2018–19 NBA Regular Season Standings Predictions
With the new NBA season beginning tomorrow, I’ve finally decided to put together my preseason thoughts for this year. I was ready to write this piece 2 weeks ago, but with the Jimmy Butler drama I decided to wait until that trade was inevitably made. So I waited… and waited… and waited. Jimmy Butler is still a Minnesota Timberwolves player as the season is about to begin, so it’s time to finally put pen to paper (or fingers to keyboard) on my predictions.
Eastern Conference Standings
The Eastern Conference isn’t as weak as it has been in previous years, and I doubt we’ll have a repeat of last season. Four of this year’s first five picks belonged to Western Conference teams, and I expect that to swing the other direction this season. The bottom of the West is better than it was last year, and the bottom of the East is littered with bad teams.
First Seed: Boston Celtics (Atlantic Division 1st Place)
As a classic Boston sports fan, I don’t want to write too much about this Celtics team and risk jinxing them. The Celtics finished second in the East last season without Gordon Hayward and with a limited Kyrie Irving. The roster is one of the deepest in basketball, and as a result they have the luxury of easing Hayward back into a significant workload. This season is year two for Jayson Tatum and year three for Jaylen Brown, both of whom should take steps forward. In Brad Stevens, the Celtics have one of the best coaches in the NBA. This team doesn’t even need to get anything out of first round pick Robert Williams (AKA Big Sleep), but he has the athletic upside to become an excellent player to add to the rotation. Despite facing the toughest division in the East, I still think the depth, coaching, and talent of this Celtics team is good enough to lead them to the top of the conference.
Second Seed: Toronto Raptors (Atlantic Division 2nd Place)
Kawhi Leonard, despite having an internet-famous laugh, is very good at basketball. New head coach Nick Nurse was largely credited for the Raptors revamped offense last season, and while the changes faded in the playoffs, he should bring innovation to the head coaching role after the departure of Dwayne Casey. After being swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers and LeBron James in last season’s playoffs, the Raptors traded for Kawhi Leonard, one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball. Over the course of his career, Leonard has finished in the top 20 in the league in Defensive Win Shares every season (except last year, when he played 9 games) since his rookie year, when he finished 23rd (NBA Stats). On offense, Leonard has had an effective field goal percentage over 50% every year for his career, a mark DeRozan hasn’t surpassed since his rookie season. While most basketball fans could tell you that Leonard is a better player than DeRozan, it is in the crucial areas of defense, offensive efficiency, and three point shooting that Leonard is leaps and bounds ahead of DeRozan. These three areas are key areas of the game where the Raptors have stumbled in the past, and assuming Leonard is healthy, Toronto has the chance to be one of the best teams in the East.
Third Seed: Milwaukee Bucks (Central Division 1st Place)
60 wins. New Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer led an Atlanta Hawks team that started Al Horford, Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll, Kyle Korver, and Jeff Teague to 60 wins. Those players are no slouches, but none of them have the kind of talent Giannis Antetokounmpo possesses. Traditional stats show that the 23 year old Giannis averaged 26.9 points per game, 10 rebounds per game, 4.8 assists per game, 1.5 steals per game, and 1.4 blocks per game in his fourth NBA season last year. One of the only flaws in Giannis’s game is his inability to hit threes at a consistent rate, shooting only 30.7% last season. In a modern NBA defined by spacing and the ability to knock down threes, last year’s bucks played Giannis at center in order to space the floor around him. In the offseason, the Bucks added Ersan Ilyasova and Brook Lopez, big men capable of spacing the floor. Ilyasova and Lopez shot 36% and 34.5%, respectively, from beyond the arc last season. Now, with Ilyasova and Lopez in the lineup, the Bucks are capable of spacing the floor around their most dynamic player in Antetokounmpo without forcing him to defend centers. I’m excited to see what Budenholzer can do with Giannis’s unique talents on both ends of the floor this year.
Fourth Seed: Philadelphia 76ers (Atlantic Division 3rd Place)
The 76ers went on a 16-game win streak to close the regular season last year, after being revitalized by mid-season additions Marco Belenelli and Ersan Ilyasova. Both of those players have since moved on, and the 76ers haven’t done much to replace either of them. Star center Joel Embiid played a career high 63 regular season games last season too. The 76ers caught lightning in a bottle to finish the second half of the season 31–10 after a 21–20 start. Ben Simmons will take steps forward in his second season, although he unfortunately won’t switch shooting hands. Markelle Fultz has looked tentative shooting the ball in the preseason, but at least he’s taking threes and midrange jumpers. I think the 76ers regress this year, but not enough to drop them out of first round home court advantage.
Fifth Seed: Indiana Pacers (Central Division 2nd Place)
Immediately following the Paul George trade last season, the Pacers were maligned for getting pennies on the dollar. And then the season started, Victor Oladipo looked like a completely different player, Domantas Sabonis improved and seemed better fitted to his role, and the Pacers finished 5th in the East. In the offseason, the Pacers made two minor acquisitions of Doug McDermott and Tyreke Evans, but both add shooting and scoring to an offense that faltered in the playoffs in crunch time due to an over-reliance on Oladipo. Myles Turner has put in the work on his body to become a better player this offseason. In general, this Pacers team should be every bit as good as they were last season, but I doubt they make any major steps forward.
Sixth Seed: Miami Heat (Southeast Division 1st Place)
The southeast is the weakest division in the Eastern conference, and the Heat seem primed to finish atop the conference. The Heat as currently constituted have a decent roster, but probably not good enough to finish ahead of the Wizards. However, what the Heat do possess is the trade pieces to go out and get a star. They’ve been heavily involved in Jimmy Butler trade talks, and there have been times where that deal seemed inches away from the goal line, but it has yet to be finished. The Heat roster from top to bottom has above average players, and Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the league.
Seventh Seed: Washington Wizards (Southeast Division 2nd Place)
Marcin Gortat was one of the root causes of drama in the Wizards locker room last season, however, having a capable starting center is important. I like the Dwight Howard gamble for the money he’s being paid this year. However, if Howard is injured or ineffective, the Wizards will have to turn to Ian Mahinmi, who is not a starting-level NBA center. John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter is a core that will be good enough to keep the Wizards in the playoffs, but they’ll continue to come up short of true success while their bench is being run by players like Austin Rivers and Jeff Green.
Eighth Seed: Charlotte Hornets (Southeast Division 3rd Place)
The Hornets are a very capable team, and I think they’ll be in a battle towards the end of the season to secure a playoff spot. I really like what I’ve seen from Miles Bridges so far this preseason, I think he’ll have a really good rookie season, and Malik Monk has to have a bounce-back season after his horrible rookie season last year. The big men on the Charlotte roster (Cody Zeller, Frank Kaminsky, and Bismack Biyombo) are all good enough to play solid rotation minutes. In general, picking the Hornets to make the playoffs feels more like a pick against the rest of the East than a strong belief that Charlotte has a good basketball team on their hands.
Ninth Seed: Cleveland Cavaliers (Central Division 3rd Place)
Yes, the Cavaliers no longer have LeBron James, and yes their supporting cast last season was pretty horrible. However, this season’s Cavaliers team is led by Kevin Love, an all star who could see a return to his old Minnesota self, and dynamic rookie point guard Collin Sexton. Surrounding Love and Sexton, the Cleveland roster has veterans like George Hill and Kyle Korver as well as former young talents like Rodney Hood and Larry Nance. The Cavaliers aren’t as bad as some would make them out to be, and they’ll push for the final playoff spot. In the end, their season will come down to Kevin Love’s health and how well Collin Sexton can impersonate Kyrie Irving’s rookie season.
Tenth Seed: Detroit Pistons (Central Division 4th Place)
The Pistons have one of the most confusing rosters in the league, with big men Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond leading the way. New head coach Dwayne Casey will attempt to solve the puzzle of making use of Griffin and Drummond alongside starters Reggie Jackson and Stanley Johnson, both of whom shot less than 31% from three last season. Reggie Bullock and Luke Kennard will have to carry the floor-spacing load for this Pistons team, with Jose Calderon the only other player on the roster shooting above 35% from three last season. With injury concerns for Griffin, who hasn’t played more than 70 games since 2013–14, the outlook for the Pistons this season appears rather dull.
Eleventh Seed: Chicago Bulls (Central Division 5th Place)
I think Wendell Carter Jr. will have a really solid season after a strong preseason in which he averaged 11.9 points and 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes (NBA Stats). Sophomore Lauri Markannen should take another step forward after a good rookie season. Chicago native and summer addition Jabari Parker will add scoring to a Bulls roster that already has plenty of it. Zach LaVine is hopeful to complete this season fully healthy while providing the Bulls with good backcourt scoring. The problem with the Bulls, however, is the defense. Parker, LaVine, and Markannen are all below average defenders, and the bench isn’t loaded with good defenders either. Chicago may lose a lot of shootouts this season.
Twelfth Seed: New York Knicks (Atlantic Division 4th Place)
If new head coach David Fizdale is smart and Knicks ownership has confidence in him for the future, they should prioritize developing their youth over winning games. Star forward Kristaps Porzingis is still recovering from a torn ACL, and shouldn’t be rushed back to the court. Outside of rookies Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson and sophomore Frank Ntilikina, there’s little for the Knicks to be excited about this season. There’s a path for the Knicks to be good next year: If Knox and Robinson develop well, Ntilikina strengthens his feel for the NBA game, Porzingis get healthy, the Knicks get a high draft pick and a marquee free agent next summer, they could be a contender next season. But as for this season, the Knicks should keep their expectations low.
Thirteenth Seed: Brooklyn Nets (Atlantic Division 5th Place)
For the first time since 2013, the Brooklyn Nets have the rights to their own first round draft pick, and they could be ready to cash in on it. D’Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris Levert, and Jarrett Allen are good young players, and I really like the Ed Davis signing, but there’s simply not enough talent on Brooklyn’s roster to contend for a playoff spot.
Fourteenth Seed: Orlando Magic (Southeast Division 4th Place)
The Magic have some really interesting, talented frontcourt players in Jonathan Isaac, Aaron Gordon, 2018 first round pick Mo Bamba, and Nikola Vucevic. The issue is, none of those players are capable ball handlers. The ESPN depth chart for the magic lists D.J. Augustin as the starting point guard, with Jerian Grant as the backup. Evan Fournier represents the best backcourt talent on the Magic roster. In a league that’s becoming more and more focused on guards, the Magic’s roster continues to be more and more lacking in those positions. They’re poised for another return to a high lottery pick this season.
Fifteenth Seed: Atlanta Hawks (Southeast Division 5th Place)
The 2018–19 Atlanta Hawks will hand the keys to their offense to Trae Young. Young might put up big counting numbers, but this Hawks team is not going to win many games. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince are decent on the wing, and John Collins seems like a promising young big man, but this team is still at least a few years away, and their offense will likely be far from efficient. Trae Young is far more likely to win rookie of the year than the Hawks are to make the playoffs.
Western Conference Standings
The Western Conference has a reputation for being the better of the two conferences, and this year it may be for a different reason. In previous seasons, the West has been home to a greater percentage of the league’s elite teams than the East. This season, the elite teams may be more evenly balanced, but the West will be a far deeper conference with 13 teams who I believe could reasonably push for the playoffs.
First Seed: Golden State Warriors (Pacific Division 1st Place)
The Rockets may have beaten the Warriors out for the number one seed in the West last season, but it’s nearly impossible to pick against the Warriors dynasty. I don’t think the DeMarcus Cousins signing makes as much of a massive difference as basketball twitter seemed to think from the immediate outrage when he signed in Golden State. Cousins is returning from a torn ACL, an injury notorious for limiting the explosiveness of players when they return. For Cousins, a big guy, limited explosiveness could be a big issue, especially given the pace and tempo the Warriors usually play with. The biggest boon the Cousins offers the Warriors is a player to battle the best big men in the Western Conference like Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, and others. The Warriors lost a few role players from their championship roster, but they’ve filled all the holes that needed filling, and they’ve still got Durant, Curry, Thompson, and Green, which will be enough to earn them the top seed in the West playoffs.
Second Seed: Houston Rockets (Southwest Division 1st Place)
The Rockets lost Luke Mbah a Moute and Trevor Ariza to free agency this summer, and to fill the void on the wing they added Carmelo Anthony. Many sports personalities have raised gripes about whether Anthony is still a capable NBA starter, but for the veterans’ minimum contract the Rockets signed Anthony to, I think he’s worth the gamble. In four preseason games this year with the Rockets, 63.2% of Anthony’s shot attempts were threes, up from 40.7% during the regular season last year with the Thunder (NBA Stats). If Anthony is effective in those shots, he’ll fit right in with Houston. Stars James Harden and Chris Paul still headline one of the best backcourts in the league, with Eric Gordon playing his role as one of the best sixth men in basketball. What is new for the Rockets this season, is the decision to take on some players much of the league would consider failed projects in Marquese Chriss and Michael Carter-Williams. Mike D’Antoni’s Rockets will likely regress from their 65 wins last season, but Daryl Morey has still assembled one of the best rosters in basketball.
Third Seed: Utah Jazz (Northwest Division 1st Place)
The Utah Jazz return the same roster that allowed them to finish last season as one of the hottest teams in the league after the all star break, with a point differential of +10.3 per game and an 18–6 record. They came into the playoffs hot, upset the Thunder in 6 games before faltering to the Rockets after Ricky Rubio went down with an injury. Last season’s standout rookie Donovan Mitchell enters his second season with the opportunity to continue proving that he’s one of the best young stars in the league. Last season’s Jazz team finished second in defensive rating and opponents points per game behind only the Celtics and Spurs, respectively (Basketball Reference). Coach Quin Snyder is one of the best in the league, and the Jazz’s defense will be every bit as good as it was last season. After the all-star break, the Jazz allowed opponents only 95.4 points per game. The Jazz should continue their momentum from last season into this season with a near identical roster, the only change to the rotation will be the addition of newly drafted Duke guard Grayson Allen.
Fourth Seed: Los Angeles Lakers (Pacific Division 2nd Place)
It’s safe to say LeBron James is pretty good at basketball. He’s led his teams to the NBA Finals each of the last 8 seasons, including three finals victories. That streak seems likely to end this year with the young Lakers in the middle of a stacked Western Conference. JaVale McGee is the only battle tested big man on the roster, and the Lakers may even experiment with using Kyle Kuzma at center. Brandon Ingram seems poised for a breakout season next to LeBron James. The key to watch with the Lakers is how Luke Walton lines up his backcourt rotations with Rajon Rondo, Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Lance Stephenson. At the end of the day, LeBron guarantees the Lakers a playoff spot, although I don’t think he’ll be able to carry them any higher than a fourth seed.
Fifth Seed: Oklahoma City Thunder (Northwest Division 2nd Place)
The injury bug is already hitting the Oklahoma City Thunder early in the season. Last year they had one of the league’s best defenses when lockdown defensive guard Andre Roberson was healthy, but without him they regressed to being just above average. To start the season, Roberson is out until at least December, and Russell Westbrook is expected to miss the season opener after undergoing a knee procedure in early September (Source). The departure of Carmelo Anthony, who was ineffective in his time with the Thunder, should help. New backup guard Dennis Schroder should fill the Reggie Jackson role of the Thunder’s glory days in the early 2010s, coming off the bench to take over a game occasionally. The Thunder should be good this season, but they won’t be as good as they were at their peak last season.
Sixth Seed: Denver Nuggets (Northwest Division 3rd Place)
The Nuggets came up just 6 points short of the playoffs in an overtime loss to the Timberwolves on the last day of the 2017–18 season. This year, with a healthy Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray ready for a breakout year, a hungry Isaiah Thomas on a minimum contract, the Nuggets seem poised for a major step forward. Nikola Jokic, one of the best passing big men in basketball, got paid this offseason, and the pressure will be on him to perform. There’s no timetable for the return of 2018 draft picks Michael Porter Jr. and Jarred Vanderbilt from injuries, but if either returns and is healthy before the end of the year, both could be key contributors. Paul Millsap only played in 37 games last season, and a full season from the 33 year old could help push the Nuggets into the playoffs.
Seventh Seed: New Orleans Pelicans (Southwest Division 2nd Place)
Anthony Davis is one of the best players in the league, and the 2018 season proved it. Davis put up big numbers, and the Pelicans swept the Blazers in the first round of the playoffs behind standout showings from Davis and returning guard Jrue Holiday. However, the flaw in the Pelicans team remains shooting. Solomon Hill and Julius Randle shot 19% and 22.2% from three in the regular season last year — both may start at the forward positions this year. Nikola Mirotic offers good floor spacing, but Mirotic can’t share the floor with both Randle and Davis for defensive reasons. E’Twaun Moore will need to replicate his 42.5% three point shooting from last season to keep the Pelicans rolling. They performed every bit as well without DeMarcus Cousins as they did with him, so there is no reason to believe that they’ll regress too much from last season.
Eighth Seed: San Antonio Spurs (Southwest Division 3rd Place)
DeMar Derozan is not a better basketball player than Kawhi Leonard. HOWEVER, 82 games of DeMar Derozan will be an improvement on the 9 games of Kawhi Leonard that the 2017–18 Spurs got. Despite receiving only 9 games of playing time from their superstar, the Spurs still went 47–35 to make the playoffs. DeJounte Murray’s torn ACL is bad news for the Spurs, and it means Patty Mills will start at point guard. Furthermore, Derrick White, a young guard from the University of Colorado showed some flashes as a rookie in limited minutes last season, but he too is down with an injury. Until White comes back in 6–8 weeks, the backcourt depth for the Spurs is lacking. Despite this, I have the ultimate faith in Gregg Popovich to lead the Spurs to the playoffs. LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, and Rudy Gay return from last year’s playoff team. And come on: It’s the Spurs! They’ll make the playoffs.
Ninth Seed: Portland Trail Blazers (Northwest Division 4th Place)
This is a long way to fall for Portland after finishing third in the West last season, but their poor playoff showing while being swept by the Pelicans was concerning. Furthermore, if the Blazers are unimpressive as the trade deadline approaches, either McCollum or Lillard could be on the trading block to break up and rebuild the core of Portland’s team. The Trail Blazers let key role player Ed Davis go in free agency, and they’ll be looking for Sophomore Zach Collins to take a step forward this season. After seeing how dismal they looked in last year’s playoffs, I may just be scarred by this team, but I simply cannot see them as a lock for the playoffs.
Tenth Seed: Minnesota Timberwolves (Northwest Division 5th Place)
As a true Minnesotan would say: Uffda. There’s been no shortage of drama surrounding the Timberwolves in the last two weeks after Jimmy Butler requested to be traded. Now, on the eve of the NBA season’s opening night, Jimmy Butler is still on the Timberwolves roster, despite showing up at practice to berate the coaching staff and other players. Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the most talented young big men in basketball, and Andrew Wiggins has the elite athleticism to be a superstar. Despite this, the young Wolves have yet to put the pieces together, and Wiggins appears to have been overpaid by his max contract extension. Draft picks Keita Bates-Diop and Josh Okogie should be good young wing players for Minnesota, but it remains to be seen how long of a leash coach Tom Thibodeau will give them. This team has all of the pieces in place for a mid-season blow-up or trade, and it seems less likely they’ll make the playoffs than teams like the Spurs, Pelicans, and Trail Blazers.
Eleventh Seed: Dallas Mavericks (Southwest Division 4th Place)
Luka Doncic has looked impressive in the preseason, putting up 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game, and shooting 43.5% from behind the arc. The 19 year old Slovenian superstar is allowing Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks to move Dennis Smith Jr. off the ball, where he’ll have the opportunity to knock down catch-and-shoot threes and slash to the rim. Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes are effective wing options when they aren’t asked to be focal points of the offense, and new summer signing DeAndre Jordan provides a solid pick-and-roll partner to Doncic. Doncic is my rookie of the year pick, as he’s a talented player with plenty of experience against grown men from his time playing in the second best basketball league in the world. This is likely Dirk Nowitzki’s final season in the NBA, and I feel pretty good about the future of the Mavericks.
Twelfth Seed: Los Angeles Clippers (Pacific Division 3rd Place)
There’s talent on the Clippers roster, but I don’t think the pieces fit together quite they way they need to in order to make the playoffs. The backcourt is stacked 6 deep with Patrick Beverley, Milos Teodosic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Avery Bradley, Lou Williams, and Jerome Robinson. Unless Doc Rivers trots out lots of 3-guard lineups, there’s not enough playing time to go around for those 6 players. When healthy, Danilo Gallinari and Tobias Harris are interesting wing players, but Gallinari rarely stays healthy. Marcin Gortat, received in a trade for Austin Rivers will attempt to fill the hole left by the loss of DeAndre Jordan to free agency. The Clippers won’t be atrocious, especially with that much backcourt talent, but health could be a concern for this team that limits the extent of their success.
Thirteenth Seed: Memphis Grizzlies (Southwest Division 5th Place)
Much like the Clippers, the Grizzlies have real talent, but health will be the limiting factor. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol haven’t both played more than 70 games since 2014–15, and Chandler Parsons can be expected to get injured. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a young, talented big man who could be a future star for the Grizzlies. I love Jackson’s ability to handle guards on switches, as his foot speed makes him a perfect player for the future of the position-less NBA. I have the Grizzlies this low because of injury and trade concerns, as either could derail their season. If everyone stays healthy and the Grizzlies keep this roster intact, they could absolutely make a playoff push, but I don’t see it as likely given the injury history of the players on this roster.
Fourteenth Seed: Phoenix Suns (Pacific Division 4th Place)
Phoenix lacks a proven point guard on their roster, which leaves them two options. The first, safer option, is to use Devin Booker as a ball handler even more frequently. Booker has improved his ball handling and pick-and-roll abilities ever since he entered the league, and could be called upon to play more as the point guard. Alternatively, the Suns used the first pick of the second round on French point guard Elie Okobo. Okobo is talented, with lots of offensive upside, although he’s more proven as a scoring guard than a playmaker. Whoever the Suns choose to use as their lead guard, they need to be able to feed the ball to number one overall pick DeAndre Ayton. Ayton is a physical marvel, a 7'1" 250 lb. man built like a body builder. Ayton’s per 36 stats in the preseason are impressive: 24.4 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per 36 minutes. If he can produce anywhere near those numbers in the regular season, the Suns are in good shape. Young players like Mikal Bridges, Josh Jackson, and TJ Warren all provide the Suns with a bright future, but the team isn’t ready to contend yet.
Fifteenth Seed: Sacramento Kings (Pacific Division 5th Place)
Predicting the Kings to finish last in the West contradicts one of the major principles of basketball. The Kings have no incentive to be bad — their first round pick belongs to either the Celtics or the 76ers, depending on where it falls in the draft. However, the roster is dismal, and I have little hope for their success. De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Buddy Hield, and Harry Giles are all talented young players, but none of them have the talent to carry the Kings to any more than wins in the low or mid twenties.
