When will foldable phones become affordable?

For now, foldables smartphones remain a premium product with the price-tag to match. They’re pitched at early adopters and those with case to flash. Eventually, that’s going to change.

As with all technologies, foldable smartphones will mature. They’ll become more commodified and less novel over time. This happens with basically every technology in the mobile market from AMOLED displays to triple-lens cameras and 5G connectivity. In some ways, the gradual trend towards affordable foldables is inevitable.

For reference, here’s a chart showing the Australian launch pricing for all the major foldable smartphones thus far:

With the exception of Huawei’s Mate XS — which bucks the trend — foldable smartphones are already beginning to curve downwards when it comes to price.

In addition, reports out of the Display Supply Chain Consultation suggest that Samsung is looking to introduce a third more affordable option in their Galaxy Z lineup in 2021. If that’s indeed the case, then the average RRP for foldable smartphones will likely continue on this trajectory.

According to the DSCC:

Samsung was clearly the dominant brand in 2020 with over a 90% share in Q3’20 and Q4’20 on a panel procurement basis and an 87% share for the year.

By model, the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip and the Z Fold 2 are expected to be the two best-selling foldables in 2020 on both a unit and revenue basis.

Samsung’s shipment share by region was shown with Korea expected to be the #1 region for foldables in 2020

Samsung is currently the foldable manufacturer to beat and while some brands like Huawei are looking to compete on technology, others will probably look to price as a point of difference. This, along with the typical trend towards affordability and commodification in mobile technologies, should help push the price of foldable smartphones down to a level where they’re within the reach of more consumers.

While mid-tier foldables are likely a ways off, it’s a safe prediction to say that we’re likely only two or three years away from a blending of foldable and flagship pricing. Once that happens, the existing ecosystem around carrier subsidies should help make foldable smartphones much more affordable and commonplace than they are today.