What’s next for the Liberal Democrats?
After a disappointing campaign, it is time to look at the next steps for a party that has failed to capitalise on its earlier gains.
For the Liberal Democrats, it is difficult to see where to go from here. The Pro-European Party is now resigned to the fact that Brexit is happening, and happening soon. None of their defectors were successful in winning their new seats; they now have one less MP than they did in what appeared to be the disaster of 2017. To top it off, their leader was unseated by the narrowest of margins in East Dunbartonshire — to the SNP’s Amy Callaghan — much to the joy of Nicola Sturgeon. On the surface, it looks dire.
Though after this election — despite the losses — there are reasons to be optimistic for Britain’s third party.
In the immediate aftermath of losing their leader, they have a safe pair of hands in Sir Ed Davey. Seen as a competent and respected parliamentarian, Jo Swinson’s challenger in the leadership contest will now take the reigns until a new leader is selected. He is currently the odds-on favourite to take on the role permanently with most bookmakers, and they could do far worse. Despite being a minister in the coalition, Sir Ed received plaudits for his work as Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change — a role that was abolished once the Conservatives gained a working majority in 2015. Despite losing their leader, there is no doubt that the party will soon find someone that will have the unanimous support of both the social democrat and liberal wings of the party.
There are also some positives to take from the election itself. First and foremost, despite the reduction in seats overall, there were far more people that were willing to support them than last time around. Their vote share was up around 50% — with 1.3 million more people voting Liberal Democrat than there were in 2017. They gained more votes than any other party in a huge 266 seats. That is over 100 more than the next best party in the Conservatives, who gained just 1% of the vote in comparison to 2017 — despite their near landslide in the recent election.
Though this didn’t convert into more seats for the Liberal Democrats, it did convert into more second places — particularly in the south. This was also the case in seats where the party have never challenged — even in their heydays of the mid-2000s. In fact, the amount of seats where the Lib Dems are now the default challengers has doubled since 2017; they have gone from around 50 second-places to just over 100 in just two years. Whilst there are no prizes for second place under FPTP, it does make the Liberal Democrats a genuine, credible, option for many in these seats in a way they weren’t before. The reality is no amount of leafletting or bar charts can replicate being the actual challenger in a seat. Tactical voting is likely to remain a part of the political landscape for the foreseeable future. Because of this, gains are much more likely if the anti-Tory vote coalesces around them in seats like Finchley and Hitchin.
Historic gains in some of the seats mentioned below make for some impressive reading right across the country. Examples like Esher and Walton, where the party has surged from 17% to 45% in a single election — despite not quite winning the seat. Close calls were a theme for the Lib Dems in the last election; there were 6 seats in which there were less than 1000 votes between them and the winners. Going further down the 2024 target list, there are another 9 seats where they require less than a 5% swing to come out as the victors. Because of this improved standing in a lot of their target areas, they will have a much easier time in the next election — though it may be little comfort for those who so narrowly missed out this time.
Of course, getting a foothold in seats in preparation for the next election is only part of the story. The Liberal Democrats need a new direction now that Brexit is finally happening. While they are quick to point out their economic competence in the previous manifesto, in order to stand out in a two-party system, they need to capitalise on the opportunities that may lie ahead.
Their first job, however, must be to maintain at least some of the Pro European support that has led to their increased vote share. The difficulty lies in doing so without alienating those in the South West — an area in which they must win people back in order to stand a real chance of gaining a meaningful number of seats. There is a fine line between sounding like passionate, principled, remainers — and a broken record. This election may be at a time when the rest of the country may have moved on, and the party must be able to be pragmatic.
The main benefit for the Lib Dems is simply due to being in opposition — Boris Johnson has problems that are inevitably going to crop up down the road. Growth is at its slowest in a decade, NHS waiting times are at an all-time high, and class sizes are rising. His new coalition of seats combines the leafy suburbs of Surrey Heath with the former mining communities of Blyth Valley and Leigh; the only thing that they have in common is the party that represents them. Decisions made to please one grouping of seats may cause a backlash in the other.
With all of the will in the world, the Prime Minister will struggle to get a comprehensive trade deal with the EU before the end of next year without softening his Brexit stance. If he softens his stance, Nigel Farage and his yet-to-exist new party will be on his flank — and could allow the Lib Dems to come through the middle. If he sticks to the ERG line, he could risk heavily damaging the economy — and in doing so will lose the trust of those in the north for another generation. If the Labour Party choose a new leader in the mould of Jeremy Corbyn, then the Lib Dems will have free reign of the centre-ground to sound like the viable alternative to both.
This was, of course, already the case in this election. However, if they begin to act now, there may be a real opportunity for the Lib Dems to reassert themselves in 2024. The goal will be large enough to the kingmakers — with the red line of electoral reform. Without electoral reform, the Lib Dems will be forever consigned to a third-party status.
Even with the two-party ‘squeeze’ under the First-Past-the-Post electoral system, the Liberal Democrats would have over 60 more MPs under proportional representation. That would be the case without having to gain a single vote. The reality is, of course, that far more people would be willing to vote for the Lib Dems and Greens under a proportional system — which is why the two leading parties tend to rally against it. In this election, however; the Labour Party would have lost out only slightly under PR — whereas the Tories would have lost 80 seats, their majority, and their right to govern. For the Labour Party, loaned votes are perhaps the only way to remove a Tory majority under the current electoral system. To get them, electoral reform will be a red line for any official electoral pact with the smaller parties.
This is the ultimate goal going forward for the Liberal Democrats — to work with other progressive parties and demand electoral reform as part of any coalition agreement. For the Lib Dems, standing down in marginal seats for a Labour Party with electoral reform in their manifesto would be a price they should be happy to pay. However, if Labour is unwilling to co-operate, then they must maximise their seats with the Greens and Plaid once more. They must give Labour the choice between five more years in the wilderness, or proportional representation.
