Russia and China’s Relationship Status: It’s Complicated
There is one country on a collision course with Russia and, contrary to popular belief, it is not the United States.
Just South of Russia’s Eastern border there is a country that needs massive amounts of resources and lebensraum (living space) to continue to grow its economy. Its people number in the billions and already outnumber the Russian population in the immediate region. Its military is rapidly expanding and already shifting the balance of world power.
This country, of course, is China.
Historical Tensions
One of the greatest misdirections during the Cold War was the global portrayal of relations between the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China. The Western public was led to believe that the USSR and the PRC were a united front against the United States and its allies. This was true up until the beginning of the 1960s and the start of the Sino-Soviet split, a fracturing of relations between the USSR and the PRC. This divide led to open conflict between the two, including combat between uniformed service members. The start of armed conflict occurred in 1969 with a Chinese raid on Zhenbao Island which prompted a border war.
By the end of 1969 Soviet and Chinese relations were so hostile that the USSR secretly proposed “a joint attack on Chinese nuclear facilities” with the United States, which the US rejected. This information was kept secret from the general public of the United States, as it was advantageous to American domestic and foreign policy for Americans to continue to believe that the PRC and USSR were a united front against the US.
In addition during most of the Cold War, Russia and China were more afraid that the other would invade than of an invasion by the United States. A study by George Washington University reports that “(i)n 1990, the Soviets had about a quarter of its ground and air forces and a third of its navy dedicated to the border, or 56 divisions containing 700,000 troops when fully mobilized. The Chinese had 1 million soldiers deployed along the 7500-kilometer border.” Based on would this it would be fair to say that at the very least China and Russia viewed conflict between them as more likely than between them and the United Staes.
These hostilities are commonly seen as having ended in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union. But they did not end, they merely dissipated when China gained the upper hand due to the fall of the USSR and received a number of territorial concessions by Russia. The tensions over these concessions continue to today.
Modern Day Issues
China faces the same problems as most developing countries although, due to its population, these problems exist on a much greater scale. China, like many developing nations, lacks the natural resources to support its growth, especially with energy resources like oil. In crude oil specifically China can only fulfill about a third of its demand.
China also lacks the necessary amount of critical minerals necessary to maintain its current economy, let alone continue to grow. As one analyst put it, “China is in the ‘red zone’ for future supplies of nearly all crucial mineral commodities.” China has attempted to rectify this problem by establishing trade relationships in Africa and South-Central America, but it is unclear if these demands will be met.
Russia, on the other hand, is a massive country that is lightly populated but abundant with natural resources, especially “east of the Ural Mountains, traditionally the eastern boundary of Europe, [where the population] is only 25 million” says Michael Austin of the American Enterprise Institute. Siberia in particular is very lightly populated due to the extremely harsh climate, with only 7 million Russians residing there.
However China has a population of over 100 million close by. This inequity in proportional strength creates a serious problem for Russia as “Siberia is rich in energy resources, timber, water and minerals,” which are all things China needs. In addition, Chinese migration and economic investment have already led to “the Russian Far East fast becoming (if it has not already become) economically dependent on China,” according to the Harvard International Review.
This will compound as China gains influence in Central Asia by taking it away from Russia, something Vladimir Putin will certainly be loathe to accept. Russia has long considered most of Central Asia to be its exclusive territory, in part due to its status as former Soviet Territory. President Putin is very fond of the Soviet Union, and is also prone to taking bold and aggressive actions that are often highly illogical.
Part of what makes Russia’s actions hard to predict is the brutality, pragmatism, and efficiency with which the actions are conducted, coupled with the pure egotism for which they are done. This dichotomy is hard to conceptualize because of the split between logical action and emotional reasoning.
Russia’s recent aggression in Europe is due to Vladimir Putin’s emotional desire for Russia to be and be seen as a world superpower again, not any logical sense. If China is to continue to press its “colonization attempts,” which it will as China also wants to grow, on territory that either Putin considers his like Central Asia, or is his, like Siberia, then it seems that conflict is inevitable. Conflict will come because of Vladimir Putin’s ego.
America’s Role
The prospect of worsening relations between Russia and China will be one of the biggest hurdles for the coming Trump Administration. But President Elect Trump has already chosen which side to position the United States on, playing into Russia’s hands. However this is not entirely the President Elect’s fault, as the US has long been complicit in allowing the general public to view Russia and China as allies, rather than countries with competing interests.
The United States does not disrupt this image because it is beneficial to the American government to maintain the illusion of the presence of strong enemies capable of threatening the United States. Thanks to forty years of Cold War, Americans are used to seeing Russia and China as threats to American safety. Continuing this image allows American officials to maintain the need to spend on a large defense budget that includes $125 billion in administrative waste. With the tightening of the federal budget, a cut of $125 billion could go a long way towards funding civilian or other military programs.
Both Russia and China possess militaries that are extremely capable by world standards. Both are considered to be second and third strongest by Global Fire Power and Credit Suisse. China’s own Academy of Social Sciences ranks China as slightly stronger militarily than Russia. Regardless of which metric you use, it is clear that the two are pretty similar.
A war between them would be rather evenly matched. Traditionally, China has relied upon Russia for some advanced weapons systems but recently has started to develop its own domestic arms industry. However, neither would a stand a chance against the United States in an actual war.
The United State’s reach and force projection capabilities alone allow it to out-maneuver either nation and achieve very decisive victories. Vladimir Putin is many things, but he is not stupid. He knows that Russia does not have the capability to compete with the United States on a global scale.
In regional and asymmetrical conflicts like Syria or in Ukraine or another potential conflict in Eastern Europe, Russia is able to bring greater strength proportionally than the US can. But in a “hot” or total war, Russia would be annihilated. The Russian economy is not nearly strong enough to fuel a competition with the US. War is more about money and logistics and no country in the world can match the United States in war industry. This same situation exists with China. It is possible that in a small regional conflict China could best the United States due to their ability to leverage greater proportional power, but if the conflict spread they would be thoroughly beaten.
However, if Russia were able to lure the United States into a conflict with China it would take care of two birds with one stone. The United States would become occupied with a war and destroy Russia’s most dangerous rival with no Russian loss of life or treasure. While the United States would likely win it would also be severely weakened, allowing for a potential Russian rise. The United States must be extremely careful to guard against this possibility and avoid conflict unless absolutely necessary. To do this we must leverage China and Russia against each other, and do in reverse what Vladimir Putin seeks to do to us.
