The Elasticity of SXSW
Is this the tech industry event’s “Peak Oil” moment, or are we still a few years off? If it’s elastic to you, what are you choosing to do instead? And if it’s inelastic, why? I have more questions than answers.
Let’s start with definitions. Wikipedia, if you wouldn’t mind:
In physics, elasticity is the tendency of solid materials to return to their original shape after being deformed.
In economics, elasticity is the measurement of how responsive an economic variable is to a change in another.
While I love me some rubber bands, for the purpose of this post, I am talking about the latter.
Oh and also:
Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert’s theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline.
Complaining about SXSW is nothing new. But it is reaching a level of noise that possibly makes it the most talked about thing around SXSW (more than brands, events, celebs, and startups).
“It used to stand for something. Now it’s been taken over by marketers.”
“It used to be fun. Now it’s just stressful.”
The lines are long (for everything).
The signals can barely be heard through the noise (with all those supposed “gonna be the next Twitter!” proclamations).
The tyranny of choice is, well, tyrannical (for everything).
The panels and talks are hit or miss.
Those that are likely to “hit” require fierce preplanning and patience (like “going to get the new iPhone on the day it comes out” kind of preplanning and patience).
And then sometimes you don’t even know about a “hit” because it is in some alphabet soup room in a galaxy far, far away (I’ve spent so much time in the meeting rooms of so many hotels, I could almost recreate their schematics from memory).
Heck, I even joined the pile-on last year (live activations with dynamic data ain’t easy).
What perhaps is new, is an more holistic reflection on the role it has in the industries it champions: Film, Tech, and Music plus new-ish-bees Edu and Eco. If I were to get to the bottom of this question, it would take a good amount of data collecting and analysis. I might take this on at some point.
Falling rather short of that ambitious project for now, let’s just stick to tech and a sampling from my own outreach to a n = 100 base:
This is the first year in the past eight that the attendance from my “usual suspects” is under 50 percent.
And yet — at the same time — attendance in 2015 will likely top the 27 previous years. I reckon I have a sample bias: I did ask a lot of “old timers” (been more than 5 times) whose habits do not represent the wider trend. Because if they did, the numbers would be dropping not rising (I know, duh).
In talking with said old timers, there is a sense that SXSWi is a train barreling towards the gully — throwing more and more branded events, influencer meet-ups, random hotel panels, over booked hotels, lines, trade shows, and pedicabs into the furnace. Mixing metaphors further, should we expect that the quality of the event enters terminal decline (or arguably, continues to terminally decline?) Is this SXSW’s ‘Peak Oil’ moment?
Back to elasticity. It is an interesting concept to think of as it relates to choosing to go to SXSW or choosing to do something else. If you aren’t going this year, SXSW is pretty elastic to you.
For those who are going, the pre-arrival strategy is summed up by the Hyperbole and a Half meme (see right). But once you are there, the events you choose to attend show just how inelastic they are to you. Because you made the choice to book a flight, hotel / Airbnb, RSVP, and show the eff up. Lots of choices led up to your on-site choices.
For the record, I am back in the ring this year attending with my team at Made by Many. We recently launched our Hackaball project on Kickstarter and will be looking to create for it a signal through the noise. I imagine there will be (or has been?) plenty of folks dipping in and out, taking a year off and then coming back. Maybe that keeps the balance.
To survive: I have created a ‘call sheet’ worthy of a multi-site television shoot and sent out corresponding calendar invites to all my colleagues. It covers nearly every minute of each day that — save for the talks we are giving and the salons we are hosting for ~10 people every night — I am pretty sure will go out the window as soon as our boots hit 6th Street.
And despite all the challenges and chaos,
the one thing that I look forward to every year: serendipity.
On that note: I hope to run into you there. Or not. After all, it all depends on how elastic the event is to you.
