Should the U.S. and Canada Merge?

A merger between the United States and Canada might not be as crazy as it sounds. In fact, due to their unparalleled cultural, political, and social compatibility, the United States and Canada are perhaps the countries best suited to eliminate their borders and unite under one flag.

With a shared language (with the exception of the French speaking Quebecois), a nearly identical culture, a shared colonial history, and identical Western values, the United States and Canada have far more in common than some parts of the United States has with itself. In 2012, nearly 3 percent of Canadian born citizens (801,000) resided in the United States. An additional 30,000–40,000 work in the U.S. under the NAFTA professional visa, which allows people from Canada and Mexico to work in the U.S. without the type of visa required in other countries. In fact, the “Canadian Brain Drain” is a well-documented phenomenon in which young Canadian professionals leave Canada to seek work in the U.S., most commonly in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York. A small study out of Waterloo University in Canada discovered that 40 percent of technology students left Canada to seek work in the United States. With so much intermingling, a unification of the two countries would hardly be revolutionary.

Although cultural stereotypes about Canadians and Americans alike often highlight our differences, the two cultures are far more similar than most give them credit for. According to the researcher Ed Grabb — a professor at the University of British Columbia — “For most key measures, including attitudes about health care, religion, government, and individuality, [Americans and Canadians] are surprisingly similar.” In terms of pop culture, Canadians and Americans already compete in the same sports leagues (most notably the NBA and the NHL) and listen to the same music. The Billboard Top 100 Songs for the week of April 14th is 68 percent the same for Canadians and Americans.

In terms of human development and quality of life, the United States and Canada are nearly indistinguishable. In 2016, the United Nations Development Program gave the U.S. and Canada identical scores for levels of human development. The U.S. has a slightly lower life expectancy (79.2 years to Canada’s 82.2), a slightly higher level of gender development, and a slightly higher per capita income ($53,245 to $42,582). Interestingly enough, Canada and the United States spend comparable amounts on welfare and healthcare as a percentage of government expenditures. In 2015, the U.S. and Canada dedicated 19 and 17.2 percent of their respective budgets to social programs.

So, with all of these similarities, what would a union between the U.S and Canada look like?

While a merger between the United States and Canada could take multiple forms, the easiest scenario to conceptualize is one in which Canada joins the United States as the 51st state. Although unequivocally the largest in terms of size, a Canadian state would only be the second largest in terms of population, behind California, and the third largest in terms of GDP, behind California and Texas. Thus, a 51st Canadian state would be a considerable addition, but would not supersede any existing states in power or wealth, therefore maintaining the integrity of the current state balance.

Geographically, the U.S. and Canada share the world’s largest border, spanning nearly 4,000 miles from Washington to Maine. If the United States and Canada (the second and fourth largest countries in the world by land mass) were to merge, the new country would have a geographical area of 7.67 million square miles, more than twice the size of China, 3.73 million square miles larger than Europe, and 1.07 million square miles larger than Russia.

This behemoth of a nation would have a population of 363 million with a GDP larger than $20 trillion USD. It would have 132 of the world’s 500 most profitable companies, and would dominate the world in terms of oil production (20,507 barrels a day, more than four times that produced by China). Militarily, the unparalleled might of the U.S. would only increase. Combined, the U.S. and Canada spend $569.7 billion on defense. With plans to increase military spending in Canada by 70 percent over the next ten years, defense spending would exceed $578 billion.

One of the primary difficulties with such a merger would be the need to reconcile the United States’ presidential governmental system with Canada’s parliamentary system. Furthermore, although the United States and Canada have more in common than not, the Canadian political spectrum leans further left than the United States’. A study conducted by the Social Progress Imperative listed Canada as the 7th most socially progressive country in the world, while the U.S. was 16th. Although this is not inherently problematic, it would likely be the biggest obstacle to an eventual merger. Left-wing politicians in Canada would be concerned about the dilution of their political power, and right-wing politicians in the U.S. would be concerned about the sudden addition of 36 million left-leaning voters. And, of course, a loss of Canadian sovereignty would likely sit poorly with millions of proud and nationalistic Canadians. These are no small obstacles to overcome, but is it worth it?

The specter of a malevolent China dominating world politics and determining international outcomes might just be motivation enough. In fact, a union between the U.S. and Canada could be the best way to ensure the continued strength of the West and the rules based international system. With the second largest GDP on the planet and a population of 1.4 billion (more than a billion more people than in the United States), China will, by 2032, overtake the United States as the most economically powerful country on earth. With economic strength comes military and geopolitical strength, and China’s increasing investments in Africa and Latin America suggest that it is already planning to become a predominant and revisionist force on the international stage. As an illiberal, nondemocratic, and anti-market regime, China shows little promise of being an ally of the West in the future. As such, a merger between the United States and Canada could fortify the West and the values it stands for.

In the face of an unprecedented challenge, and considering our unique similarities, the 4,000 mile border separating the U.S. and Canada might soon become too arbitrary to maintain.