Great Divergence. Why Bitcoin can grow up to $15,000 this year
By Andrey Mastykin on ALTCOIN MAGAZINE
Three months ago I wrote that the growth of BTC is very probable. My suggestion was based on pure fundamental analysis. Fundamentals and market sentiment were perfect for the beginning of long-term up-trend. Current analysis of fundamentals tells us about a very probable middle-term prolongation of growth up to $10,000-$15,000.
Bitcoin transactions level is near historical record
One of the basic principles of Bitcoin fundamentals is network activity. The idea is very simple — as more people use cryptocurrency, as higher its value. If to take into account this approach we see a huge divergence between the current price of BTC and possible price. In 2017 with everyday transactions up to 450,000, we had a price up to $19,000–20,000. Today, with a similar amount of transactions per day we have just near $5,700.
Of course, in 2017 we watched a huge speculative bubble, and critics can note fairly that it was not a normal market condition. On the other hand, if to observe historical data, price and TPD (transactions per day) are correlating constantly with some time gaps.
The current investment and payment infrastructure evidence that practical usage of bitcoin will grow further.
Lightning network
I’m a devoted believer in the opportunities, which give Lightning network for Bitcoin. This protocol is an elegant decision removing basic Bitcoin’ weaknesses as poor scalability and high transaction fee. I think we see just a beginning of its capacity growth after all this micropayment system can give any scalability with near-zero fees. Recent mothy data have been collected by https://1ml.com demonstrating constant growth of capacity that has already exceeded $6 mln. Most of other important metrics as the number of nodes and number of payment channels are also constantly growing.
Another huge milestone for Lightning and Bitcoin is an opportunity to make purchases in the world’s biggest online marketplace Amazon.com using bitcoin. Such option was recently launched by startup Moon and it is working in the testing mode now.
Users will be able to buy any item with a Lightning wallet or Coinbase account. It’s not necessary to remind that Amazon.com is the world’s most visited website with the monthly audience up to 2.95 bln (data by similar.web).
During the last two years, we have observed a growing acceptance of bitcoin by “traditional” financial institutions as investment giants Fidelity and Black Rock. This respected companies are together managing near $10 trillion and creating an infrastructure to let investors buy and sell bitcoin safely. This obstacle makes closer the beautiful idea of crypto enthusiasts who believe that bitcoin once can become the digital analogue of gold with multi-trillion capitalization.
Do you still believe BTC need years to come back to 2017 highs?
