2 Weeks Into the NBA Season, What Do We Know (West Edition)?
It’s the middle of November, which is far too early to be making sweeping generalizations about the entire NBA season, but what else is there to do? There were a lot of things that my early predictions for the season have been VERY wrong about, as well as a number of predictions that were correct. So let’s go through some of my predictions for the western conference and see where things stand.
Prediction: The Kings are bad, and they should let De’Aaron Fox learn on the job
We have definite confirmation that the Sacramento Kings are not a good basketball team, and that they should not make the playoffs this season after beginning the season with a 3–10 start. However, there are some bright spots on this team. De’Aaron Fox is leading the Kings in minutes played and has a 25.3% usage percentage, which trails only Zach Randolph among starters. Fox has not shot the basketball particularly well, highlighted by his 40.9% effective field goal percentage and 19% three point percentage. However, Fox has shone in moments, and he leads the team in assists at 5.2 per game. Fox isn’t a bad free throw shooter (71.1%) and is shooting 35% on two point jumpers that are more than 16 feet from the basket, so I firmly believe there is hope for Fox to develop three point range. The Kings aren’t going to win many games, so it seems they’ve made the right decision to hand Fox the keys to the team.
Outcome: Correct
Prediction: Kyle Kuzma might be the steal of the draft
Kyle Kuzma has barely missed a beat since the summer league and preseason. He’s putting up 14.9 points per game, 6.8 rebounds per game, and has an effective field goal percentage of 55.5%. Kuzma has looked fantastic, but the flip side of the coin is that the Lakers have been 2.4 points per 100 possessions better when Kuzma is on the bench. However, Kuzma was taken with the 27th pick, and no other player taken outside the lottery has had as large of an impact as Kuzma thus far in the season.
Outcome: Correct
Prediction: Lonzo Ball is a truly gifted passer
I’d like to walk back on the claim I made here and analyze the start of Lonzo’s rookie year. The most important issue with his game right now is that it seems that he can’t shoot very well: 25% on threes, 35.7% on twos, and 50% on free throws. Obviously, Lonzo has only played 13 games, but nevertheless I think this is a major issue. Lonzo’s best performances were against Phoenix, Milwaukee, Washington, and New Orleans, who rank 29th, 23rd, 10th, and 14th in defensive rating. Beyond Lonzo’s shooting, I’m concerned about whether or not Lonzo is an NBA level ball-handler. He has a tendency to not hold onto the ball for very long, which one could argue is what makes him a great passer, but for an NBA point guard that concerns me. At this point in time, I don’t believe Lonzo can win a championship or make the playoffs as the best player and primary ball-handler on his team. He’s a fantastic passer who I believe would be better suited as an off the ball playmaker and potential spot up shooter on a playoff team.
Outcome: Borderline
Prediction: Dallas will win less than 35.5 games
At 2–13, Dallas has the worst record in basketball, and I don’t see that changing any time soon. Rick Carlisle seems to have a personal vendetta against Nerlens Noel and refuses to play him. The Mavericks are 12 points per 100 possessions worse with Dirk Nowitzki on the court, mostly because he’s nearly immobile and can’t play defense. Dennis Smith Jr. looks good, but that’s pretty much the only bright spot on this abysmal Dallas team.
Outcome: Correct
Prediction: Health is the keyword for the Clippers
Danilo Gallinari has missed the last 4 games, and Patrick Beverley has missed the last 3. The Clippers are on a 6 game losing streak, and after starting the season 5–2, they’ve now dropped to 5–8. The teams they’ve lost to on this streak aren’t bad (Memphis, Miami, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Philadelphia), however it’s clear that they need to remain healthy to have any chance at long term success over the course of the season. What remains to be seen is whether they can stay healthy enough to make the playoffs or if they’ll stumble if or when Blake Griffin, Gallinari, or Beverley goes down with a longer-term injury.
Outcome: Correct
Prediction: The Rockets will win less than 55.5 games
It is still far too early to be making any significant statements about the entire season, however, the Rockets have raced to an 11–4 start without Chris Paul. As much as I believe that Chris Paul is one of the best point guards the NBA has seen in the last 20 years, I think the Rockets might actually be better without him. Paul is expected back on Thursday night against the Suns, and the outcome of the Rockets team depends entirely on whether or not they can find a way to integrate Chris Paul into their system better or if they’re able to convince him to accept a reduced role. In the one game Paul has played in this season, he walked away with a plus/minus of -14, which will not suffice if the Rockets hope to succeed. If the Rockets can figure out Paul’s role, they should break 55.5 wins.
Outcome: Wrong
