Who’s going to win the Stanley Cup Final
Tonight is the first game of the Stanley Cup final so what better way to commemorate such a glorious event than for me to give you my scorching hot take on who is going to win it all.
A quick recap
If you’ve been following the playoffs so far, you’d know that this year’s final will be a battle between the Nashville Predators and the Pittsburgh Penguins.
For those who checked out as soon as Montreal was eliminated, yes, your eyes have not deceived you. P.K Subban and the Nashville Predators, the 16th best team to make the playoffs, have somehow beaten the odds and have made it to the final.
Their trajectory in the playoffs showed that getting hot at the right time is all that matters during a season. Plagued by injuries during the regular season, the Predators barely squeaked into the playoffs and were not given much of a chance against the Chicago Blackhawks. However, thanks to stellar goaltending from Pekka Rinne, timely offense from their top three lines, and defensive play that could not be solved, they swept the Blackhawks in four games.
In the next round, they knocked out the St-Louis Blues in six. While Rinne came back down to earth and played like a normal goalie, the defensive core of Roman Josi, Subban, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm were the ones driving the offense and proved to be too much for the Blues to handle. They then played the Anaheim Ducks in their toughest test of the playoffs. While the Preds won in six, the series played out as if it had gone seven. But once again, the Predators defense and secondary scoring stepped up to help them get to the team’s first Stanley Cup final in franchise history.
The Penguins on the other hand, were a much different story. Coming into the playoffs as one of the top teams in the NHL, you’d think they’d have an easier time getting to the final, but they really didn’t.
The first round went by pretty easily for the Pens. They ravaged the Columbus Blue Jackets in five games and moved on to the second round against Washington. Despite having a 3–1 series lead, the team’s injuries caught up to them and the Capitals were able to push the series to seven.
The Penguins came into the playoffs without their top defenseman in Kris Letang and throughout the playoffs, their defense has been a problem, which showed itself in the last two rounds. Furthermore, goaltender Marc-André Fleury had to start the playoffs as Matt Murray got injured in the warm up of the first game against Columbus.
These issues all played themselves out against the Ottawa Senators in the Eastern Conference Final. The Sens stormed out to a 2–1 series lead, with Fleury being replaced in game three by Murray, who would go on to close out the series. The Penguins came back and eventually the series went seven games where the Penguins won in a thrilling double overtime game to go their second Stanley Cup Final in as many years.
Having given you this nice little recap, you’re probably screaming in your head asking yourself, “okay but who’s going to win?”
For me to really give a solid breakdown, there are three categories that I have to assess each team by: offense, defense and goaltending.
Offense
On offense, there is a clear winner here and that’s the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Coming into the cup final, the Penguins have a goals per game average of 3.05 while the Predators have a 2.94 goals per game average. This is mainly due to the fact that some of Nashville’s most talented forwards are injured.
Ryan Johansen and rookie Kevin Fiala are both out for the remainder of the playoffs with devastating injuries. This didn’t seem to hurt them in previous rounds as their secondary scorers were able to pick up the slack. But only time will tell whether or not that will carry through into the finals.
When you look at the Pens, there really is no beating that forward squad.
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel all on the same powerplay. Can you imagine? Well you don’t have to because it’s a scary reality that the Preds will have to face for potentially seven games.
Defense
Just like offense, there is a clear winner when it comes to defense and that’s the Nashville Predators.
What more can be said about this defense? The Predators d-men are changing the way the position and the game as a whole is played. The reason why the offense has remained potent is because Subban, Josi, Ekholm and Ellis are able to drive the offense on every shift. They get the puck out of the zone quickly and each have a rocket of a shot that can find the back of the net before the goalie even has time to blink.
While they are dominant offensively, they also know how to shutdown opposing first lines. Subban and Ekholm did a masterful job shutting down Getzlaf and Perry in the Western Conference Final, and were a huge reason why the team eventually won the series.
As for the Pens, without Letang, this defensive group is underwhelming. When Brian Dumoulin and Ron Hainsey are your top pairing, you know there is a problem. The Predators offense might not be that strong, but they won’t have to be against this depleted defense.
Goaltending
Here is where things get interesting. The finals will be a battle between Pekka Rinne and Matt Murray. Coming into the final, Rinne has a GAA of 1.70 and a save percentage of .941. Whereas Murray is coming in with a GAA of 1.35 and a save percentage of .946.
At first glance it seems as though Murray has the better numbers, and he does. However, Murray has only played four games, Rinne has played 16. Based on sample size alone, the numbers aren’t enough to decide who has the edge.
For me, Murray played the Senators in the ECF and the Senators are not a high-flying offensive team. He had to make good saves, but he was never really tested during the four games he played. Meanwhile, Rinne has been peppered with shots in all three series and should be much more prepared for the challenge that awaits in the final.
On the other side of that coin however, is that Murray has won a Stanley Cup before. If he wins this time around, he’ll have two Stanley Cups in his first two seasons.
Overall, Rinne will be the most motivated of the two netminders. Having played more games, he has more momentum carrying him into this season which makes all the difference in the playoffs. Playing with the best defense in the league will also help him in the final and I’m going to have to give the edge to Rinne.
Final Thoughts
Having gone through the three categories, the Preds won two out of three and that’s why I have to give them the edge in the cup final. Having played 16 games compared to 19 by the Penguins, the Preds will be less tired in the final which goes a long way in a six to seven game series.
If the Predators take one of the first two games in Pittsburgh, they have a great chance to win as they will be going back home where they have yet to lose in regulation during the playoffs. The Penguins will be a tough test, but I think the Predators will take this one in six or seven.
I guess we’ll just have to watch and see but no matter what happens, it will be a great series.
Cole’s Corner is a sports column written by Alexander Cole published every Monday by The Pitchwriter. Follow us to receive our stories every day in your inbox.
