2 Weeks Into the NBA Season, What Do We Know (East Edition)?
It’s the middle of November, which is far too early to be making sweeping generalizations about the entire NBA season, but what else is there to do? There were a lot of things that my early predictions for the season have been VERY wrong about, as well as a number of predictions that were very correct. So let’s go through some of my predictions and see what went wrong.
Prediction: Lauri Markkanen will not be a good NBA player
When I wrote my NBA preview piece, I was still carrying a grudge against Lauri Markkanen, a man who I viewed as a symbol for last year’s Arizona team that let me down in the NCAA Tournament. At the time, Markkanen seemed unable to rebound or defend at an NBA level, and he didn’t seem like the type of shot creator who should succeed when thrust into an important role on a team like the Bulls early in his career. However, Markkanen has been something of a revelation for Chicago so far, leading the team in both scoring and rebounding, at 14.5 and 7.8 per game respectively. He’s shooting 35% from three, and has appeared to be far more than the “7 foot Steve Novak” I predicted he would be in the NBA. The “Finnisher” has impressed through 11 games, and has made it clear that he is capable of playing in the NBA
Outcome: Wrong
Prediction: D’Angelo Russell will shine for the Brooklyn Nets
D’Angelo Russell is still only 21 years old and is now 3 years removed from being the 2nd pick in the NBA Draft. He showed flashes of talent while playing for the Lakers, but he seemed to be a problematic character in the locker room. When the Lakers traded Russell to the Nets to free space at the point guard for Lonzo Ball, I expected Russell would be a classic good numbers on a bad team guy in Brooklyn. I guessed that Russell would score 22–23 points a game and dish out around 5 assists in my preview, and he has done almost exactly that. Through 12 games Russell is scoring 20.9 points per game and dishing out 5.7 assists per game. However he’s shooting a disappointingly low 29.5% from three, a career low, and his free throw shooting is at a career low 68.3%. If those numbers approach his career averages of 35% and 75%, Russell will contend for Most Improved Player as I predicted, while playing for an all-offense, no-defense Nets team.
Outcome: Correct
Prediction: Kristaps Porzingis is not a go-to scorer
Wow. Kristaps has been incredible through 12 games, averaging 29.5 points per game, 7.3 rebounds per game, and 2.17 blocks per game. He’s been incredible. Frank Ntilikina has been decent, and incredibly, with Ntilikina and Porzingis the Knicks have an offensive efficiency of 131.2 and a net efficiency rating of +44.7, both of which are the best in the league for a two-man duo (per ESPN Stats & Info). Porzingis has also been incredibly efficient, his PER sits at 28.9, and he’s been shooting 41.7% from three.
Outcome: VERY VERY Wrong
Prediction: Victor Oladipo will thrive on the Pacers
Myles Turner has been sidelined for half of the Pacers 14 games, but more importantly for the Pacers, Victor Oladipo has been extremely impressive. He’s put up 23.4 points per game, and most importantly, a career best 21.2 PER. Oladipo has been good, and the Pacers are in contention for the 8th seed in the East.
Outcome: Correct
Prediction: The Magic won’t be good
So this might not be much of a prediction but the Magic currently sit at the 5th seed in the east and are 8–6. What? Aaron Gordon is shooting threes, and so is Vucevic? Everything about this makes next to no sense, but kudos to the Magic for being good.
Outcome: Wrong
Prediction: Taking the Under on Detroit at 38.5 wins
The accuracy of this prediction is still very much to be determined, but right now the Pistons are 10–3 and they’re second in the East. They could collapse quickly, as there are a lot of factors that could very well flip that are keeping Detroit afloat. First, Tobias Harris is scoring 20.1 points per game and is shooting 50.6% on threes. Maybe he’s taken the leap, but I’d still say it’s equally likely that he’s overperforming and will fall back to earth at some point. Second, Andre Drummond is shooting 63.2% from the free throw line, a signifigant improvement on his career percentage of 38.9%. There are a lot of things that can go wrong in Detroit, but the early indicators show that Detroit is probably better than an 8 seed in the east.
Outcome: Wrong (For Now)
Prediction: Malik Monk will be good
Let’s preface this by saying that Monk is shooting 34.1% from the floor. That’s really bad. 9.6 points per game is decent, but I expected more from him, and I thought he’d be great right away. This was clearly wishful thinking on my part, and Malik Monk is just not that ready yet.
Outcome: Wrong
Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo is a future MVP
We might be able to drop the word “future” from this prediction and still have it be correct. Giannis has been incredible through 13 games, averaging 31.3 points per game and 10.4 rebounds. His numbers might take a hit with the addition of Eric Bledsoe to the Bucks, but the move may help his MVP chances. Giannis will put up great numbers this season, but his MVP campaign hinges on how well the Bucks do this season. Without a doubt, Giannis will win an MVP at some point barring injury.
Outcome: Correct
Prediction: Taking the Cavs over 53.5 Wins
Can LeBron actually drag this team to 54 wins like I said he would? At this point I’m not sure that they’re going to end up grabbing a top 3 or 4 seed in the East. The Defense is a mess, and LeBron can’t do everything all the time, as much as he tries to. They’re 7–7 with bad losses to some teams that aren’t great. I think this prediction is wrong for now.
Outcome: Wrong (For Now)
Prediction: Everything About the Celtics
Twelve games in a row, all without Gordon Hayward. I was watching live when it happened, and I thought for sure the season was over, there was no way that this team was beating the Cavaliers. I might be crazy, but I’ve got hope. The defense has been extremely impressive, Kyrie has consistently been working to make the right play on offense rather than playing isolation all the time, Jayson Tatum is way better than I expected, and Jaylen Brown has gotten so much better. The thing that worries me, is that if this team doesn’t have Al Horford for some injury-related reason come playoff time, they’re in trouble. As much as I grieved his $30,000,000 a year Contract when it was signed, this season the Celtics are 9.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court, and I don’t think Aron Baynes can start at center for a title contender. Regardless, this is a good team, that just needs to stay healthy. If they do that, they could capitalize on the struggling Cavaliers to earn the honors to lose to the Warriors in the finals.
Outcome: A Good Basketball Team
