The Battle of Winterfell Survival Tiers
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” was Game of Thrones at its best. Nearly every character interaction struck as true as a dragonglass dagger thrown by Arya Stark. Even the more “fanservice” moments felt earned. Tormund’s tall tales have been a thing since he showed up north of the wall (shouts to Sheila the Bear). Arya and Gendry’s chemistry may have evolved from friendly to intimate, but it was there going back to season two — and also doubled as a nice payoff to Robert’s proposal to Ned back in season one about joining their houses. Jaime knighting Brienne was a more powerful and intimate moment than any theoretical hook up would have been. And Podrick Payne’s rendition of “Jenny of Oldstones” was one of the top musical moments of the entire series.
Yet rather than continuing to wax poetic about the brilliance of an episode spent in the calm before the battle, let’s instead look ahead to the climatic conflict of a Song of Ice and Fire.
In a somewhat amusing inversion of what we’ve come to expect from Game of Thrones, the biggest question heading into the Battle of Winterfell isn’t which characters will die… it’s which will survive. To help figure that out I’ve broken all the major characters at Winterfell into tiers of how likely they are to still be standing at the end of next week’s episode.
Tier 1: What is dead is about to be super dead — Theon, Grey Worm
Theon’s arc hit its climax when he rescued Sansa from Winterfell. Sure he’s managed to get kicked in his now impervious groin a few times and rescue Yara, but the former ward of Ned Stark has been mostly just killing time until his inevitable heroic death. Even before he volunteered to guard Bran in the Godswood, Theon’s fate was sealed.
As far as Grey Worm, my man started planning a vacation. NEVER PLAN VACATIONS BEFORE A GIANT BATTLE. It’s probably for the best. Narth may be beautiful, but the butterflies are deadly.
Tier 2: Maybe hold off on buying a summer wardrobe — Tormund, Edd, Beric, Jorah
I’m not ready for Tormund Giantsbane to leave my life. But the fiery wildling seems destined to sacrifice himself to save Brienne. Which is a shame. They would have made massive babies.
Edd and Beric are both the last soldiers of their causes. The Brotherhood without Banners is down to one brother and the Lord Commander Night’s Watch is now stuck standing on a significantly shorter wall. Both are likely done.
Jorah is another character who’s quickly running out of plot. He gave Tyrion his blessing as Hand of the Queen, removing himself from that potential position, and thus making himself more disposable. But he did just get gifted a big f**king Valyrian Steel sword, so he might just have a chance.
Tier 3: If you want to book a Kings Landing AirBNB that’s fine just make sure it offers a good cancellation policy — Gendry, Brienne, Bran, Gilly, Davos, Ghost, Nymeria, Varys, Podrick, the Night King
There’s a lot in this tier, so lets get through most of them rapid fire. Gendry is a natural successor to Storm’s End but he also slept with a girl who worships death. Gilly and Varys are in the crypts which don’t actually seem like the safest place to be. Ghost and Nymeria should just throw up middle paws to this conflict, run off and have direwolf puppies, but they will probably fight instead. Both Podrick and Brienne peaked this past episode and thus are in imminent peril. Davos needs to stay alive forever since he’s the one logical, sensible man in the Seven Kingdoms, but he also just served a girl who looked a bit like Shireen soup which isn’t ideal.
Which brings us to Bran and the Night King. I’m getting a real “Neither can live while the other survives” vibe from these two but I’m not sure Dumbledore is gonna be waiting for Bran Stark at King’s Cross. Bran may be the “memory of mankind” or whatever as the Three Eyed Raven, but we have two eligible chroniclers left in the ranks (Sam and Tyrion) so I’m not sure how much that designation actually buys him. The Night King is either going to get killed this episode or fly his Ice Dragon down to Kings Landing for a rematch. I have a sneaking suspicion Jon Snow takes him out this week though.
Tier 4: Almost certainly safe on any show but Game of Thrones: Sansa, Arya, Jaime Lannister, Sam, Rhaegal, Drogon, The Hound, Jon Snow
Of the two Stark girls, Arya’s death would surprise me least. But I have a feeling she’ll say “not today” or rather “not tonight” to death next episode. Sansa seems like a lock to serve as Lady of Winterfell at show’s end, so her death would portend a pretty dark ending for the series.
Jaime, Sam and the Hound all have business left to attend. I’m still banking on Jaime to fulfill the valonqar prophecy and kill Cersei to prevent her from doing exactly what Aerys Targaryen tried to do. Sam seems like the natural person to write the “A Song of Ice and Fire.” The Hound still has Cleganebowl to fight in. Of course it would be classic Game of Thrones to kill off someone with seemingly unfinished business.
We’ve seen that the White Walkers can certainly take down a Dragon but it feels like the show already shot that ice javelin once, and it seems unlikely it will for a second time.
Which brings us to Jon Snow. You could certainly argue he should be in the next tier. We’re talking about perhaps THE hero of a story called “A Song of Ice and Fire.” His true parentage was the core mystery of the series. He’s already been resurrected once. And yet, you could argue the destiny of the prince who was promised is to sacrifice himself to defeat the White Walkers once and for all.
As much as has been made of his claim to the Iron Throne and despite all the forshadowing of a new “Dance” between the two Targaryen heirs, Jon has never expressed any ambition for the Iron Throne. Which altogether makes me less than certain that Jon/Aegon will survive the battle.
Tier 5: Impenetrable Plot Armor: Tyrion, Daenerys
Tyrion’s plot armor isn’t such that I think he’s a lock to survive the series, but Winterfell doesn’t seem like the place he’ll die. Tyrion’s path seems destined to end in King’s Landing one way or another. Perhaps even moreso than Jaime it seems Tyrion is fated to go head to head with Cersei one last time.
Like Tyrion, Daenerys’ is a lock to make it to King’s Landing. Whether she sits on it, shares it, destroys it, or perishes fighting for it Daenerys is going to come face to face with the Iron Throne. The Mother of Dragons is 100% safe next week.
