My Predictions for the NBA Season
To preface all of this, the art of predictions is incredibly complicated, and most of my predictions of what is to follow are based largely on gut feelings. Needless to say, most of this will probably be wrong. If you stick around for what’s likely to be a lengthy article, I’ll be covering over/under win predictions for all 30 teams, awards, Eastern and Western Conference champions, and NBA Finals champion.
Eastern Conference Over/Under Predictions
The eastern conference is clearly the less exciting conference, and there are going to definitely be a few VERY bad teams in this conference.
Chicago Bulls: 21.5 Wins
This Bulls team is going to be VERY bad. They traded away their best player in Jimmy Butler to the Timberwolves and ended up with Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, and Lauri Markannen. Kris Dunn looked unimpressive with for Minnesota in his rookie season, putting up only 7.9 ppg and 5.1 apg per 36 minutes and shooting 28.8% on threes. LaVine is the only reason I have to be excited about the Bulls this season, and I really hope coach Fred Hoiberg hands him the keys to the team. LaVine was an exciting player for the Timberwolves, if for nothing more than some impressive dunks. That said, LaVine is coming off of a torn ACL and won’t be ready for the start of the season. I’m about as low on Lauri Markannen as you can get, I think at his best he could be a 7 foot Steve Novak. In college, summer league, and preseason he showed little to no ability to rebound or play defense. While he’s a good shooter, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s either a career role player or out of the league within 5 years. I can’t see the Bulls winning much, and as one of the few bad teams that control their own pick, they’ll likely be tanking for much of this year. I’ll take the under here.
Atlanta Hawks: 25.5 Wins
The Hawks are another very bad eastern conference team. Their best player is Dennis Schroder. That’s not a good thing. He’ll likely be starting alongside Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, Ersan Ilyasova, and Dewayne Dedmon. I don’t see much to be excited about in Atlanta this year, or even in the near future. If they do somehow manage to get to 26 wins, it will be because coach Mike Budenholzer works some magic and turns them into a capable offensive team. I don’t see that happening, so I’ll take the under on Atlanta.
Brooklyn Nets: 28.5 Wins
I’m actually really excited about this Nets team. D’Angelo Russell has shown ability to put up good numbers in his first two seasons with the Lakers, and I think he’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder after being traded. He’s an intangibles risk, that’s for sure, but I could see him putting up 22 or 23 points per game with 5 assists and campaigning for most improved player. Between Russell, Jeremy Lin, and Allen Crabbe, I think this team has the offensive firepower to break 29 wins. The other important factor at play, is that they don’t own their own draft pick this year, so they have no incentive to be bad. I think they’ll beat 28.5 wins, so I’ll take the over.
New York Knicks: 30.5 Wins
I don’t have high hopes for this Knicks team. I actually think there’s a strong chance they’re the worse New York team behind the Nets. Frank Ntilikina doesn’t have a strong enough offensive game at this point, and I’m not sure how well Kristaps Porzingis can play the role of go-to scorer. Tim Hardaway Jr. is being massively overpaid, but at least he’ll offer some floor spacing. I like Willy Hernangomez, and I think he’s got some potential too. I’m going under for the Knicks though, I just don’t think they’ve got what it takes to break 30 wins.
Indiana Pacers: 31.5 Wins
They had to have received better offers for Paul George, right? They’ve got no shot at the playoffs, and the only way they go over 31.5 wins is if both Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner are capable of stepping up to handle the pressure of being top options for a team every night. I’m actually really excited to see what Oladipo can do this year. This is the first time in his career where I think he’s really in a situation where he can thrive. Playing in OKC next to Westbrook just isn’t the right fit for him, and his time in Orlando with Elfrid Payton as his backcourt partner included way too little shooting to space the floor. I think Oladipo can take a step forward this year, and I think Myles Turner is capable of handling the role this team needs from him. I think they manage to get to 32–34 wins this year, so I’ll take the over.
Orlando Magic: 33.5 Wins
The Magic have a weird lineup. Vucevic is one of the best good numbers on a bad team guys of this decade, but he doesn’t have three point range, so I don’t think he can be a building block of a successful team. They only won 29 games last year, and they lost Serge Ibaka from that team. Jonathan Isaac is a very intriguing player, but I don’t think he’s ready to make a big contribution. I can’t see them being 5 wins better than they were last year, so I’m predicting they stay under 33.5 wins.
Detroit Pistons: 38.5 Wins
This has to be the last year of the Andre Drummond experiment right? The biggest problem I have with this team is that in crunch time of a close game, unless they take Drummond out of the game their opponent can just take advantage of his inability to shoot free throws. I’m really high on Avery Bradley, I think he’s a great complimentary player who plays great defense and can hit spot up jumpers. I just don’t think this team has what it takes, but they could still sneak into the playoffs in the east with 37 or 38 wins. I’ll take the under on them though.
Philadelphia 76ers: 42.5 Wins
This 76ers team is really talented and very exciting, but I doubt they can stay healthy. Embiid is a game-changing presence when healthy, and I’m rooting for him to stay healthy, because he’s got so much talent. That said, I think there’s no way he plays in more than 60 games this year. Same goes for Ben Simmons. I’m really worried about how Markelle Fultz has changed his free throw motion over the summer to deal with shoulder soreness; he looks like Shaq at the line. There’s something fishy there and I don’t like it. Health is just too much of a concern for me to expect Philly to break 42.5 wins. They’ll be in a battle with Detroit for the 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, and it’ll all come down to health.
Charlotte Hornets: 42.5 wins
The Batum injury really hurts them a lot, but I’m excited about Kemba Walker and the way he’s played in recent season. I think Malik Monk can be a strong NBA scorer, but he needs to work on his defense. I even think Dwight Howard will surprise us this year, and have a good season that doesn’t end with all of his teammates hating him. I feel bad for the guy, he’s so athletically gifted. They won’t make a deep playoff run with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist starting, but I think Charlotte will definitely be a playoff team, barring catastrophe. I also think they’ll win 43 or more games, so I’ll take the over.
Miami Heat: 43.5 Wins
Erik Spoelstra is a really good coach, and these guys have a great roster. The even more impressive piece to me is that they have the right chips to make a big trade. I’d guess Justise Winslow isn’t on the team by the end of the year, he’s the type of young and promising player who still needs some work that a team who’s looking to rebuild would take in a trade. I like Goran Dragic and Whiteside, but I’m a bit puzzled by how much they spent on Olynyk this summer, hopefully Spoelstra has plans for him. They’ll get to 44 wins, and they could do even better if they make the right trade midseason. Over.
Washington Wizards:47.5 Wins
The thing that boggles me about the Wizards is that they did next to nothing this offseason to get better. They resigned Otto Porter to a massive contract and gave John Wall a huge extension, but they didn’t add any other players to complement the guys they already have. The other teams near the top of the east are getting better and beyond player development, the Wizards seem to have spent the summer running in place. Hopefully the flashes of three point shooting ability John Wall showed last year are legit and he continues to figure out how to play in the half court. With everyone else getting better, I think the Wizards’ record takes a step backwards, and they end up under 47.5 wins.
Milwaukee Bucks: 47.5 Wins
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a future MVP. He’s devastating enough already, when he figures out how to hit threes he might be unstoppable. This Bucks team is so young, and they can only go up from where they were last year. They’re getting Khris Middleton back, who was out with injury most of last year, and they should get Jabari Parker back for the final stretch of the season. If I was an eastern conference team, I wouldn’t want to play the Bucks. I think they break 47.5 Wins, but not by much.
Toronto Raptors: 48.5 Wins
The Raptors are another team that didn’t really improve much, but I doubt they’ll drop 3 wins from last year. DeMar DeRozan has to have spent the summer in the gym shooting threes, so he’ll shoot more than 26.6% from deep like he did last year. This is an easy over for me. They’ll get to 49 or 50 wins.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 53.5 Wins
This roster is weird. Isaiah Thomas is out until at least January; Dwyane Wade is old, but nevertheless he can still play; Derrick Rose thinks he’s the player he used to be, but I doubt that; Kevin Love at the center is going to be an experiment, but they need to do it for floor spacing. I like Jae Crowder, and LeBron will continue to do LeBron things and completely carry this team. I’m worried about their backcourt, with starters that can’t shoot and basically no great defenders. But this is LeBron’s team, and it’s basically impossible to bet against him. He’ll drag them to at least 54 wins if he has to, so I’ll take the over.
Boston Celtics: 56.5 Wins
I’ll preface what I’m about to say by noting that I’m a Celtics fan. I love Brad Stevens, and I think he’ll work magic with this roster and make something happen. They should face the Cavaliers in the conference finals. Stevens will figure out a system that lets Kyrie thrive. That said, 57 wins seems high. Avery Bradley will be missed, and they still lack rebounding. I’m not even sure they can best the Cavaliers for the best record in the East, so I’ll take the under.
Western Conference Over/Under Predictions
Sacramento Kings: 28.5 Wins
I really like De’Aaron Fox. I hope the Kings realize they need to start him over George Hill by December and learn to deal with the growing pains. He’s my dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate. However, these Kings are going to be bad. They’re made up of half old, nearly washed up players, and half guys who aren’t quite ready yet. Hopefully the old guys can mentor the young guys well enough to turn them into something vaguely successful. I think they can do it. I’m taking the over.
Phoenix Suns: 28.5 Wins
The Suns are one of those teams that are going to be fun to watch, even though they’ll be really bad. We might seem more than a few games like Devin Booker’s 73 point game last year where coach Earl Watson concedes defeat and just tries to feed Booker the ball. Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Marqueese Chriss, and Tyson Chandler with Josh Jackson off the bench makes for some fun up-tempo games, but a lot of losses. They’ll be under 28.5 wins.
Los Angeles Lakers: 33.5 Wins
I worry about the media circus around this team. Lonzo is a truly gifted passer, but LaVar is inevitably going to cause a problem at some point, and I hope it doesn’t distract from the on-court situation. Kyle Kuzma has been very impressive in the preseason and summer league, and if he can keep that up he’ll be the steal of this year’s draft. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brandon Ingram should both improve this year, and maybe Julius Randle will start to figure things out more too. Call me a dreamer, but I think the Lakers can get to 34 wins, I’ll take the over.
Dallas Mavericks: 35.5 Wins
The Mavericks are not making the playoffs. Dennis Smith Jr. is a rookie of the year candidate, and he may very well be the most highlight friendly player of the year. They seem to be leaning towards playing Dirk at center and that is scary. He’s a legend but at this point he’s not the rebounder or defender you need at the 5. They’ll be under 35.5 wins, and I’m pretty confident about that.
Memphis Grizzlies: 37.5 Wins
Maybe the Grizzlies will prove me wrong, who knows, but I don’t think they break 37.5 wins. I really like Mike Conley and Marc Gasol, but beyond those two guys they don’t have a particularly great team. They no longer have Tony Allen, which is exciting for the ability to space the floor and not be playing 4-on-5 on offense every possession, but I think the time is up on this Grizzlies team. Under.
New Orleans Pelicans: 39.5 Wins
I’m so frustrated by this team. Anthony Davis is so talented, and so is DeMarcus Cousins. But this experiment doesn’t seem to be working, and I have no reason to believe that changes this year. Rondo and Tony Allen as the backcourt partnership to go along with this frontcourt is almost idiotic. You cannot succeed in the NBA with your best shooters playing power forward and center. I think DeMarcus Cousins is gone by the trade deadline, and that they stay under 39.5 wins.
Utah Jazz: 40.5 Wins
I think Minnesota is going to regret letting Ricky Rubio go. He’s on and off but he has phases when he’s one of the best playmakers in the league, and I think Rodney Hood is going to really benefit from that. Joe Ingles established himself as a legit starter, and they have Rudy Gobert to anchor the defense. I think they both make the playoffs, and win more than 40.5 games.
Portland Trail Blazers: 42.5 Wins
I don’t understand how this Portland team wins 43 games in the western conference. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum in the backcourt provides loads of scoring but they can’t defend. Jusuf Nurkic has looked great and in better shape than ever, but I just don’t think there’s a chance they win this many games, and I think they don’t even make the playoffs. I’ll take the under.
Los Angeles Clippers: 43.5 Wins
Health. That’s the keyword for this Clippers season. Blake Griffin has serious dark horse MVP candidate potential, but he has to stay healthy. Danilo Gallinari is a good basketball player, but he’s never healthy. I really like Patrick Beverley at point guard and Lou Williams coming off the bench. This is going to be a good team if they can stay healthy, and they should be over 43.5 wins.
Denver Nuggets: 45.5 Wins
I’m very conflicted about Denver. This number seems about right, but I have concerns that they have no good point guard (No, Emmanuel Mudiay does not count). That said, Jokic and Millsap is going to be a great playmaking front court, and they’re surrounded with good shooters. They also lack rim protection. They’ll be fun to watch, and I hope both Jamal Murray and Gary Harris continue to develop further. I’m going to go with a tentatively optimistic over.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 48.5 Wins
I don’t buy the hype around this Timberwolves team. They were 31–51 last year! I don’t think Jeff Teauge is really an upgrade over Ricky Rubio, and Jimmy Butler might take some time to figure out how to fit in with the rest of the guys on this team. I’m hoping that Butler is able to convince Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns to work their butts off in training, but even in the most optimistic scenario I don’t think Minnesota can beat 48.5 wins. They’ll make the playoffs, don’t get me wrong, but I’m still taking the under.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 51.5 Wins
This is a really tough one to predict. I hope, for all the guys on this team, that they’re able to figure it out, but I don’t know. I’m concerned about Andre Roberson especially. I don’t think he should be starting for a team that wins 50+ games, he can’t shoot at all. But if the combination of Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, and Paul George figures it out, they’ll be devastating anyway. I’ll take the over.
San Antonio Spurs: 54.5 Wins
Kawhi is out to start the season, and that’s a bad sign. LaMarcus Aldridge has been shooting more threes in preseason, that’s a good sign. Popovich is one of the three greatest coaches ever in my book. He’ll figure this team out. They’ll get to 55 wins somehow, and that can be attributed to Popovich. Over.
Houston Rockets: 55.5 Wins
Chris Paul and James Harden in the same backcourt and on the same team. There’s a good argument about how the Rockets will be able to play 48 minutes with Hall of Fame-level point guard play. There’s also the argument about there only being one ball on the court for these two ball-dominant players. However, I’m not worried about that, I’m confident Harden can play off the ball. Clint Capela should make some major strides this season, and I think he’ll really enjoy the DeAndre Jordan treatment from Chris Paul, catching as many lobs as he can handle. The downfall of this team will be in the locker room. Paul and Harden are both big personalities and I worry about whether or not they’ll be able to coexist. If they pull it off, they’ll be the second best team in the west. However, I’m not optimistic, so I’m taking the under.
Golden State Warriors: 67.5 Wins
This might be the easiest one of all. Unless 2 of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green are injured for more than 2 months this team will win the western conference. If they stay healthy for the whole season they’ll easily break 70 wins. I’m taking the over.
Season Awards
MVP: Kevin Durant
I think Durant will be the best player on the best team in the league. Harden and Westbrook will both have numbers stolen by their new teammates, and Kawhi might miss too many games. LeBron also has a strong case, given that he’ll likely drag the Cavaliers to the number 1 seed in the eastern conference. However, I think Durant wins simply because he’s the best player on one of the best teams the NBA has ever seen.
Rookie of the Year: Dennis Smith Jr.
Lonzo Ball or Ben Simmons could both easily take this award. I’m worried about Simmons’s health and Lonzo’s circus. If Lonzo has a bad start the media will turn on him quickly. Dennis Smith Jr. is going to get the keys to the Mavericks and he’ll be a highlight machine. The Mavericks might not win many games but Smith will be exciting to watch, and will put up good numbers.
Most Improved Player: D’Angelo Russell
I think Russell is going to put up some ungodly numbers on a bad Nets team, and that’ll win him the award.
Coach of the Year: Brad Stevens
Brad Stevens will figure out how to get this Boston Celtics offense clicking and that’ll win him the coach of the year.
6th Man of the Year: Lou Williams
He gets buckets, he’s coming off the bench behind Austin Rivers, and he’s in the media hub of Los Angeles. He fits the bill for 6th Man of the Year, and I think he’s a good pick.
Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green
In this day and age it’s so hard to pick against Draymond because of how central he is to the Warriors defense. I think Durant or Kawhi could make a case for DPOY, but the typical big man picks like Gobert or Whiteside won’t put up the necessary block numbers to beat out Draymond.
Playoff Predictions
Eastern Conference Finals: Cavaliers vs Celtics
The two best teams in the East are pretty clear, and the Cavaliers might have Isaiah Thomas back by this point in the year. Hard to expect the Wizards, Raptors, or Bucks to beat either of these teams. Cavaliers in 6.
Western Conference Finals: Warriors vs Thunder
I think the Thunder will have their superteam mold figured out by the time the playoffs roll around, while the Rockets will struggle with two players notorious for playoff letdowns in Harden and Paul. The Spurs don’t have the firepower to keep up either. The Warriors making the finals might be the easiest thing to predict in all of the NBA. Warriors in 5.
NBA Finals: Warriors vs Cavaliers
The Warriors are unstoppable barring injury, and I don’t think the loss of Kyrie makes the Cavaliers any better equipped to handle the Warriors. Kyrie was the guy they struggled to guard pretty frequently, and I think they’ll do far better against Thomas, Wade, and Rose. Warriors in 5.
