The Myth of Rubber-Stamping Republicans
After Republicans unanimously picked Paul Ryan to continue as Speaker of the House, the Republican Party is starting to look impressively unified. As of this latest election, Republicans now control Congress, most governorships, most state house legislatures, most likely the Supreme Court, and the presidency.
The Republican with the most influence and power, obviously, will be Donald Trump. Trump’s victory was monumental, but would have been less consequential had Democrats won Congress. Very quickly, fear mounted on the left that since Trump had the GOP majority in Congress, he would be able to pass his entire agenda without any considerable resistance. Simply put, that is not the case.
Trump is not a typical Republican. He won the presidency by bashing both the Republicans and the Democrats and making many enemies along the way. Popular Republicans such as John McCain, John Kasich and George W. Bush did not even vote for Trump.
The fact of the matter is that a lot of what Trump says is unrealistic by GOP standards. Trump wants to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure, but Republican senators have stated that a spending plan like that would not pass as a stand alone bill, and will only pass if it hitches a ride on tax reform so that it can be paid for. Senator Lindsey Graham has stated that of all of Trump’s proposals, his infrastructure plan is the most likely to pass. Given the Senate’s caveat on Trump’s infrastructure budget, and further considering Lindsey Graham’s own statement, it appears that even Trump’s most popular policy proposal is still under strict scrutiny. If this is in fact the case, what is the likelihood of his more extreme policies making it through the legislature?
Throughout Trump’s campaign, he drew significant criticism from the GOP about his comments on NATO. Trump repeatedly expressed his desire for normalized relations between Russia and the U.S., and even went as far as to suggest that the U.S. would not defend its allies from Russian aggression unless it was guaranteed that we would be properly reimbursed for providing protection. These comments were harshly received by the GOP Congress, and one GOP lawmaker told Politico that the comments were “ill-advised and dangerous.” Mitch McConnell echoed that sentiment, saying, “NATO is the most important military alliance in world history. I want to reassure our NATO allies that if any of them get attacked, we’ll be there to defend them.” Senator Rand Paul has stated that he will oppose Rudy Giuliani or John Bolton if Trump nominates them for Secretary of State, which is likely.
Trump and the Republicans are obviously very capable of finding common ground, but even when they agree, the relationship remains complicated. Across the board, it is a priority of the GOP and of Trump to repeal Obamacare, but the timing of this has been a point of contention. While many Republicans would like to see the act repealed and replaced within a couple of weeks of Trump assuming office, others want to evaluate options slowly and avoid rushing the process, asserting that they should at least take a few months. Speaker Ryan thinks it would make sense to make changes to Medicare at the same time as repealing Obamacare, but Trump promised to protect entitlements on the campaign trail.
Republicans are unified in backing Trump on border security, but they shy away from Trump’s glamorous wall (that the Mexican government would pay for, of course).
The GOP may appear united and hopeful, but the next years will still be a tremendous struggle in finding total agreement. In 1977, Democrat Jimmy Carter took office and had a democratically controlled Congress to work with. Ideally, this should have meant fantastic cooperation, but since Carter had shallow public support, Congress tried to assert dominance over the president by shutting down his consumer-protection bill and labor reform package. Carter countered by vetoing Congress’ public works package. After this, it became clear that despite being of the same party, the executive and legislative branch were at odds with each other. The contempt between Carter and Congress continued all the way until the election of 1980, where Carter lost to Ronald Reagan by 440 electoral votes.
Despite winning the election, Trump currently has an unfavorable rating of 56 percent according to RealClearPolitics. If Trump still tries to force his agenda through Congress, he will make enemies quickly, and, much like Jimmy Carter in 1980, will be destined for collapse in 2020.
Trump was elected president, but he was not made a king. The idea that this Congress will rubber stamp anything he proposes is unfounded, and it is truly disheartening that many Americans have such little faith in our democratic institutions as to believe that Congress will serve as Trump’s henchman. If Democrats in the Senate vote together against Trump, it will only take a few GOP defectors to stop him. Unless Trump establishes a precedent of compromising with Congress early on, he will be in for a frustrating four years.
