Bitcoin’s Long Term Value

An Adoption S-Curve for a New Monetary Technology

Stephen Perrenod
The Dark Side
Published in
7 min readMar 3, 2021

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This is not investment advice. Bitcoin is highly volatile. Past performance of back-tested models is no assurance of future performance. Only invest what you can afford to lose. You must decide how much of your investment capital you are willing to risk with Bitcoin. No warranties are expressed or implied.

Figure 1: Technology adoption curves for some major inventions. Bitcoin is 12 years old and has 11% adoption in the US.

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Stephen Perrenod
The Dark Side

supercomputing expert, astrophysicist, technology analyst, orionx.net, author of DarkMatter, DarkEnergy, DarkGravity