Whatever Your View, Take Le Pen Seriously
In France, the first round of what could be the nation’s most pivotal and polarizing election is just three weeks away. Many are already comparing one of the unlikely front runners, Marine Le Pen, to President Trump for her populist vigor and nationalist platform. Upon further examination, Le Pen shares similarities with both Clinton and Trump. Like Clinton, she has a background in law and politics. She supports same sex marriage and unconditional abortion, and opposes the death penalty. And she is running for a position never before held by a woman. However, Le Pen’s more extreme viewpoints and style of campaigning align her more with Trump than Clinton.
Like Trump, Le Pen is decidedly against globalism and immigration. She taps into fears of national security (France has been in a state of emergency since November of 2015, and will continue to be during the election), and a nostalgia for a more prosperous past. Beyond that, Le Pen has expressed much enthusiasm regarding the election of Donald Trump. In fact, she has cited the success of Donald Trump and Brexit as reasons that she will win the upcoming election. So, can she win like Trump?
Yes and no. France and the United States are different countries with different voting systems––very different voting systems. France has no electoral college, so candidates must win the popular vote to win the presidency. If Le Pen is hoping to follow Trump’s exact strategy, this might not bode well for her, as Trump infamously lost the popular vote. However, this is not to say that Le Pen can’t pull off a shocking presidential win. A candidate as Euroskeptic as Le Pen might be unprecedented, but her position is on the rise; approval of Europe in France decreased by almost half in the last 12 years, sinking even below recently divorced Britain. Opposition to the European Union is deeply rooted in France, and the recent refugee and currency crises haven’t created the new populist and nationalist sentiments so much as catalyzed them.
Moreover, Le Pen has something that Trump and Brexit did not: millennial support. While altered electoral maps show Trump winning a meager 23 electoral votes if only millennials had voted, Le Pen’s National Front enjoys more millennial support than any other party. The Front’s liberal social positions and promises of change are very alluring to France’s dissatisfied and disillusioned millennial voters, 25% of whom are unemployed. And while Trump is seen as providing a door to the GOP for white nationalists and neo-Nazis, Le Pen famously cleansed the National Front of anti-Semitic and neo-Nazi sentiment by purging various members, including her own father, from the party. This gives her credit as a force against, rather than for, bigotry. Finally, Le Pen is young. At 48, Le Pen is younger than all but one of her competitors, and her relative youth gives her an edge with younger voters.
Given these similarities, and that Le Pen seems to ride the populist wave that has brought about Donald Trump and Brexit, one would think that the same demographics that voted Trump and voted Leave would be fueling Le Pen. But they would be wrong.
In many ways, Le Pen’s chances are better than Trump’s. She has political experience, and as of yet, no hot mic level gaffes. Her views are diverse and versatile enough that she could win with more conservative voters over Hamon and more liberal voters over Fillon. And her anti-establishment fervor could net her a handsome portion of the nearly 90% of France that believes the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Whatever your view on her may be, Le Pen is a serious contender, and her opponents write her off at their own peril.
