What if the Bitcoin Price does not Rise after the 3rd Halving?

By Marius Kramer on The Capital

It is a possibility even though it’s a small possibility.

1. It’s quite likely that Bitcoin doesn’t break ATH of $20,000 before the Halving, maybe that chance is 50%.
2. It’s less likely that Bitcoin doesn’t break ATH 3 months after the Halving, maybe that chance is 20%.
3. It’s quite unlikely that Bitcoin doesn’t break ATH 7 months after the Halving at the end of 2020, maybe that chance is still 10% though.

On the flipside,

1. The chance of Bitcoin breaking $20,000 before the Halving is 50%.
2. The chance of Bitcoin breaking $40,000 3 months after the Halving is maybe 20%.
3. The chance of Bitcoin breaking $80,000 7 months after the Halving is maybe also 20%.

If we go by previous Halvings, $80,000 7 months after the Halving is actually the most likely scenario, but let’s be a bit conservative and only put it at 20%.

Originally published at http://quora.com.

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