2018 NBA Mock Draft
1st Pick (Phoenix Suns): Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona
The Suns have four big men under contract for the 2018–19 season: Tyson Chandler, Alan Williams, Dragan Bender, and Marquese Chriss. Bender and Chriss, both recent Suns draft picks, have yet to pan out the way the Suns hoped they would. Ayton seems as close to a sure thing as this draft has to offer, which makes him a good fit for the suns. Standing 7 feet tall and built like a superhero, Ayton has an NBA ready body and appears to have the lateral quickness necessary to be a switchable defender capable of handling guards in a pinch. He played out of position most of his time in college at Arizona, where coach Sean Miller frustratingly played him at power forward alongside senior Center Dusan Ristic. Ayton didn’t showcase the rim protection skills a player of his size and athleticism should have, although this could be due to being played out of position. Offensively, Ayton has virtually no weaknesses: He’s an excellent finisher around the rim, his shooting range should extend to the NBA three point line, he’s an effective passer, and he rebounds well. The Suns, who’ve struggled for years at center, would do well to take Ayton to play alongside Devin Booker and Josh Jackson for years to come. Ayton projects as a perfect pick-and-roll big man to pair with Devin Booker, who has become better in the pick-and-roll each of his three years in the league.
2nd Pick, Sacramento Kings: Luka Doncic, PG, Real Madrid
Yes, the Kings drafted a point guard last year, in De’Aaron Fox who showed a lot of promise in his rookie season. Doncic they best player available, arguably in the entire draft, so it’s a no-brainer for the Kings to take him 2nd overall. Doncic is a generational passer as a point guard who just so happens to be in the body of a forward. At 6'8" and 228 pounds, Doncic is more than capable of bullying smaller defenders. He’s won pretty much every award and tournament he can playing in the world’s second best league, and he’s only 19 years old. He led Slovenia to its first Eurobasket title ever in 2017, and in just this season he won the EuroLeague championship with Real Madrid while being named EuroLeague MVP and EuroLeague Final Four MVP. One of the biggest transitions college players often have to make when they enter the NBA is adjusting to the length of the season. Doncic has played more than 100 games in the last calendar year, and while his shooting numbers have dipped in recent months, he’s shown he’s capable of handling a long, grueling season. The knocks on Doncic are focused on his athleticism and defense. Defensively, Doncic frequently struggles to contain quicker and smaller guards, so his best fit in the NBA may be to guard less explosive wings. It’s worth noting that in European basketball, as compared to the NBA, places little focus on weightlifting, strength training, and general athletic development. In Doncic’s one break from European competition in the summer of 2017, he traveled to P3, a renowned sports science laboratory in California, in an attempt to unlock more of his athletic potential. Given time and training, Doncic should not be an athletic or defensive liability in the manner he is now. Doncic offers an excellent blend of passing, ball handling, shooting, and should be an excellent NBA player.
3rd Pick, Atlanta Hawks: Jaren Jackson Jr., C, Michigan State
Jaren Jackson Jr. probably won’t be the best player to come out of this draft. That said, Jackson is exactly the type of player that every title contender needs, and he might have one of the highest floors in the draft. I think Jackson is a perfect fit in the frontcourt for the Hawks alongside their 2017 first round pick, John Collins. In his rookie season, Collins showed that he is a good scorer around the rim and a good rebounder, but he isn’t a good rim protector, nor is he a good perimeter shooter. Jackson, on the other hand, projects as a solid perimeter shooter (39.6% on 2.7 3 point attempts per game) and an excellent shot blocker (5.5 blocks per 40 minutes). One of Jackson’s weaknesses however, is that he is inconsistent as a rebounder, often not as physical as he should be when boxing out. What makes Jackson special enough to be a top-3 pick is his combination of rim protection and switchable perimeter defensive ability. Jackson is quick enough to handle being switched onto both guards and wings on the pick-and-roll. The way modern NBA defenses play, Jackson is the type of player who could be a crucial role player on a title-winning team, and he’s also the type of player who could slot into his role on any team in the league. If Jackson remains healthy and doesn’t have a 12+ year NBA career I would be shocked.
4th Pick, Memphis Grizzlies: Marvin Bagley III, Big, Duke
Marvin Bagley III dominated college basketball this season in a way no other player in the draft did, save for Deandre Ayton, averaging 21 points per game and 11.1 rebounds per game. However, there are plenty of remaining questions about just how Bagley’s skill set will translate to the NBA. At Duke, he played mostly power forward, but standing 6'11" with excellent interior finishing and rebounding skills, he might be suited to play center in the NBA. Yet, Bagley only has a 7'0" wingspan, isn’t a good shot blocker, and isn’t strong enough to guard in the paint at a high level, currently weighing only 234 pounds. Bagley shoots only 62.7% on free throws, so I have a hard time believing that his 39.7% on college threes at less than two attempts per game will translate to the NBA. Unless he can clean up his mechanics, Bagley’s range will not extend past deep twos. For the Grizzlies, Bagley’s production in college will be the deciding factor in this pick. The franchise has already stated that they intend to push for the playoffs next season, and with Mike Conley returning from injury, they will undoubtedly be better. The Grizzlies have Marc Gasol under contract for two more years, and they can afford to take that time to determine Bagley’s best positional fit in the NBA. In the meantime, Bagley can fill the Zach Randolph role alongside Gasol formerly present in the grit-and-grind Grizzlies of years past.
5th Pick, Dallas Mavericks: Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
Mo Bamba has the longest wingspan ever recorded for an NBA draft prospect at 7'10", and he stands 7'1" with legs that go on for days. Players as tall and long as Bamba often struggle with coordination issues — that’s not the case for Bamba, who is quite coordinated. Bamba is also rather mobile, with incredibly long strides that allow him to cover ground fast. Bamba, at only 226 pounds, can often be pushed around by stronger opponents, and he isn’t as intense as you might like your defensive anchor of the future to be. Bamba is a three point shooter only in theory, but since the end of his college season, he has been working on his form and shooting with trainers. In the last two months he has shown promising improvement, and videos from workouts of Bamba draining threes have circulated the internet. For Dallas, Nerlens Noel is a free agent who they are unlikely to re-sign. Noel struggled in Dallas because he didn’t get along with coach Rick Carlisle. Bamba, who has attended the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference by personal choice, is the kind of curious thinker and dedicated learner that Coach Carlisle will love to coach. For Dallas, Mo Bamba can be everything they hoped Nerlens Noel would be: Their defensive anchor of the future.
6th Pick, Orlando Magic: Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
I don’t believe Trae Young is the sixth best prospect in this draft, but he could still end up being the best player. He’s also the best choice for the Magic at the sixth pick. Young lead the nation in both scoring and assists, largely due to his ability as a three point shooter. The Magic has a roster full of players who are not shooters but they do have plenty of athletes. Young’s shooting could be a breath of fresh air for a team who needs a point guard, as the Magic have D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack under contract as their point guards. Young is not big, long, or strong enough to handle defending NBA point guards, but with the number of long, athletic players on the Magic roster, Young can be hidden on less dangerous guards while he focuses on leading the offense. While it’s extremely unlikely Young becomes Steph Curry, he has the potential to become a similar weapon of a shooter from deep three point range.
7th Pick, Chicago Bulls: Michael Porter Jr., Forward, Missouri
Porter is a tall, scoring forward, with major injury concerns. I’m no doctor, but spinal disk surgery is concerning to me, especially for a young NBA player. Porter may have come back too soon from this injury, playing three games at the end of the college season, but in those three games Porter looked extremely unimpressive and inefficient. Injury concerns aside, Porter was one of the top 3 prospects before the season began, and the Bulls will hope that player is still in him. Porter has a wonderful shooting stroke, and he’s effective finding space and getting open away from the ball. On the ball, Porter needs to refine his ball handling before he can become an elite scorer — he’s not able to create space for his shot against talented defenders at this point in time. Porter also has the physical tools to potentially be a versatile defender someday, but he still has to develop further as a defender. Unless one or both of them can develop further as rebounders and defenders, Porter and Lauri Markkanen may not fit onto the court next to each other, but the Bulls should take the gamble on Porter, assuming they feel good about his medical history.
Pick 8, Cleveland Cavaliers: Wendell Carter Jr., C, Duke
Cleveland’s entire offseason depends on where LeBron James decides to play next season. If LeBron chooses to leave, the Cavaliers will be bad, and they need to have a plan for the future. If LeBron chooses to stay, they need to upgrade their supporting cast to give themselves a better shot at winning a title. Wendell Carter Jr. should offer help in both cases, regardless of LeBron’s decision. While Carter is obviously not as experienced or as good as Kevin Love, his acquisition may make Kevin Love available for trade. The Cavaliers need versatility from their centers when LeBron is on the court, and both Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson have shortcomings in that role. Love isn’t an effective enough rebounder or defender, and Thompson doesn’t space the floor the way Love does. Wendell Carter’s set of skills offers a little bit of the best of both players. Carter is well-built, and has the soft hands and touch around the rim necessary to be an effective screen setter for LeBron. Carter didn’t shoot threes overly often at Duke, but when he did shoot them, he shot 41.3%, and he showcased sound mechanics which should allow his jumper to translate well to the NBA. Carter is a great rebounder, averaging 9.1 per game in college despite playing many minutes alongside Marvin Bagley III. Defensively, Carter is effective as a rim protector, and light footed enough to cover on switches against quicker players when necessary. If LeBron decides to leave, Carter will get the opportunity to showcase his high basketball IQ and good passing skills, potentially running sets from the top of the key. However, if the Cavaliers can upgrade their roster by packaging this pick with a player like Kevin Love in a trade, they should do so.
Pick 9, New York Knicks: Miles Bridges, Forward, Michigan State
The Knicks lack talent on the wings, so they should take one here. Of the available players, Michigan State’s Miles Bridges seems to be the best fit with the roster the Knicks already have. While Bridges is only 6'7" with a 6'9.5" wingspan, he’s athletic enough and has a thick enough frame to handle defending larger players. The Knicks’ future likely involves playing star Kristaps Porzingis at Center, and in lineups of this type, Miles Bridges is more than capable of playing Power Forward. Bridges is an excellent, high energy rebounder who can help make up for some of the rebounding talent Porzingis lacks if played together in smaller lineups. At his absolute floor, Bridges has a high basketball IQ and is an excellent cutter and screener, which will allow him to be an effective role player at the least. Bridges is also a good spot-up shooter, but he may need to extend his range some in order to be a consistent NBA three point shooter. If his ball handling improves more, Bridges has potential to be a shot-creating scorer, but if not, the Knicks still have an effective, athletic forward who can help them chase a title.
Pick 10, Philadelphia 76ers: Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova
The 76ers have lots of young talent, and are only a piece or two away from being a serious title contender. Shooting Guard J.J. Redick, who earned $23,000,000 last season is a free agent, and it seems unlikely the 76ers would pay a player who is not a great wing defender that much money. Bridges would help the 76ers replace some of Redick’s shooting should the choose to let him go, and regardless of Redick’s status, Bridges may be a better wing defender than any player already on the 76ers roster. Bridges will be one of the oldest rookies this year, and I would be shocked if he becomes a star, but he could one of the best three-and-D players in the league, a perfect sidekick to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. This season, Bridges shot 43.5% on 6 three point attempts per game, and the national championship game showcased his phenomenal catch-and-shoot ability. Bridges, and excellent team player and defender, is 6'7" with a 7'2" wingspan. One of the knocks on the Villanova winger is that he has a tendency to disappear at times, but the Sixers should rely on the playmaking talent of Ben Simmons to keep him involved in the offense.
Pick 11, Charlotte Hornets: Kevin Knox, Forward, Kentucky
The Hornets drafted another Kentucky forward in 2012: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist couldn’t shoot and never developed his jumper. Kevin Knox is different. The Hornets lack quality wings, and Knox should fill that role. At 6'9" and only 18 years old, Knox is an impressive athlete with lots of offensive upside. He has a smooth stroke, but his shot selection is sometimes questionable. However, his bad habits like settling for long two point jumpers should be coached out of him once he reaches the NBA, and his shooting percentages should benefit from improved shot selection. Knox is only an average rebounder, and his theoretical defensive versatility is dependent on him getting stronger and quicker, but Charlotte will be happy to add Knox’s scoring to their roster.
Pick 12, Los Angeles Clippers: Lonnie Walker IV, SG, Miami
The Clippers recently extended guard Lou Williams, an excellent offensive guard who is too undersized to be a good defender. Insert Lonnie Walker IV who, at 6'4" with a 6'10" wingspan, is long, agile, and quick enough to effectively defend both guard positions. Playing Walker alongside Williams would allow the Clippers to assign the more challenging defensive matchup to Walker while allowing Williams to handle the creative offensive load. Walker is a good shooter, although his percentages suffered some off the catch despite showcasing good footwork coming off screens. With improved ball handling, he could be an effective shot creator and scorer, but at the very least he’ll be a capable 3-and-D guard.
Pick 13, Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, Big, Texas A&M
All signs indicate that the Clippers will move on from another former Texas A&M big man, DeAndre Jordan, in the next year or so. Robert Williams may only be 6'9", but he has a 7'5" wingspan, is a phenomenal dunker, and averaged 9.2 rebounds per game despite playing on a Texas A&M team with a surplus of big men, often starting at Power Forward. Williams is agile enough and a good enough athlete to switch onto guards and wings if he needs to, and he’s a phenomenal shot blocker. One area where Williams’s game needs improvement is shooting; He shot only 47.1% from the free throw line and his shooting form is rather inconsistent. Much like DeAndre Jordan, Robert Williams may never improve as a shooter, but his ability to defend on switches may make him more effective than Jordan in the future.
Pick 14, Denver Nuggets: Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
Jamal Murray started for the Nuggets at point guard most of last season, which was passable because starting center Nikola Jokic is a capable playmaker. However, it seems that it may be in the best interest of the Nuggets going forward to move Jamal Murray back to shooting guard by drafting Collin Sexton. Collin Sexton has an infectious intensity and attitude, and he also happens to be pretty good at basketball. So good, in fact, that he nearly brought his team back to win a game despite playing 3 on 5. Sexton has the lateral quickness, tenacity, and length (6'7" wingspan) to be a lockdown defender, which would help the Nuggets with some of their backcourt defense. However, he does need to get stronger to defend bigger players, improve his passing skills to become a better facilitator, and work on slowing down his frequently out of control pace.
