Which NBA Stars Could be Dealt Next?
With James Harden (finally) being dealt to the Brooklyn Nets, this could be the final domino to fall before a flurry of trades come in, looking to change up the NBA landscape permanently.
Andre Drummond
With the arrival of Jarrett Allen in the front court as a result of the aforementioned James Harden deal, coupled with the eventual return of Kevin Love, it would be wise to think that Andre Drummond’s days in Cleveland are numbered. While his play hasn’t taken a dip that would suggest the Cavaliers would want to move on (18 points and 15 rebounds per game this year), Cleveland should prefer the younger and more mobile Allen over the old school bruiser in Drummond.
However, with that being said, there has to be someone willing to take on Drummond and his big $28 million salary. Despite leading the league in rebounds for what seems like the umpteenth time, his appeal may stem from that big expiring deal. With the summer of 2021 potentially having the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Victor Oladipo, shedding off what would be essentially a max contract slot could prove lucrative for some teams. On the flip side, if Cleveland wants to bite the bullet and play the year out with both Allen and Drummond, they could use that cap space themselves to try and lure someone else in. It would all come down to whether Cleveland believes they can use that cap space wisely, and whether or not the right offer comes up.
A likely scenario for Cleveland would be to find a team that could use an upgrade at the center slot, while also having long term plans at trying to sign someone with that potential opening in cap space. From there, a potential trade package could be a couple smaller expiring deals plus a young piece and some picks. At the end of the day, it’s not much value for Drummond, but considering his style of play is almost archaic in the modern NBA, it might be all Cleveland can get. However, it would seem foolish for Cleveland to keep both these bigs on their roster, a deal seems inevitable at this point.
Likeliness: 9/10
Bradley Beal
Before the season started, it would seem ludicrous to even fathom the idea of the Wizards parting ways with their star guard. Especially after Washington just dealt John Wall to Houston for Russell Westbrook with the intention of keeping Beal happy and the Wizards competitive. But competitive is the last thing Washington is this season, and after an abysmal 3–8 start to the season, maybe it’s time to blow things up in the capital. It’s been clear this year that even in the short time they’ve spent together, Westbrook and Beal are not a match made in heaven on the court, and cutting their losses early could seriously be on the cards.
On the other hand, trading Beal away would most certainly mean trading Westbrook away also, as the only thing worse than keeping these two together would be keeping an injury prone, 32 year old Russell Westbrook by himself to frontline this team. In that case, it’s going to be almost impossible to find a team to take on both of these players, but a multi team deal or two separate deals could work.
With trading Beal and/or Westbrook, the scenarios are very different. With Beal, you’re dealing the top scorer in the NBA (34.9 PPG), an elite shot maker which any team would die for. Any Beal deal will end up with Washington receiving a star in return, along with other young talents back. While it may not be Ben Simmons and the Sixers making this move, this would certainly be the mold for a potential deal (if it were to happen). With Westbrook, it’s more cutting your losses, and attempting to find a team foolish enough to bite on the cherry. And when it comes to teams being star hungry and blinded by actual NBA knowledge, the Knicks take the cake. But with any Westbrook trade, the best Washington would hope for is a first round pick, and a bunch of expiring deals to relax the cheque book. If the Wizards are lucky, maybe they’ll get another young piece to play with.
But going back to Beal, despite the struggles in Washington right now, it seems highly unlikely the Wizards would trade away Wall and then Beal in the span of a few months. They should give their fans a little more respect than that.
Likeliness: 2/10
Julius Randle
New York flew out of the gates this year, to a 5–3 start that had everyone in total confusion and awe. Spearheaded by new head coach Tom Thibodeau and his questionable tactic to run his starters into the ground, many Knicks players looked a lot better than their usual selves. This was none more true than for Julius Randle, who is currently averaging 23 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists per game on a wild 50% from the field. But now that New York has cooled off and has lost their last 5, there may be some moves on the horizon. If this cold streak were to continue, New York could look to shed even more salary to create as much cap space as possible to land some big free agents. Randle is one of the few players on this roster taking up any significant cap space ($19 million a year).
Another potential reason for the Knicks to deal Randle, is because they just took Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year, Obi Toppin, in the lottery this past draft. With Randle there in New York taking up those minutes ahead of him, there just is not enough minutes for him, Randle and bigs Mitchell Robinson, Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson. So it would make sense in any Randle deal for the Knicks to get rid of the log jam in front court and get back a competent guard to help attract free agents in the summer. With the NBA slowly starting to ease in more big lineups, between the destruction of the small ball Rockets, the success of the LA Lakers and to some extent the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics, Randle’s value in the NBA suddenly takes a big increase. He is in a very select group of bigs who are mobile enough to handle the ball and strong enough to play both the 5 and 4. That type of play style holds more value in a contender than in New York for sure.
Likeliness: 5/10
John Collins
John Collins’ time in Atlanta hasn’t been without its fair share of hurdles. From a 25 game suspension to the Hawks not wanting to pay him the big bucks, to feuds with co-star Trae Young, coupling this all with what seems like an overload at the big spots for the Hawks, and it would not seem too surprising for the Hawks to move on. Between Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari, De’Andre Hunter and rookie Onyeka Okongwu, there might just not be enough minutes for a player who seemingly does not even like the main star of the team. Finally, with his defensive woes being more prevalent than ever this year, the Hawks could do better to give Trae Young more defensive help (that he desperately needs).
Looking at Collins’ numbers (16 points and 7 rebounds a game), at a first glance you would think he has the potential at age 23, to grow into maybe an All Star level player. But with all the off the court issues he reportedly brings, on top of his aforementioned lackluster defense and average three point shooting (36%), the value is not as high as it could be. There have also been questions in the past about Collins and him putting up these big numbers because he’s on a bad a team, which are even more cause for concern. With that being said, there is still some value there, and a first round pick plus a flyer on another young piece (for example Kevin Porter Jr in this potential trade) seems like a fair estimation of Collins’ value. At the end of the day it comes down to whether or not Atlanta wants to pull the trigger, but there have been reports of Cleveland wanting to make a trade for Collins, so the option is always there.
Likeliness: 6/10
LaMarcus Aldridge
This might be the year where LaMarcus Aldridge’s age finally catches up to him. Now 35 years old, he’s had lingering knee issues that have kept him out of a few games this year. And the games he has played, he’s been up and down. Averaging 14.7 points and 5.3 rebounds this year, the big will be entering free agency this summer looking for potentially one last deal before maybe hanging it up. But could San Antonio find a way to get just that little extra value out of him before he (most likely) leaves in the summer.
Much like most of these trades so far, the name of the game is to get a young piece, a pick, and maintain the salary relief the team would have had by keeping the star. In this specific case, the Spurs would get their young piece in Marvin Bagley, who clearly looks disengaged in Sacramento, and who’s father does not even want him there. On top of this, they also get an extra pick and another competent guard in Cory Joseph, who would most likely be flipped to a contender for more young value. Because of Aldridge’s advanced age, knee problems and declining skill set, there is not much value there. But if San Antonio can find the right partner, anything is worth more than just losing him in the summer of 2021. Finally, getting a young big back would finally give the Spurs a young asset who isn’t in the backcourt.
Likeliness: 5/10
Kyle Lowry
I don’t think anyone could have predicted this. The 2019 NBA champion Toronto Raptors, after 11 games, are 3–8, tied for second worst in the Eastern Conference. It was expected that after losing Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard in 2019 free agency, and then Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in 2020 free agency, it would finally catch up to Toronto and their success in the East would begin to falter. But no one expected it to hit this hard, and now the Raptors are left with the remnants of a broken Finals contender that has 34 year old Kyle Lowry entering free agency this summer, Fred VanVleet whom they just payed big bucks to, and a struggling Paskal Siakam who is on a max deal. There are many decisions to make, and even more questions about this Raptors team.
The big question lies with Lowry. Do the deal him now to get some value back from their aging star? Do they run the risk and let him enter free agency? If they do bring him back, what type of deal will it be? Do they keep the fans happy and keep him this year, only to let him walk in 2021? One thing is for sure, if the Raptors do continue to struggle (and let’s face it, is a real possibility), the probability of Lowry being moved increases more and more. Siakam and VanVleet have just been handed new contracts, and along with OG Anunoby and Chris Boucher, form a new core Toronto can build off in the future. The last aging piece is Lowry, who if we’re talking strictly financially, should be dealt.
From the perspective of Toronto, getting younger while also staying competitive should be the top priority in any Lowry trade. Younger is not the issue, most players are not at Lowry’s advanced age. But finding that balance between future value, and being able to win now around VanVleet and Siakam is key. On top of that, Toronto can use this trade as an opportunity to take back some expiring deals to maintain a sizeable amount of cap space for the summer. On the flip side, any team that takes on Lowry is running the risk of him leaving in 2021, but a team like Dallas, who feel they are one piece away from really contending, might be willing to take that risk to give it a run in the Finals, reminiscent of Toronto making that leap with Kawhi Leonard. At the end of the day though, trading Lowry makes sense for the franchise up north, but does Masai Ujiri have the heart to trade away one of the most beloved players in franchise history? Only time will tell.
Likeliness: 1/10
*all stats were found on basketballreference.com unless stated otherwise
*game footage and photos used are not owned by me, they are property of the NBA is used for educational purposes
