Germany, 2018: Bundestag Elections, the Resurrection of the Far-Right, and Business Without Government

By Michael Tangonan

German constituents went to polls on 24 September 2017 in the 19th Bundestag elections. The results shocked the world as the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (‘AFD’), which runs on a platform of Euroscepticism, a return to ‘traditional family values’, and climate change denial, rose to prominence. In other words, the reversal of der Vergangenheitsbewaltigung, where the community comes to terms with the past with remorse and embarrassment for what happened during WWII, may be looming in German politics.

How do elections in Germany work?

The German Bundestag operates on a mixed member proportional system. This means each citizen votes for two things on their ballot:

(1) a candidate; and

(2) a party.

This is similar to New Zealand’s system. For example, a party gains five seats under the party vote but only has three candidates who are directly elected via candidate vote. If successful, the party receives an extra three list seats. But where the party gets seven candidates elected instead, they receive extra two seats as overhanging seats (this accounts for the two more candidates than seats).

In the Bundestag, where a party receives overhanging seats, the other parties also receive the same amount required to maintain the full proportionality for all parties, also known as balance seats.

However, in order to receive any seats, a party must have gained at least 5% of the national vote. This means that the numbers in the Bundestag are contingent upon how constituents vote.[1] Hence there was an increase of 78 extra seats in the current Bundestag, which is now at 709 seats (up from 631 in 2013).

Results

The AFD gained 94 seats as the third largest vote overall behind the parties led by current German Chancellor Angela Merkel; the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (CDU) on 200, the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (CSU) on 46 seats, and the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) on 153.

Most of the losses from the 2013 election were from the major parties, namely the CDU down 55 seats from 255 in 2013, the SPD down 40 seats from 193, and the CSU down 10 seats from 56.[2] The main winners were AFD, which was up from being not represented at all in 2013, the Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) on 80 seats from not-contested, and the Greens and the Left which gained 4 and 5 seats respectively.

The return of the not-so-Grand Coalition

The previous government held power through the Grand Coalition between the CDU, CSU,and SPD. This was previously declared to be impossible by Martin Schultz, leader of the SPD, who is now only limited to constituencies in cities and Bavaria. Both the Left and the AFD have ruled out any coalitions with Merkel, with all other parties stating they will not work with the AFD in turn. This led to Merkel announcing negotiations with the FDP and the Greens in a new ‘Jamaica Coalition’ in September 2017.

However, six months later, there have been no successful negotiations between the FDP, Greens, CDU, or CSU. The FDP withdrew from negotiations after what leader Christian Lindner referred to as ‘no basis of trust.’ The Greens on the other hand, were willing to work with CDU or CSU over climate change and agriculture, but considered the FDP dubious and calculating. And so with no prospect of a deal with either the FDP or the Greens, Merkel returned with fresh negotiations with the SPD. This deal is now in favour of considering the poor results it received in the September election. It was approved by the members of the SPD in early March after much uncertainty, leading to Merkel returning with the former ‘Grand Coalition’. But perhaps not so grand, as Merkel no longer commands the majority.

And yet she seems to be the only candidate to be the leader of the Free World. She is the most experienced, having been the Chancellor of Germany since 2005. Her current tenure is concurrent with the terms of three US Presidents, four British Prime Ministers, six Australian Prime Ministers (including Kevin’s two-time run), and four French Presidents.

This author can only hope that Angela Merkel can navigate Europe through this tumultuous time. With Trump emphatically relinquishing the mantle of the Obama administration, the growing resentment at home, dropping ratings for Macron, and the insular attitude of the British Isles from Brexit; her long experience may just be the light at the end of our tunnel.

Bibliography

‘Germany’s Merkel suffers blow as FDP pulls out of coalition talks’ BBC News (online), (20 November 2017) < http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42047532>.

Eddy, M.,and Bennhold, K., ‘Angela Merkel Averts Crisis, Forming Government With S.P.D. Again’, The New York Times (online), (04 March 2018) < https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/04/world/europe/germany-spd-merkel.html>

The Federal Chancellor, Angela Merkel re-elected Chancellor (14 March 2018) <https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/Content/EN/Artikel/2018/03_en/2018-03-14-wahl-im-bundestag_en.html;jsessionid=F1D5659BE6F9B453B5F6AA32696D1DB3.s3t2>.

Hill, J, ‘Germany coalition deal: Merkel promises action on jobs and EU’ BBC News (online), (05 March 2018 ) < http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43288125>.

Rinke, A, ‘Merkel pushes for three-way ‘Jamaica’ coalition in Germany’, Reuters (online), 07 October 2017 < https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-merkel/merkel-pushes-for-three-way-jamaica-coalition-in-germany-idUSKBN1CC0BZ>.

Deutscher Bundestag, German Bundestag — Elections, <https://www.bundestag.de/en/parliament/elections/elections>.