Venezuela’s Exodus
Tensions in Venezuela are back on the rise as anti-government protesters take to the streets and acts of violence break out. But how did this political unrest, which has spanned for two decades, begin? Is there anything we as a global community can do about it?
Hugo Chávez, the former charismatic leader who consolidated his power in 1999, expanded the market for oil in Venezuela and nationalized it. As prices for oil rose, Chávez moved his resources towards exploiting the black gold that the nation sits on. However, as oil prices on the world market started to drop, so did the nation’s economy. Hyperinflation plagued Venezuela as the prices for food and medicine began to skyrocket. Now, the average citizen in Venezuela is unable to access medicine or sufficient quantities of food. Since 1999, poverty has risen from 42% to 84%. It’s a nation where the basic human rights for every citizen are not met.
The new president (or dictator — they’re interchangeable in this case), Nicolás Maduro, has been exploiting this crisis for his own benefit. For example, the military buys food off the world market for their exchange rate of 10 Bolivares to $1. The military then proceeds to sell that food to the Venezuelan population for an inflated price. To make matter worse, inflation for the Bolivare is expected to increase by another 1,660% percent this year alone, according to Bloomberg. This serious hyperinflation is causing the nation to suffer as food and medicine become virtually impossible to obtain.
The rampant poverty resulting from this hyperinflation is causing a serious brain drain. Those with an education or those who are specialized have been fleeing in large numbers. Since this past February alone, 200,000 Venezuelans have applied for residence in neighboring countries. The number of people that have escaped to Argentina has more than tripled since the start of the food shortage crisis almost two decades ago.
The wealthy Venezuelans who have decided to stay have been investing their money elsewhere. The conditions of the Venezuelan market are too volatile, and anyone with affluence is smart enough to invest abroad.
A lot of the data collected does not show the real numbers of how grave this exodus is. One reason is the fact that many of those leaving Venezuela are doing illegally. Additionally, the nation of Venezuela is not conducting any of their own research on their emigration numbers, so all the data is collected by neighboring nations in South America.
Some of these South American countries are no longer able to accommodate the number of people coming in and have had to implement measures to restrict the entrance of Venezuelans. For example, Panama is only admitting those who can show official visas. This has effectively curbed Venezuelan immigration since visas are so difficult to obtain there. Ironically, Venezuela has historically had a lot of immigration due to its rich resources. Now, however, the country is experiencing a mass emigration.
The exodus of the educated class and the specialized workers have had grave consequences for the nation. The social revolution needed to push Venezuela towards a stable path becomes more and more unlikely with the exit of this class.
To alleviate the poverty and stall the flow of people out of Venezuela, more than Maduro’s removal will be necessary. The country will need to settle international debts, attract foreign investment, and arranging a floating currency. The stabilization of the market using these methods will allow dollars to flow back into Venezuela and minimize the population struck by poverty, like it did for Argentina in 2002. All of this is much easier said than done.
But to achieve this, the Venezuelan dictatorship run by Maduro and the Opposition need to engage in negotiations. Neighboring countries in South America could act as mediators of the nation’s crisis, helping the two parties overcome the skepticism that exists between them. Dates for internationally monitored national elections could be set. These demands could be met with stronger consequences than those from the United States sanctions, forcing Maduro’s loyalists to comply. Banks could put loans on hold until the democracy in Venezuela is back on track. Political prisoners could be released, legislatures power could be restored, and civilian militias could be disarmed as they repress protesters.
These negotiations are going to be difficult to accomplish. Maduro controls the media, judiciary, state oil company, military, and electoral council. His top-heavy government is supported by China and Russia. Additionally, the begun to tear from the inside due to internal rivalries. But now, there are moderate voices beginning to call out again and gluing back the fractured opposition.
The waiting option is now completely exhausted for Maduro. The human rights violations have become too grave, and his administration will no longer be able to ignore its international debt obligations. These negotiations are key to the future of the country, and any other alternatives will bring about a doomsday. With international cooperation from the global community, we can begin to help the Venezuelan people.
