Bitcoin Will Do Nothing Until December 1st or 2nd
On December 1st or December 2nd Bitcoin will make an unexpected move!
First thing first. This is not financial advice. I am just a 20-year-old who has learned technical analysis from YouTube. So, don’t trust me with your money, because I am probably wrong.
I am writing this article because I feel I have come across something that nobody is talking about. Instead, they’re zooming in and focusing on the short term. Things like the fear and greed index, or the news.
When I first entered the cryptocurrency space back in early 2017. I remember hearing this Youtuber. I cannot remember their names. Saying this one line. This line still resonates with me in my analysis.
“When in doubt, zoom out.”
Earlier this year, it fascinated me with the price levels that bitcoin was reaching. I mean we were just coming out of the brutal bear market. Which reached lows of $3100. Then within half a year, we reached a higher high from the previous low at almost $14,000.
This was interesting because $14,000 just so happened to an almost 30% retracement from the high in December 2017 of almost $20,000. But I will get to that in a minute.
Back around the 20th of October. I made a prediction that I sent to my close friends, who were into cryptocurrency. That prediction that on October 25th or October 26th Bitcoin would make a major move to the upside. This was back when all the TradingView and YouTube people were calling for lower lowers.
Guess what, it came true. I might not have gotten the exact numbers right, but I was close. On October 25th, we shot up to a high of $8800, then on October 26th, we made a high of $10,350. After that, we are now consolidating on our way to $8500.
You’re probably like “Wait Ben, what is this even based on?”.
I am glad you asked. Remember earlier in this article when I said that Bitcoin has reached some interesting price levels. I am about to show you how interesting these price levels were.
Let me start with the high we made on June 26th when we almost reached $14,000. I said earlier that $14,000 was almost a 30% retracement from the all-time of $20,000.
Why is this important? Well, because we have seen this before. Back in 2016, we made a very similar move to a very interesting price level. In June 2016, we reached a high of $780, which is a 33% retracement from the previous all-time highs of $1170.
This got me curious. I started looking at other points on Bitcoin’s chart for more similarities. This is what I found. It turns out that the recent higher low Bitcoin made at $7800 was a 60% retracement from its all-time high.
Again, I wanted to compare these numbers to what happened back in 2016. What I found shocked me. Back on August 2nd of 2016, we made another higher low at $465. Which just so happened to be a 60% retracement from the previous all-time high.
This got me interested, so I looked at the date range of the two charts. Since I had no way of seeing what would happen. I had to look back to the date range of 2016. I found that after reaching a 33% retracement from the previous all-time high. Then, correcting to a 60% retracement from the previous all-time high. It took Bitcoin 4 weeks to make a move.
So I predicted, that on October 25th or October 26th. Bitcoin would make a move to the upside. What did it do? Exactly what history showed us it would do. It shot up to make a lower high at $10,350 and has been consolidating since.
Now that we got all that background out of the way. I want to tell you about another interesting thing I found. After this jump from a low of $7300 to $10,350. We have been hovering around the $9000 mark. This is interesting to me because again if we zoom out back to 2016, we see another similarity. In 2016, after the low we made $450, we bounced up to $630, then consolidated around this price range for 5 weeks.
All this got me thinking, so I applied this same date range to Bitcoin’s chart. I could then make the prediction that according to the history of Bitcoin’s cycles. Bitcoin will consolidate somewhere between the $8500-$9500 levels until December 1st or December 2nd. On December 1st or December 2nd, Bitcoin will make a move higher retesting previous all-time highs.
Okay, all this is great, but if we are looking at the history of Bitcoin’s price levels in 2016. We realize that there was a previous high at $500 before we reached $1170. This got me interested in comparing the bull run that started in April 2019 with the bull run that started in September 2015.
Before I jump into that. I want to make sure you guys are familiar with Bitcoin’s horrific corrections. These major corrections always happen after Bitcoin made new all-time highs.
April 10th, 2013 to April 12th, 2013 BTC corrected -83% from a high of $259.34 to a low of $45.
November 30th, 2013 to January 14th, 2015 BTC corrected -87% from a high of $1163 to a low of $152.40
December 17th, 2017 to December 15th, 2018 BTC corrected -84% from a high of $19,666 to a low of $3140
With this evidence, we can confidently say that Bitcoin has bottomed on December 15, 2018, at $3140. Just like when Bitcoin bottomed back on January 14th, 2015, at $152.40. We experienced a higher high at $500 before making another higher high to $1140. $500 was a -57 % correction from the previous all-time high.
If we now look at what happened in May 2019. We see the same thing. Bitcoin moved from a low of $3140 to a higher high at $9100. This was a -54% correction from the all-time highs.
All of this tells me we are in a similar spot to where we were back in late 2016. Going forward to my prediction is within the next two years we will see a new all-time high for Bitcoin. Then see another 80% correction.
I don’t think there is any other asset out there. That correlates as well as Bitcoin does with market psychology. In the summer of 2019, the rally we saw was the disbelief phase of the market cycle. If you need any evidence, look back on any TradingView or YouTube “analyst” or the news and you will the disbelief.
As a matter of fact. I will take you back a little. Back in late 2017 everybody and your barber were talking about Bitcoin. That was the Euphoria phase.
Then we witnessed a nasty correction after we failed to break $20,000. “The reason we stopped going up is that everyone is waiting to get their tax money.” “We just have to wait for Chinese New Year to pass.” This was the complacency phase.
The next 3 phases are self-explanatory. We slowly fell down to $6,000 then formed a descending triangle and fell lower. Then we hit glorious $3,100. This was the depression phase. The time when everyone called for Bitcoin to go to zero.
Wrapping this article up. My prediction is that on December 1st or December 2nd we will see a move to the upside. Moving us from the disbelief phase to the hope phase. Just wait till all the TradingView or YouTube “analysists” switch up and start calling for new highs.
If you have made it to this point thank you. It really means a lot. I will be making more posts like this on talking about the cryptocurrency space. As well as youtube video going over the same information we covered in this post!
Link to my youtube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mh3fiGCJwCI&t=8s
Cheers,
Benjamin
No one has to, but if anyone enjoyed this article. It would mean the world if you sent me a donation ❤
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