COVID-19 Curves & Carrying Capacity
Parallels between health communications and environmental action
There is no doubt that our world is drastically different compared to just a few weeks ago. As news about the coronavirus crisis has evolved daily, I’ve been in awe of how communications — or a lack thereof — shape the behaviour of a planet of people. Originally, it felt like a concerned few were yelling “stay home!” from the rooftops, only to have their voices carried away by the wind. However, when the visual and accompanying message to #flattenthecurve took the media by storm, it began to feel like the movement had traction.
Realizing the pandemic is taking a jackhammer to all the cracks in our healthcare, political, and economic systems, I can’t help but wonder what this crisis will teach us about catalyzing public action in the face of a global threat. After all, it is our perception of reality — not reality itself — that drives behaviour, and nothing shapes one’s perception of reality like a good story. Here’s how our ability to tell the story of limits will shape our collective conduct, and consequently, our future.
The Coronavirus Curve
This powerful graphic shows how, if a country’s citizens do not take measures such as social distancing, the spike in COVID-19 cases will drastically overwhelm their health care system and result in a number of otherwise preventable deaths. Alternatively, if public health protocols are followed, the outbreak peak will be both delayed and reduced to the point where the system should be able to accommodate.
This model has created a shared language around “flattening the curve” that healthcare professionals, politicians, and the public have rallied behind. The COVID curve has permeated our collective consciousness, and made people believe their individual initiatives actually matter in a battle against an enemy they can’t see. Reality didn’t change, but their perception of it did.
In short: this visual shocked us with awareness about the limit of the system we rely on, while empowering us with a simple call to action. It’s given us a mental model that can be applied to all parts of the COVID-19 experience…
Carrying Capacity
Carrying capacity (K) is the average population density/size a habitat can accommodate for a particular species, above which its numbers tend to decrease due to a finite number of resources. This model of K shows that populations cannot grow exponentially, since they are limited by their environment.
Luckily, our global population growth is not exponential — the growth rate has actually been falling since the 60s, largely due to women’s empowerment and access to contraceptives. That said, unlike other species whose resource consumption stays relatively proportional to population, ours is extremely dependent on where an individual lies on the wealth spectrum. In fact, the richest 10% “produce half of the planet’s individual-consumption-based fossil fuel emissions”, while the poorest 50 % contribute only 10%.
This makes our earth’s K not so much dependent on number of people, but instead the consumption (and consequent emissions) per person. Maybe we are better off viewing our carrying capacity instead as a Carbon Limit, above which our population will inevitably decrease due to the destructive effects of a changing climate. This can either lead to our collapse, or a forced adaptation to live within this carrying capacity. Nevertheless, the K graph is a powerful mental model depicting how species will always be constrained to the limitations of their environment.
The Parallel
Both the COVID-19 curve and the carrying capacity graph serve as visualizations of limits, where a population previously perceived none. Humans don’t like thinking in terms of limits. For example, we operate within a system where the success metric is GDP and the goal is endless growth, so the idea of restrictions on this form of progress is unfavourable. However, images like the coronavirus curve highlight our vulnerabilities, as well as the consequences if we surpass our system’s capacity. Luckily, it has also been very effective in catalyzing individual actions by a large number of people towards a shared goal: survival.
I believe this parallel highlights a golden opportunity to borrow best practices from health communications when rallying global citizens to change consumption patterns and stay within our environmental carrying capacity. Our brains are hardwired to receive information visually; so it is no surprise people needed a tangible representation of the impact they could have by following health recommendations, in order to change their behaviour. Like the COVID curve, illustrations about the climate crisis must create a sense of urgency (not panic, which is paralyzing) and be accompanied by actionable measures for each individual to be part of the solution.
I’ve just started reading Doughnut Economics by Kate Raworth, and am already drawn to her new model for sustainable development: the doughnut. Her book speaks to the power of imagery in overturning deeply held beliefs of the masses. As Raworth mentions, change occurs not by fighting the existing reality (aka our traditional economic model aiming for endless GDP growth), but by building new models to make the old ones obsolete. I believe simple images such as the doughnut will help push the adoption of emerging solutions enabling our transition to a low-carbon economy, such as green bonds.
Climate conscious investing is to the environmental crisis, like social distancing is to the coronavirus crisis. Measures like reducing air travel are necessary to move the dial on both these issues. However, some additional actions — which may have been previously left out of one’s option set — can have a quantifiably larger potential for positive impact. For those privileged enough to have savings to invest, greening your portfolio can have this effect. According to David Berliner, the founder of CoPower:
“Your investment portfolio may have more of an impact on your carbon footprint than any other individual action — including having a child.”
In closing, once this pandemic passes, the opportunity will arise to communicate the desperate need to flatten another curve: that of our excessive resource consumption and resulting emissions. It is imperative we live within the limits of our environmental carrying capacity, in order to remain in what Raworth’s doughnut model depicts as “the safe and just space for humanity”. Simple visuals are currently helping us combat a global threat by advancing our perception of reality, and telling a story about how we can shape its course. Let’s not let a good crisis go to waste.
