How safe is it to invest in Bitcoin in 2020? Will it still be stable?
By Marius Kramer on The Capital
Yes, it will be quite stable or move upwards throughout 2020 where it’ll probably reach $20,000-$80,000 and prepare to sell it in 2021, where it will probably peak at $180,000 and then flame out.
Why $180,000? Because of the halvening.
Bitcoin always does a 200% pump within 1 year before the halvening and another much, much bigger pump in the year after the halvening.
We’ve seen this before for every halvening.
- From $3 to $10 (220%) the year before and from $10 to its peak of $1,000 (10,000%) 1 year after the 1st halvening in 2013, a total of 300x
- From $300 to $900 (200%) the year before and from $900 to its peak of $20,000 (1,800%) 1.5 years after the 2nd halvening in 2016, a total of 66x
- From $3,000 to $9,000 (200%) the year before and then potentially from $9,000 to its peak of $90,000 (1,000%) 2 years after the 3rd halvening in 2020, a total of 30x
As we can see, the pumps always get a bit less strong and take 50% longer. This makes sense, because the market is maturing.
The decline in pumps also gets less strong. That’s why this approximation is probably the best.
- 220%/10,000% within 1 year after the Halving
- 200%/1,800% within 1.5 years after the Halving
- 200%/1,000% within 1.5–2 years after the Halving
Funnily enough, we have already had the pre-halvening pump for 2019 now until $14,000 and we will probably settle around $10,000-$15,000 until just before the Halving.
Conclusion
We are on track to hitting $90,000 1.5–2 years after the Halving at the end of 2021, just because of the halvening alone. However, since this is the first time real mass-adoption will happen and all the largest companies in the world are already using blockchain technology now, this added factor could bring us to $180,000 until late 2021 or 2022 even.
Of course, there remains one obstacle, the Bitcoin scalability bottleneck, which would present big difficulties when Bitcoin wants to cross $50,000.
At that point, we will possibly see a 30%-50% crash and either Bitcoin increases its block size to 10MB or makes another simple adjustment or another coin will replace Bitcoin and take on its volume.
Originally published at http://quora.com.
