Time to Shave the Beard — Are James Harden’s Days in Houston Numbered?
James Harden will go down as one of the greatest scorers in NBA history, maybe even the best. But with the departure of both Coach Mike D’Antoni and General Manager Daryl Morey, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the Rockets begin to rebuild without the help from one of the franchise’s all time bests.
For years, the Rockets under GM Daryl Morey have gone all in into trying to win a championship. From trading for James Harden in 2012, to signing Dwight Howard in 2013, trading for Chris Paul in 2017, and finally Russell Westbrook in 2019, Houston has never backed down from a challenge. This was never more apparent than during Golden State’s complete domination of the NBA landscape from 2015–2019. Outside of the Cleveland Cavaliers, Houston seemed to be the only team willing to challenge the Warriors, and they pushed them to their brink; culminating in a 3–2 series lead over them in the Western Conference Finals in 2018. If it wasn’t for a Chris Paul hamstring injury and a historic choke job in Game 7, the Rockets may have advanced and taken down (a very weak) Lebron James and Cleveland Cavaliers to win a title. But here in 2020, on the bank of a 4–1 second round loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, those days could not be further away.
Now the Rockets have a huge decision to make, just one summer after trading for superstar Russell Westbrook and half a season into going all in on “micro-ball”, it could be argued the Rockets should tear it all down. Do they finally cave in and commit to a rebuild — leading to them (most likely) parting ways with both Russell Westbrook and James Harden? Or do they give it another try? Or is it a combination of the two?
How can the Rockets stay competitive?
The biggest trademark of this Rockets group is the fact that they push the idea of “pace and space” to the extreme. With the second fastest pace, the highest three point attempted percentage (half of their shots being threes), and with no traditional center in their rotation, they looked to offset the lack of size by overwhelming teams with their shooting. And in the beginning, it was working. Clint Capela was traded from the Rockets to the Hawks on February 5th 2020, and between then and the restart, they went a respectable 8–5. That period included impressive wins over the top seeded Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, Utah Jazz and the Celtics again (this time in overtime). However, things changed in the bubble and the Rockets only went 4–4 in the seeding games, before being pushed to the brink by an over performing Thunder team, and then eventually losing to the Lakers in 5. It is important to note it was rumored that both Russell Westbrook and James Harden had COVID-19 during the hiatus, potentially leading to them not being as fit as possible for the playoffs.
During that Lakers series, it became more and more apparent that the Rockets advantage in shooting was not going to offset the humongous size differential. For context, the Rockets lined up with 6'5" PJ Tucker at center, while the Lakers lined up with 7'0" JaVale McGee. Even when the Lakers “went small” by benching both McGee and Dwight Howard later on into the series, the height between Markieff Morris (6'8"), Anthony Davis (6'10") and LeBron James (6'8") just tortured the Rockets. If the Rockets want to stay competitive, they’re going to need at least a competent center.
Houston doesn’t need to break the bank for a big guy, they just need a big who can, simply put, be big. Looking at the Boston Celtics for example, they’re also a team hinged on the play from their guards and forwards. But what sets them apart from the Rockets is that they have an adequate enough big man rotation between Daniel Thies, Enes Kanter, Grant Williams and Robert Williams. They all provide them with enough size so that the Celtics do not get battered inside every night. Even taking a look at the Rockets biggest enemy, the Golden State Warriors, where even during their dominant rule over the NBA, they never had a true dominant big man. There are a plethora of big options on the free agency market that can all come in and play 15–20 minutes a night and do their job.
Is trading Russell Westbrook possible?
Going back to that semi-dominant run the Rockets had at the beginning of their small ball era, Russell Westbrook was at the heart of it, playing the best basketball of his career. In the month of February, Westbrook played in 8 games and averaged 33.4 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game, while shooting a staggering 55% from the field — a level of efficiency almost unheard of in Westbrook’s career. This was due to the increased amount of space he had to attack without Clint Capela on the floor. With Capela on the floor, the Rockets had two non shooters (him and Westbrook), making it easier for opponents to help on Harden. Without Capela however, Westbrook saw more spread pick and rolls and had more space to attack than ever before in his career — and the results were positive.
However, all of that went out the window the moment the playoffs started. Westbrook missed the first 4 games of the playoffs as he nursed a quad injury, and he never looked the same once he came back, averaging only 17 points on 42% shooting in 8 games. At this moment in time, the Westbrook on display pre lockdown seems like a distant memory, and his value is dropping lower and lower. Westbrook will be owed as much as $46 million a year under his current contract (assuming he picks up his player option in 2022–23), which ends when he turns 34.
All of this is coupled with the fact that the Rockets have zero tradable assets to package alongside Westbrook and that it seems more and more likely he will be sticking around for at least next season. However, that may not be a bad outcome for the Rockets, because if any team is equipped with the shooting to space the floor for Westbrook, it’s them. They’ve proved they can build a team that gets the most out of him, it’s just a matter of developing it in the right way, and before his eventual decline (which depending on who you ask, may have already started).
The Big Question: Where does that leave James Harden?
James Harden is the life that drives this Houston Rockets team. From the moment he became a Rocket in 2012, he has exploded onto the scene, winning 3 scoring titles, the 2018 NBA MVP, the 2017 assist title and 7 All Star nods. He’s accomplished almost everything you can ask of a player from an individual standpoint. When it comes to putting the ball in the basket, Harden is among the NBA’s all time best. Harden is one of only 4 players to win 3 straight scoring titles since the NBA-ABA merger in 1979, the others being George Gervin, former teammate Kevin Durant, and arguably the greatest ever, Michael Jordan. And there’s no reason to think Harden can’t rack up another couple before he eventually retires. With that being said, and for as good of a scorer Harden is, he does have a couple big flaws in his game.
One big criticism of Harden in the past has been his defense. There are countless clips on the Internet of Harden in his days with the Thunder and early Rockets days of him not moving on defense at all, suggesting he’s a poor and lazy defender. But to his credit, he has stepped up in a big way the past couple seasons. Ironically enough, this is most highlighted most in (what used to be) the one game where no one played defense — the All Star game.
Another big criticism of Harden is that he stands around on offense if he doesn’t have the ball, making it easier for the defense to zone up the weak side. However, the Rockets do have a fair share of plays that get Harden coming off screens and running into a catch, but it is a fair criticism of him to say he doesn’t help his teammates if he doesn’t have the ball. This is even more pressing of an issue when Westbrook also needs the ball in his hands to be more effective, due to his low three point percentage (career 31% and 26% in 2019–20). This begs the question; How good could the Rockets be if Westbrook had the keys to the offense? Building further on that, how good could the Rockets be if they had Westbrook and another All Star level piece who compliments his game as opposed to Harden?
The last time Westbrook had full control over an offense, he won MVP in 2017, while averaging a 31.6 points, 10.7 assists and 10.4 rebounds per game, breaking the single season record for triple doubles (42). However, the Thunder did get bounced in the first round of those playoffs, funnily enough to the Rockets, and on top of that, it may be too much to assume Westbrook will play to that capability three years later. However, what that Thunder team didn’t have was another All-Star caliber piece to give Westbrook some help, and that’s the type of player the Rockets would demand back in any potential Harden trade.
What could a James Harden trade look like?
One potential rumored destination for James Harden are the Philadelphia 76ers. In this scenario, a trade package would either be formed around All NBA center Joel Embiid, or around former All Star Al Horford and any combination of Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson, Shake Milton and Matisse Thybulle. In either case, the Rockets would be reloading rather than rebuilding, giving Westbrook a big who can play off his strengths better than the ball dominant James Harden. It’s important to note all of these suggested trades are not set in stone, but rather mere estimations of potentially the value the Rockets could get out of Harden.
Another interesting trade partner for the Rockets could be the Indiana Pacers. With a log jam in the front court with Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis plus the rumored exit of Victor Oladipo, the Pacers could send one of those bigs plus Oladipo (and potentially another piece) to the Rockets for Harden. No matter the trade, it would seem likely the Rockets would be getting a talented big man, assuming they would want to move away from the micro ball experiment.
On the flip side, if the Rockets wanted to continue to play small ball while also shopping James Harden, an interesting trade partner could be the Los Angeles Clippers, in order to potentially reunite Westbrook with former teammate Paul George. George, who also had his struggles in the playoffs this year, played his best basketball alongside Westbrook in Oklahoma City, finishing third in MVP voting in 2019. Of course, the Clippers would need to give up a couple more pieces in order to obtain James Harden, but having the defensive minded George playing alongside Westbrook again could spark the Rockets into a new era.
However, a trade like this would have it’s issues. For one, Paul George and Russell Westbrook never made it past the first round in either of the two season they played together, losing to Utah and Portland in 2018 and 2019. And as previously mentioned, both players are coming off poor showing in the playoffs, suggesting they may not be the best fit alongside one another if the Rockets hope to make it deep in the playoffs. But that still doesn’t change the fact that it could be a very interesting trade that could give the fans in Houston something new to cheer about. On top of that, the additions of Zubac and Shamet give the Rockets some young pieces that can grow in the future. This is desperately needed in Houston considering their youngest player is 23 year old Chris Clemons, who played 9 minutes in 33 games this year.
The Verdict: Will James Harden be traded?
The short answer: probably not.
The long answer: it depends on the direction the Rockets choose. With inexperienced Rafael Stone being promoted into Morey’s job, it may suggest the Rockets want to start anew, but it will probably come down to who they hire as a head coach. If they go with a more experienced coach (either Van Gundy brother), it may signal their decision to run it back. But on the flip side, if they go with former player Sam Cassell, it may signal the beginning of the rebuild.
At the end of the day, James Harden will go down as one of the greatest Rockets of all time — with or without a title to his name. It would seem silly for the Rockets to just give up on him when he wasn’t the issue for the Rockets in the playoffs (averaging almost 30 a game in the playoffs just passed). However, with almost no assets and 0 young pieces on the roster, if the Rockets do choose to rebuild, pawning off Westbrook and Harden might become necessary in order to avoid becoming one of the worst franchises in the NBA in the foreseeable future.
In any case, changes will be coming to the Houston Rockets. Whether that be geared towards tearing the foundation of this team down, or making slight tweaks, keep an eye out for what a new front office could do to the Rockets. As for James Harden, he should feel relatively safe about his position in Houston, but in the NBA, you just never know.
*all stats were found on basketballreference.com unless stated otherwise
*game footage and photos used are not owned by me, they are property of the NBA is used for educational purposes
