Senate Preview: Determining the Majority
This year’s presidential race has been, if nothing else, must-watch T.V. The debates this year have been the most watched ever, with viewership for the first debate peaking at well over 80 million people (this figure doesn’t include streaming, which is how many people, myself included, tuned in). This dwarfs anything else on T.V. For comparison, the highest rated NFL game this season had a relatively puny 28 million viewers. It’s a media behemoth; if CNN and NBC had their say, this election would run on for the next decade.
But T.V. political coverage is lacking because of its singular focus on the executive branch. This dearth of information has consequences; over 4 million fewer people voted in congressional races than for president in 2012. What’s more, in the 2014 midterm election, congressional voting plummeted by 45,573,938 votes.
I’m using congressional votes as a proxy for interest in legislative branch politics because the variability of senatorial election years makes it hard to compare numbers, but what is clear is that a presidential election is the big draw. It’s unfortunate that so much of the focus is on the top of the ballot though, because November 8th is going to be interesting for a lot of other reasons.
Here, I’m focusing on senate elections. Congressional elections are also extremely important, but the rampant gerrymandering of districts means that close races are relatively rare. In fact, of the 435 seats in the house, only ten are considered true tossups. While it looks like Democrats will benefit from an election year bump, most polls don’t predict any sweeping changes in the house.
The senate is currently made up of 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats and two independents (who both caucus with the Dems). However, political analysts believe that Democrats will regain the senate, for a variety of reasons. I’ll highlight two.
First, while there are 34 seats up for grabs, only 10 currently belong to Democrats, and most of these are considered safe. On the other hand, Republicans have a number of tough fights ahead of them. Many are contested, and a handful are already considered lost.
Second, the candidacy of Donald Trump could impact how constituents perceive their representatives. A conservative who opposes Trump, for example, could be less likely to vote for a senator who supports him, and vice versa. The flip-flopping of Paul Ryan and John McCain, among others, about whether they support Trump puts them in a compromised position.
Below, I’m including summaries of some of the more notable senate races that will be decided this coming Tuesday. It’s not a complete list, but it will serve to highlight some of the more exciting and impactful contests. I’m also including each candidate’s chances of winning according to both Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight. The rival sites use different methodologies for their (sometimes conflicting) predictions, so comparing the two gives a fuller idea of projections for each race.
Illinois: Tammy Duckworth (D) v. Mark Kirk (R)
Current congresswoman Tammy Duckworth has already all but won this race in deep-blue Illinois. Mark Kirk, the incumbent, has made a reputation as one of the few true moderates left in the senate, but a tendency to commit gaffes, including referring to President Obama as the “drug dealer in chief” and a racially charged comment about Duckworth’s heritage have hurt him in an already tough election. It doesn’t help him that Duckworth, a veteran who lost her legs in the Iraq War, is a party darling. She first gained prominence for unseating Joe Walsh (R) and has become a public supporter of, amongst other things, our veterans and gun control. Kirk had better start looking for a new job, because it looks like Duckworth is going to be in his seat come January.
Five Thirty Eight: Duckworth 96.7%, Kirk 3.3%
Real Clear Politics: Duckworth +13.3
Missouri: Jason Kander (D) v. Roy Blunt (R)
Incumbent Roy Blunt finds himself almost even with Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander in a state that normally leans Republican. Another Democrat who served in the military, Kander has portrayed himself as a political outsider in contrast to Blunt, who has spent almost as many years in elected office as Kander has living. Kander has closed the gap in part with an ad in which he outlines his stance on gun control while assembling a rifle blindfolded, which went viral. In response, Blunt has amped up his conservative rhetoric and endorsed Donald Trump. The once-mild Blunt has spent the fall reinventing himself and moving away from his moderate image. Whether this shift will pay off remains to be seen.
Five Thirty Eight: Blunt 56.1%, Kander 43.9%
Real Clear Politics: Blunt +1.5
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) v. Kelly Ayotte (R)
In a motif for Republicans this year, incumbent Kelly Ayotte defends her place in the senate from Maggie Hassan, who is currently the Governor of New Hampshire. Ayotte has been in the news recently regarding her support (or lack thereof) for Donald Trump. Taking an opposite strategy from Roy Blunt, she has walked back her support of Trump and has actually attacked Trump’s sexist remarks and attitudes in the press. Hassan, meanwhile, has stated that her two most important issues in congress would be reproductive rights and climate change. It’s certainly exciting to see a race between two women in which women’s rights play such a major roll; nonetheless, this has also been an exceedingly ugly race, and both women have seen their favorability ratings drop in the face of intense negative campaigning. The candidates can only play the waiting game to see how their state votes.
Five Thirty Eight: Hassan 51.8%, Ayotte 48.2%
Real Clear Politics: Ayotte +2.4
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (D) v. Ron Johnson (R)
In a rematch of 2010’s Wisconsin senate election, Russ Feingold is attempting to win back the seat that he held from 1993 to 2011. Ron Johnson took the seat by a little over 100,000 votes in 2010, but he was considered a lost cause until a recent surge made the race extremely competitive. Feingold, who considers limiting money in politics one of his signature issues, still has more name recognition in Wisconsin than his competitor. Still, Johnson has benefited from the support of the Republican establishment, including fellow Wisconsin politician Paul Ryan. Feingold, meanwhile, has found support from out-of-state, including an endorsement from Bernie Sanders. As Wisconsin looks increasingly like a battleground, money has been flowing into the state, but most polls seem to show that it’s too little, too late for Johnson.
Five Thirty Eight: Feingold 86.8%, Johnson 13.2%
Real Clear Politics: Feingold +2.7
Pennsylvania: Katie McGinty (D) v. Pat Toomey (R)
Another senator who came in during the Tea Party wave of 2010, Pat Toomey finds his seat unstable in what some conservatives see as the year’s most important race. Katie McGinty, who unsuccessfully campaigned for Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2014 (she finished 4th of 4 in the primaries), has spent most of her adult life as an advocate for the environment, leading the White House Council on Environmental Quality during President Clinton’s tenure and later serving as Pennsylvania’s environmental chief. Senator Toomey, in response, has stressed his bipartisan efforts and moderate voting record in purple Pennsylvania. He’s rejected Donald Trump and stresses that opposition to coal for environmental reasons could cost Pennsylvanians their jobs. In fact, he’s even released an ad that features President Obama praising his “courage.” Keep an eye on this unpredictable race, which will certainly go down to the wire.
Five Thirty Eight: Mcginty 66.5%, Toomey 33.5%
Real Clear Politics: McGinty +2.0
Indiana: Evan Bayh (D) v. Todd Young (R)
Incumbent senator Dan Coats (R) will be retiring for the second time after 2016, which means that his senate seat is now wide open. Evan Bayh, two-time governor of Indiana and Coats’ predecessor, was considered the early favorite based in part on his name recognition, but Todd Young has exploited perceptions of Bayh as a Washington insider. Young, who is currently a congressperson, has hammered Bayh for working for a lobbying firm and spending little time within the state of Indiana. This has seriously hamstrung Bayh’s campaign. Now polling has pulled within the margin of error, with some polls giving Young the advantage on Super Tuesday. The populism that has been such a major factor in American politics this year serves to benefit Young, especially in red Indiana.
Five Thirty Eight: 60.8% Young, 39.2% Bayh
Real Clear Politics: Young +0.7
