NEWSLETTER 09/06: NFC EDITION
NFC East by David Bradford
(Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, The Washington)
A team with a quarterback named Dak, a team with the best Manning in the league, a team that will receive no brotherly love and a team that is now called The Washington…this is the NFC (L)East!
Who Will Win: The Washington (Redskins)
This selection is by default. If Tony Romo’s back doesn’t shatter, then the Dallas Cowboys win this division running away. And by running away, I mean on the legs of Ezekiel Elliot, who will keep the Cowboys competitive enough to threaten The Washington (Redskins) for the division crown.
But since Romo will miss 6–10 weeks and a quarterback named Dak Prescott lit up the preseason, The Washington (Redskins) will for the second-straight season win the NFC East.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins experienced a breakout season last year, but failed to lead The Washington (Redskins) to victory against a team with a winning record. You like that?
As mentioned, this is a default pick. Jordan Reed is an elite tight end. Josh Norman is a fantastic offseson addition — and his one-on-one battles with Odell Beckham Jr. will be the stuff of legend — but overall, this division is in a state of limbo, with new head coaches and crippled quarterbacks as far as the eye can see.
The Surprise Team: Dallas Cowboys
America’s Team always entertains. Regardless if they’re 12–4 or 4–12, the Cowboys remain in the center of the NFL universe thanks to the drama they generate. Of course Romo would go down in the preseason, thus landing the starting quarterback job in the lap of Dak Prescott, whose performance in the preseason was a more contained version of Tebowmania.
Although we can all agree that a person named Dak needs to be successful, Prescott has his skeptics. The defensive schemes during the preseason are often lemon sherbet, meaning that Prescott’s eye-popping statistics are likely the result of relaxed coverages and players going at half-speed.
But behind an offensive line determined by Pro Football Focus to be the best in all of football, Prescott isn’t entering the seventh circle of hell most rookie quarterbacks do.
Needless to say, the Cowboys go as far as Prescott can take them. There’s little doubt that Ezekiel Elliot will live up to the hype behind a group of punishing run blockers. The defense’s expectations are low, but if Prescott can hold up his end of the bargain, then Dallas might execute its 2014 plan: Control the ball and limit the defense’s opportunity to screw things up.
The Most Important Player: Dallas HB Ezekiel Elliot
If the Cowboys plan on overcoming the odds at quarterback and the entire defensive side of the ball, Ezekiel Elliot and the offensive line must form a perfect marriage. At this point for America’s Team, the window on the Romo era features only a sliver of light, and it could just be a little flashlight from the surgeon operating on his back.
Elliot must perform at an Adrian Peterson-esque level if Dallas plans on making the playoffs. I’m not talking Peterson during his rookie season — which was still spectacular — but I’m talking Peterson circa 2012, when he won the MVP and executed the greatest single season a running back has ever had.
No pressure. Although, behind the league’s strongest offensive line by a country mile, life will be easier for the former Buckeye.
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NFC North by Dalton King
(Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings)
Teddy Bridgewater is out for the season, Jordy Nelson is back and Eddie Lacy isn’t fat anymore? The NFC North might have some action once again.
Who Will Win: Green Bay Packers
With Tom Brady out for four games on suspension, Peyton Manning hanging it up and his favorite target back on the field, Aaron Rodgers will take the field Sunday as the best quarterback in the National Football League.
Over the offseason, he might have been competing for fame due to his little brother’s appearance and victory on The Bachelorette, but now it’s football season and the elder Rodgers brother will dominate television again.
In 2015, Rodgers threw for 3,821 yards, his career-low for a full season. But 2016 already looks brighter with wide receiver Jordy Nelson back from the ACL tear that sidelined him for the entire 2015 season, running back Eddie Lacy back in the shape a pro-running back should be and associate head coach Tom Clements being relieved of his play-calling duties.
Needless to say, the Packers’ wildly efficient offense that dropped from №1 to 11th in DVOA (an advanced statistic measuring play-by-play efficiency) or if you don’t like advanced stats, the offense that dropped from the top scoring offense in the league to the 15th last season, should be back in full-swing.
Defensively, with the team adding young talent to fill the middle of their defense, veteran linebackers Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers will be able to get back to what they do best, attacking from the outside. Controversy surrounded the two stars throughout the preseason with looming PED allegations, but with their names now cleared of any wrongdoing, the two are ready to continue destroying quarterbacks (combined for 17 sacks last season).
Starting fresh seems to be the theme for the Packers in 2016. They’re younger, rejuvenated and rebuilt. And with the Vikings’ loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the season, the Packers will take back the NFC North.
The Surprise Team: Minnesota Vikings
Last year’s division champions and a trendy pick to contend for the Super Bowl in 2016, the Vikings’ hype van totally caught a flat tire last week. In a non-contact injury in practice, Minnesota’s quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered a completely torn ACL and dislocated knee, sidelining him for at least the entire upcoming season.
Now, a 2017 first-round and 2018 fourth-round pick short, the Vikings are bringing on Sam Bradford as Bridgewater’s replacement. As many are saying, this shows the Vikings’ serious intent on contending this season. The window is short, but I think it’s still there for this team.
While they have a new starting quarterback to adjust to, the Vikings have a couple of solid offensive weapons they will turn to. They have arguably the best running back in the NFL in Adrian Peterson (1,485 yards and 11 TDs) and a breakout receiver in Stefon Diggs (52 receptions, 720 yards and four TDs in his rookie year).
But it’s the defense that head coach Mike Zimmer has established as the strength during his time in Minnesota. When Zimmer took over in 2014, the Viking defense rose from worst in the league to 11th best in scoring defense. And last season, finished at fifth.
With a powerful run game and dominant defense in place, this is definitely Bradford’s best situation he’s ever walked into. If he can fit into what they want to do and be an effective quarterback, the Vikings will most definitely contend for the NFC North.
Before Bridgewater’s injury, they were becoming a favorite to win the division. Without him, it will be more of a struggle, but they can turn some heads and control the North division for the second year in a row, even without their QB1.
It’s kind of like Matt Saracen stepping in when the Dillon Panthers tragically lost Jason Street. Except, not really at all. Texas Forever.
Most Important Player: Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
The team I picked to win the division, the Packers, not only return Jordy Nelson from injury but also get back an in-shape Eddie Lacy.
Rushing for over 1,000 yards in 2013 and 2014, the Alabama product became the second Packer in team history to ever rush for over 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons. In 2013, Lacy was named the 2013 AP Rookie Offensive Player of the Year and made Second Team All-Pro.
In 2015, Lacy stumbled around for a pedestrian 758 yards and three touchdowns, fumbling the ball four times. Now, having slimmed down (around 15 to 18 pounds, according to ESPN), Lacy and everyone else can forget about him being out of shape and look forward to if he can produce at or near the same rate as he did his rookie season.
If he can, he will make the Packers a threat in the rushing game again, immediately impacting their offense and in turn, the NFC North race.
Plus, he can once again be a viable option in Fantasy Football. And that could either makes our lives much better or much worse, but that’s just the fun of the game isn’t it?
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NFC South by David Bradford
(Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
A team that soars to new heights of mediocrity, a team that dabbed its way into our hearts and out of a Super Bowl, a team whose quarterback truly doesn’t understand how Father Time work and a team whose quarterback believes contacts are against his religion…this is the NFC South!
Who Will Win and Surprise Team with the Most Important Player: Quarterback Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
THAT’S RIGHT. I SAID IT. COME @ ME!
Let me lay down the law here with some #Facts: Teams that lose the Super Bowl normally suffer a Super Bowl hangover and play less effectively the following season. The Carolina Panthers are a legitimate playoff contender, but they aren’t replicating a 15–1 season.
But this selection has more to do with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback than anything else. In case you haven’t noticed, Jameis Winston is special. Not only will he establish himself as a top-10 quarterback by the end of the 2016 season, but by the time his career is over, he’ll sit comfortably on the sofa of elite quarterbacks in the game’s history, right alongside Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck.
Winston orchestrated two game-winning drives against the Falcons last season and should’ve gone 2–0 against New Orleans as well. While the Bucs’ performances against the Panthers were not something to steal crab legs over, Tampa Bay’s progression from year one in the Winston era will skyrocket in year two.
The connection between Winston and Mike Evans is already baked in chemistry. Once Evans learns how to actually catch a football, the two will replicate a father and son playing catch in the backyard.
We mustn’t forget Doug Martin, who bounced back in dominant fashion last season after catching the injury bug in 2014 and 2015. That balance on offense is crucial in a division with gun slinging quarterbacks. While Winston is himself of the gunslinger mold, winning the time of possession battle ultimately leads to winning the entire war.
Last season, the Bucs were babies on defense, showing flashes of brilliance, but also suffering exposure against more mature offenses. With a season under their belt together, the defense — led by stud defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and underrated linebacker Lavonte David — should make enough strides to match the offensive production.
The Panthers are currently waking up groggy after the pummeling they received from Denver’s defense in Super Bowl 50. Sluggishly plopping out of bed, they don’t recognize the apartment they’re in. Suddenly, they hear the sound of laugher coming from outside the room. Following the sound, and dealing with an inconceivable headache, they soon discover the crazy chick they met at the party last night…she’s making breakfast…and talking about marriage. Teams in the NFL don’t win divisions under these circumstances.
Atlanta, meanwhile, has a red zone problem. And New Orleans has a defensive problem. Both problems either derail a 5–0 start to a season or allow every single quarterback you face to set career highs in multiple offensive categories. The Broncos have the “No Fly Zone”, while the Saints have the “You Can Fly With Unlimited Miles Zone”.
But it all circles back to Winston, who took over a 2–14 squad and positioned them late in the season to make a playoff push. The Bucs fluttered down the stretch thanks to their collective inexperience, but you know what they say about spending time together: You learn who the other person truly is and you either develop chemistry…or slaughter them with an axe. The former is more likely to happen.
Plus, Winston has to be a Jedi Master. There’s no way a blind man can progress the way he did in decision-making last season. All I’m saying Hollywood, is that if Samuel L. Jackson is no longer accepting roles in Star Wars, then Winston is your man.
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NFC West by Dalton King
(Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks)
FOOTBALL IN L.A. IS BACK. Who says no more parties in L.A.? The NFC West will most definitely be a party, and now L.A. is a host for it.
Who Will Win: Arizona Cardinals
Early in the offseason, I was picking the Seahawks to make it back to the Super Bowl. They might, but they’re going to have to start at the Wildcard for the second year in a row, because I am rolling with the Cardinals.
I am incredibly hype for this team, and with good reason.
Last season, they had a franchise-best 13–3 record, won the division and made the NFC Championship. They ended up being throttled by Cam Newton and the Panthers 49–15 in the NFC Championship, but their overall body of work from 2015 and the additions they’ve made in 2016 point to the Cardinals to repeat and even build on their success.
Star safety and spirited leader Tyrann Mathieu, who tore his ACL in Week 15 last December, will be back. They’ve added outside linebacker Chandler Jones via trade and rookie defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche (who I remind you, fell out of a window this offseason but is still a boss) through the draft to bolster a stronger pass-rush.
And they are returning every player who gained a yard for their №1 ranked offense last season.
Their prolific offense returns and even adds a nice piece on the offensive line in right guard Evan Mathis, who Pro Football Focus graded the third-highest guard overall, but is also the oldest starting guard in the NFL. Last season, quarterback Carson Palmer turned in MVP caliber numbers, throwing for 4,761 yards and 35 touchdowns. And David Johnson emerged as an elite running back, racking up eight touchdowns on the ground and four in the passing game.
Oh and yes, Larry Fitzgerald is immortal.
Defensively, oh I could write for hours about this defense, but I will refrain. Adding Chandler Jones (12.5 sacks for the Patriots) and Robert Nkemdiche (three sacks and seven tackles for loss for Ole Miss in 2015) is the ultimate power move to establish an elite pass-rush to accompany their young, dynamic secondary led by two of the league’s best defensive backs Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson.
And let’s not forget the safety-turned-linebacker, Deone Bucannon, who is so unique they had to make a new position for him. Oh and it’s called, “Money Backer”. His versatility is astounding, being the only player last year who tallied 10 tackles and a pick-six in the same game.
Get excited about these guys, they will be the most fun team to watch this season.
The Surprise Team: Los Angeles Rams
Disclaimer: No team other than Arizona or Seattle is winning this division, so this pick is just a team that could do better than what it is expected of them.
Back in L.A. for the first time since ’94, pro football is back.
“I don’t want to go 7–9,” said head coach Jeff Fisher on HBO’s Hard Knocks. “I don’t want to go 8–8. Don’t give me that “7–9 bull — .””
Fisher’s teams have an inescapable curse of anywhere from six-to-eight wins, and in their first season back in Los Angeles, the Rams want to change that.
Giving up four picks in the 2016 NFL Draft (first, two seconds and a third round) and their first and third round picks in 2017, the Rams acquired the top overall pick from the Tennessee Titans.
All for California native, quarterback Jared Goff. He wasn’t just the top quarterback prospect in 2016, he was a symbol of change and a new life in California.
Who knows if Goff will develop into the franchise quarterback they staked all those draft picks on, but the Rams are looking to make a splash in their first year in their new home.
Anchored by star running back Todd Gurley and defensive tackle Aaron Donald, the Rams are beginning to rack up young talent and renovate their franchise.
As a member of the NFC West and quarterbacked by Nick Foles, who threw for more interceptions (10) than he did touchdowns (seven), going 7–9 wasn’t that bad.
The Rams still have a weak, work-in-progress receiving corps that doesn’t really make Goff’s adjustment to the NFL any easier, or whatever quarterback they choose job any easier. Hopefully receiver Tavon Austin can finally make the jump to be a №1 receiver, but that is still in doubt.
Luckily for the Rams, they have Todd Gurley. The reigning Rookie Offensive Player of the Year is looking to up his status from best rookie to best running back in the league.
His rookie campaign, coming off an ACL tear and only 13 games deep, was incredible. The back out of Georgia ran for 1,106 yards, averaged 4.8 yards a carry and scored 10 times. Not to mention, he did all this surrounded by one of the worst offenses in the league.
Defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who Pro Football Focus labeled , “the single-most disruptive force in the NFL during the 2015 season” and named the NFL’s Best Player by their grading system, leads the Rams’ defense.
The secondary is weak, but the Rams’ front seven is legit and a dangerous squad of pass-rushers. Alongside Donald, working to wreck opposing offenses, are defensive ends William Hayes, who emerged last season as a productive pass-rusher, and Robert Quinn who is back healthy for the Rams. In the offseason, they made a big addition to their line landing Dominique Easley, who Pro Football Focus rates as the only more productive pass-rusher than Donald.
There are question marks all around this team, but the elite pass-rush may be enough to disrupt the opposing offenses they’ll face and Gurley is always susceptible of changing a game with his production in the ground game. We haven’t even seen a full season of this guy yet! This year might be special.
After showing they can compete in this division, winning both of their games against the Seahawks in 2015, maybe the Rams can make a bigger splash in their new home than people expected.
Like I stated above, no team not named after a bird will win this division, but the Rams may be a pleasant surprise in 2016.
P.S.: Madden 17 has the Rams playing in the Wildcard round in the opening sequence you have to play. It may already be a done deal, the Rams will make the playoffs because Madden said so.
Most Important Player: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
I said in my preview of the NFC North that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL, due to Brady’s suspension and Manning’s retirement, but don’t think Russell Wilson is taking that as a fact.
In Seattle’s worst season, record-wise, since Wilson became a Seahawk, the quarterback threw for career-highs across the board — 4,024 yards, 34 TDs, with a 68.1 completion percentage and a 110.1 QBR.
This incredible performance landed him First Team All-Pro honors and in the rank of the league’s top quarterbacks. But his historic explosion didn’t even happen until the second half of the season, when Wilson threw for 25 touchdowns, turning over just two interceptions, over the final eight games. During this eight game span, the Seahawks had a 6–2 record after starting just 4–4.
The X-factor of that run? No Marshawn Lynch, he was out.
With Lynch now retired from pro football (man, that felt weird to say), Wilson is THE guy on this Seattle offense now. Now, centered on him, the Seahawks’ offense might expound on that second-half of 2016 run and turn into an offensive juggernaut.
If Wilson can continue to perform at the rate he did at the conclusion of 2016, he for one, can take over Aaron Rodgers’ spot as the league’s top quarterback but also can lead the Seahawks to their third Super Bowl in just four years.
The Cardinals are crazy good this year, but an effort from Russell Wilson like we saw in November and December of 2015 might be too much for the Cardinals to handle to repeat as champions of the NFC West and get another try at advancing to the Super Bowl.
He’s my MVP pick.
