NEWSLETTER 09/05: AFC Edition

College football made its glorious return on Saturday, and needless to say, the drama is already unfolding after one weekend. Alabama proved yet again that no one should underestimate its ability to plug in new pieces and still remain dominant, Houston notched a program-defining victory over Oklahoma and the Sooners’ arch-nemesis Texas Longhorns defeated №10 Notre Dame in a double-overtime instant classic. And Mississippi State lost to South Alabama.

But football isn’t complete yet. On Thursday, the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos will kick off the 2016 NFL season, meaning that every boyfriend/girlfriend/spouse that doesn’t enjoy football (blasphemy!) who has a significant other that adores it…well…let’s just say there won’t be much talking over the next four months.

AFC East

(Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets)

Tom Brady’s out for four games, which leaves the Patriots more vulnerable in the AFC East than ever.

Who Will Win: New England Patriots

While yes, Tom Brady is suspended for the first quarter of the season, no, the Patriots will not be dethroned as the champs of the AFC East.

Over the last 13 seasons, New England has won the division every year but 2008. If you don’t recall, that was the year that Brady went down for the season in the season opener with a torn ACL, forcing Matt Cassel to lead the Patriots. They did quite well considering the circumstances, but finished 11–5 and lost the division to the Miami Dolphins.

Aside from that anomaly in 2008, this is the first year that Brady won’t start all 16 games for New England since 2001. How incredible is that?

But unlike 2008, Brady will just be missing four games, not all 16.

In this rare occasion where the quarterback for the Patriots isn’t dawning №12, in comes Jimmy Garoppolo, a third-year quarterback out of Eastern Illinois University. If that school sounds familiar it’s because it is the home of Dallas Cowboy quarterback Tony Romo.

I wish I could research just how many schools have produced less starting NFL quarterbacks than EIU, but that would take too long. And would be very sad for many fanbases to soak in.

I have no stats to provide for Garoppolo, mainly because his four passing attempts aren’t a big enough sample size to make any assumptions, but I do know that he was drafted and has been groomed to be Tom Brady’s backup. And whether or not it was one of the most outrageous things ever that he is now the starter because commissioner Roger Goodell was hell-bent on suspending arguably the NFL’s greatest quarterback ever because of some deflated balls, it’s happening and it’s real.

Aside from Brady, the Pats aren’t really losing anything on offense. The run and pass game take a hit in losing Dion Lewis to injury for at least six weeks, but their ultra-talented receiving corps has only gotten better. With the addition of tight end Martellus Bennett, free agent wide out Chris Hogan and rookie receiver Malcolm Mitchell out of Georgia, they’re re-loaded. They are losing wide receiver Brandon LaFell, but he failed to catch a touchdown pass last year and his overall production declined to half of what it was in 2014. Newcomers Hogan and Mitchell will fill that hole in the roster, joining established receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola lined up wide for the Pats.

You didn’t think I forgot about Gronk did you? Well, Rob Gronkowski, the NFL’s top tight end, was featured on the cover of Madden 17. Will the Madden Curse live on? If so, the Pats’ offense might be in trouble without Brady and a cursed Gronk.

Just kidding, Odell Beckham Jr. was a superhero once more and broke the Madden Curse for the rest of time. Gronk, you’re good. Spike on, my friend.

Enough about Brady and his side of the ball, New England also has a really good defense. Despite trading away outside linebacker Chandler Jones, the Patriots have the talent to step in and fill in where Jones makes a whole. The main concern for New England’s front-seven will be the loss of defensive end Rob Ninkovich to a four-game suspension due to use of banned substances.

Behind the defensive line, New England boasts maybe the best linebacker tandem in the quick, athletic Jamie Collins and powerful Dont’a Hightower.

Moving to the secondary, ranked as the third best unit in the league by Pro Football Focus, the Patriots’ defensive backs are anchored by unknown Super Bowl 49 hero turned №1 corner, Malcolm Butler. Safeties Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty help create an elite secondary up in Foxburough.

Yes, Brady, Lewis and Ninkovich are all out to start the season, but the overwhelming talent gap between the Patriots and the rest of the division is too wide for the champs to be dethroned.

Oh, and they still have coach Bill Belichick. They’ll be alright.

This isn’t 2008, Brady will be back soon, and maybe even lead his Pats on a title run in pursuit of his fifth ring.

The Surprise Team: Buffalo Bills

Highly-anticipated rookies Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland are out due to injury, and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus joins the ranks of those suspended for the first four games.

These are three big blows to the Bills’ defense, but the offensive trio of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back LeSean McCoy and receiver Sammy Watkins might be explosive enough to compensate for the tragic losses on defense.

After the release of running back Karlos Williams, McCoy is now the clear №1 back for the Bills, with Reggie Bush there to contribute in the passing game. Watkins exploded in Weeks 11 to 16 of his sophomore campaign, racking up 679 yards and six touchdowns in just six games.

McCoy is looking to get back on track as an elite running back and Watkins is looking to continue his rise to being a top receiver.

At quarterback, Tyrod Taylor had his coming-out party in 2015, finishing with 3,035 passing yards and 20 touchdowns with just six interceptions, while adding 568 yards and four touchdowns with his legs. In his second year as a starter, Taylor is primed to establish himself as one of the league’s premier dual-threat quarterbacks.

Ragland is out for the year, but if Lawson and Dareus can come back strong and re-establish the defense, they should be able to hold opposing teams back enough for the offense to run wild and outscore teams on their way to a playoff appearance.

Taylor, McCoy and Watkins MUST show out and be their best for the Bills to have a chance to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history since 1999.

Let’s make some history.

Most Important Player: Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor

Reference the breakdown above, but:

Taylor is an incredible deep-threat with his arm and makes defenses shake at the knees as a rushing threat. If he can improve his short/intermediate passing, he can truly be an elite quarterback.

If Taylor has this great year we’re talking about, maybe a potential MVP season, the Bills won’t challenge the Pats for the division title, but they can make the playoffs. Which I think would definitely be worthy of the MVP.

FEELS LIKE ’99.

Also, he can completely change the outlook for your fantasy team. So he’s an important guy!

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AFC North by David Bradford

(Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers)

A team with every player on offense suspended. A team that lost 43 percent of its salary cap to season-ending injuries last year. A team with a ginger at quarterback, but he got soul. And a team that will completely deflate all of the momentum set by its NBA counterpart. This is…the AFC North.

Who Will Win: Cincinnati Bengals

Another year, another first-round playoff exit for the Cincinnati Bengals. Except unlike previous years where the Bengals simply appeared anemic in their playoff exits, Cincinnati collapsed against Pittsburgh in the Wild Card Round.

We all know the story: Jeremy Hill’s untimely fumble set up a controversial hit by linebacker Vontaze Burfict, setting up a Steeler game-winning field goal.

But despite losing in the Wild Card Round for the fifth-consecutive season and losing a number of key pieces on both sides of the ball, the Bengals are still well-equipped to take the North.

It all starts with the Red Rifle himself, Andy Dalton. While Dalton is largely criticized for the team’s playoff woes, there’s no denying that the TCU-product was in the midst of an MVP-caliber season before injuring his thumb against Pittsburgh late in the season.

Dalton threw 25 touchdown passes compared to only eight interceptions and finished fifth overall in QBR. Despite the Bengals losing wide receivers Mohammad Sanu and Marvin Jones to free agency, AJ Green remains an elite wide receiver, while Tyler Eifert — when healthy — is Gronk North.

Defensively, this team has the talent to slow down Pittsburgh’s explosive offense, keep Joe Flacco in check and prevent RG3 from putting on a fireworks show with Josh Gordon and Terrelle Pryor. Losing Reggie Nelson hurts the secondary, but Geno Atkins is a premier defensive tackle, while Burfict — penalties aside — remains a high-impact linebacker.

Cincinnati does face a daunting early season schedule, traveling to the Jets, Steelers, Cowboys and Patriots, while hosting the Broncos and Dolphins all within the first six weeks. If the Bengals manage to survive such a brutal stretch with a 4–2 record, then the division crown will be within grasp.

When observing the other teams in the division, each features a glaring hole. Pittsburgh’s offense won’t compensate enough for its inconsistent defense. The Ravens have the coaching and experience, but don’t possess the same quality defense they once had. And Cleveland…well…they are who we think they are.

As a side note, due to the injustice that occurred at the Cincinnati Zoo during the offseason, expect 2016 to be an emotional roller coaster for Cincinnati. They’re without their inspiration, without their sweet prince, without life’s reason. RIP Harambe.

The Surprise Team: Baltimore Ravens

As mentioned before, the Ravens lost 43 percent of their salary cap to season-ending injuries last season, including quarterback Joe Flacco and linebacker Terrell Suggs. With a rash of devastating injuries, its no wonder the Ravens finished last season 5–11, resulting in only the second season since 2008 Baltimore failed to reach the playoffs.

The defense won’t be as formidable as years past and the running game is a huge question mark after the departure of Justin Forsett. At the same time, when have the Ravens ever been a conventional playoff team? Sure, they’ve featured strong defenses, but never plowed through regular seasons in dominant fashion.

Wins come by ugly in Baltimore. And while many believe the North belongs to Pittsburgh this season, don’t count out the Ravens as a serious Super Bowl contender. They’ve always managed to discover ways to win games when they matter the most.

Most Important Player: Pittsburgh HB Le’Veon Bell

The Steelers are expected to have the league’s most high-octane offense. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is one of the league’s top quarterbacks and wide receiver Antonio Brown catches everything. The offense won’t be at its highest form initially, as star running back Le’Veon Bell must first serve a three-game suspension to start the season.

Once Bell returns, his ability to navigate through holes and catch passes out of the backfield like a receiver will signify Pittsburgh’s claim as the league’s top offense. Having said that, in his three-year career, Bell has struggled to stay on the field, whether due to suspension or injury. If Bell remains healthy, the Steelers’ offense won’t be one any defense wants to take on.

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AFC South by David Bradford

(Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans)

A team with a sensitive giant at quarterback. A team with a book-club operator at quarterback. A team with a garbage time king quarterback. And a team with a quarterback at quarterback. This is…the AFC South.

Who Will Win: Indianapolis Colts

Interestingly enough, the Colts don’t have the division’s strongest roster, and an argument can be made that they don’t even possesses the second-strongest roster in the AFC South.

But as long as quarterback Andrew Luck remains healthy, the Colts will win the AFC South for the third time in four seasons. Luck’s value to the team and significance within the context of the division doesn’t always show up on the stat sheet. His strongest attribute is his ability to discover ways to win despite such a lackluster supporting cast.

Just how lackluster are they? To say Indianapolis lacks a running game is an understatement. Not only do the Colts consistently finish near the bottom of the barrel in rushing yards per game, but they haven’t experienced a 100-yard rusher since Week 16 of the 2012 season.

To make matters worse, the pass protection is arguably worse than the run blocking. From 2012 until 2014, no offensive line allowed more quarterback hits than Indianapolis’. Defensively, the Colts often fail to slow down offenses outside of the AFC South.

Despite a plethora of shortcomings, Luck is the modern day version of John Elway and can carry teams that would otherwise miss the postseason into the playoffs. As much as Jacksonville and Houston continue to improve, neither have the quarterback play to overtake Indianapolis.

The Surprise Team: Houston Texans

The addition of Brock Lobster during the offseason didn’t turn any heads. Given he had years to learn behind Peyton Manning and still managed to get benched for the aging noodle arm, Osweiler is in no position to earn the money he’s earning. Yet, there he is, in his 6-foor-7 glory, making Colin Kaepernick type money.

As for his supporting cast, the Texans won the division last year despite having Brian Hoyer under center. That’s the result of a weak division ladies and gentlemen. But throwing to DeAndre Hopkins and handing the ball of to Lamar Miller does make life simpler for Osweiler. And then there’s JJ Watt and a star-studded defensive line.

Osweiler doesn’t need to put up MVP-caliber stats for the Texans to take the division. As long as Watt continues to perform at a historically-high level and Hopkins keeps on making miraculous grab after miraculous grab, Houston has lift off.

Most Important Player: Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck

It’s no secret that the division rides on the arm of Luck. Before injuries derailed his 2015 campaign, Luck showed steady improvement over his first three seasons. In 2014, Luck led the NFL with 40 touchdown passes and helped the Colts achieve their third-consecutive 11-win season.

At the same time, Luck also needs to improve as a decision maker. The Stanford graduate’s ability to elude pressure grants him the ability to extend plays. The downside is that Luck often refuses to settle and force the issue, resulting in unnecessary interceptions.

Luck is a gunslinger and one of the game’s greatest downfield throwers. But if he truly wants to join the elite quarterback fraternity, Luck must learn to pick his battles wisely instead of engaging in constant aerial warfare.

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AFC West by Dalton King

(Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers)

The Sheriff has left town. Do the Chiefs inherit the West or is Derek Carr and the Raiders really the next big thing in the AFC West? This division might be the most competitive in the NFL.

The Surprise Team is Who Will Win: Oakland Raiders

Boom, hot take.

Finally, the Oakland Raiders have a quarterback for the present and the future.

Over the past 10 years, the Raiders had seven different quarterbacks as their leading passer, with even more suiting up for them throughout those seasons (check out that chart of Raiders’ seasons).

Now, Derek Carr seems to be their quarterback for the next decade.

Carr followed up on an impressive rookie year, passing for 3,987 yards and 32 touchdowns in his second-year in Oakland. Equipped with Amari Cooper, a budding star and Michael Crabtree, experiencing a sort of career rejuvenation, Oakland’s offense is in good hands. In the backfield, Latavius Murray had a pretty good year with just over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns, but the strength lies in the passing game.

The young skill players are there, and this offseason, Raiders’ GM Reggie McKenzie made big moves to further strengthen the offensive line, making a big free-agency splash, signing guard Kelechi Osmele. This addition elevates Oakland’s protection to the second best in the country, according to Pro Football Focus.

Flipping over to the other side of the line of scrimmage, the Raiders boast a scary defensive front. In his third year, Khalil Mack is on his way to rivaling Von Miller as the best outside linebacker in the league, after racking up 15 sacks last year. Mack might be just as good as Miller, he just hasn’t achieved the stardom due to the Raiders just not being in the national spotlight as much. That might change this season if the Raiders jump to the next level. Also at linebacker, Oakland adds Bruce Irvin, a former member of the Legion of Boom in Seattle. At the least, Irvin adds experience from a well-ran defense to this young, budding one about to take a leap.

Backing up an elite front, the secondary has dramatically improved with free agent cornerback Sean Smith from Kansas City, safety Reggie Nelson from Cincinnati and first-round pick safety Karl Joseph. Smith is 6-foot-3, Nelson just grabbed eight interceptions and Joseph was the 14th overall pick in the draft and one of the most promising pro prospects.

With tons of great new additions, the Raiders will take a huge jump from their 7–9 record. With Peyton Manning gone, the Raiders will be the surprise team and WIN the division.

With their great, young talent, refreshed and strengthened by impressive veteran additions, the Raiders will be the most impressive team of 2016.

(This might be a total flop, but I’m going all in)

Most Important Player: Oakland WR Amari Cooper

Cooper’s rookie season ranked among some of the best for a rookie receiver in league history and he even struggled a bit due to a foot injury. He turned in five games with over 100 receiving yards and should improve on his scoring, only reaching the end zone six times in 2015. If Cooper can stay healthy all year, he’s in for a big-time performance as he is the clear top target for quarterback Derek Carr.

Carr and Cooper is about to become an iconic connection, and they’re growing up together in the NFL. What a great narrative.

Amari is the most important player in this division is because the Raider’s offensive success is dependent on his production. If the Raiders take the next step, it will be because he turns in an elite year catching passes and making plays we saw of him at Bama.

This year, Cooper joins the ranks of the great young receivers.