I have little interest in getting involved in a pro-Russian diatribe but this is a problem as there is very little else to talk about here. As is being said in many places, there is little hope for this very limited ceasefire. The fact that Trump is involved makes it even shakier as his sole purpose in life is stroking Putin. From the US perspective Trump is desperate to deflect attention from the Russian shit storm of his own making. This ceasefire was a previous frantic attempt to make pandering to Putin into something of geopolitical and humanitarian consequence. I suspect this was Putin’s idea as Russia is the only one to gain from this and that is even pretty thin. The reality of this ceasefire is that neither Assad nor Iran was involved. It is primarily aligned to Jordan and the Syrian, Israeli border in an effort to keep Iranian backed forces away from the Golan Heights. While on the surface this could be good for many Syrian refugees, who is going to enforce this thing. Trump? No. Putin? Underlying this is the fact that Assad is more reliant on Iran than Russia. And the problem is that Assad may use this to bring his forces back to Damascus to attack the “good” rebel’s there rather than to move harder against ISIS. The result will be more civilian deaths and more refugees not less.
The simple fact is that the Russian support and funding of Trump (however it relates to the online voter manipulation last fall) is so big and messy that it can’t be contained. And now we find that Trumpster junior not only screwed the Russian pooch in public but has sent everyone the pictures. These are the guys that fart in an elevator with only one other passenger and then try to point at them.