500”
2028
~ Retail attempts to trade around the 2028 halving cycle. The halving cycle no longer have much of an impact, as demand now far outstrips supply changes
~ Many earlycoiners now sell between $200–400K, only to see it continue its relentless climb at a 30% annual rate
~ The first central bank announces the official addition to their balance sheets; all other central bank begins to FOMO. Cements BTC as a global reserve asset.
~ Governments ask that private ownership of bitcoin be transferred to regulated financial institutions such as their local bank where it will be held under custody. 70% of people do so.
2033
~ Many of the early-coiners now buyback at near to $1M ($20 trillion market cap), finally equaling gold’s market cap at a price of $4000+
~ Bitcoin peaks and meanders under $1M for the next decade
~ Volatility is now <10% per year, merchants begin adopting it en-masse as a medium of exchange
2035
~ 5 years of price stability leads to some merchants re-pricing certain goods in sat-terms
~ The lightning network crosses a billion channels created
~ Fiat does not go away, but most G20 countries decide to ban bitcoin as a medium of exchange for economic transactions. Ownership of bitcoin as an asset is encouraged as a store of wealth; private ownership is frowned upon and in some cases made illegal.
