I Watched Hundreds of Campaign Ads So You Wouldn’t Have To
By Valery Nunez
The Democratic campaign ads in the 2018 midterms told a very compelling story that might have foreshadowed top priorities during this upcoming term. However, how many of us are actually paying attention?
When I applied for an internship in which I would be watching several hundred ads and collecting data on recurring issues, I was nervous but inspired. Although the project seemed outlandish, I was ready to make a striking discovery that would change the way those running for political office convey messages to their voters. However, as a millennial and college student deeply familiar with voter suppression, I wondered: who watches political ads anymore?
My project was to collect as much data as possible on the campaign ads for the candidates running in the targeted “red to blue” House races, which are competitive districts that do not have a Democratic incumbent. These district elections were key to winning a Democratic majority in the House. As part of the Social Policy and Politics team at Third Way, we were looking for salient terms, issues and important phrases mentioned that could provide insight on what these candidates were saying to voters.
I was impressed by the creativity of some ads and discovered effective ways these ads attracted viewers. For example, an ad released by Dean Phillips went viral and drew widespread attention to political ads. The Minnesota candidate compared his opponent, Erik Paulsen, to Big Foot; always hunted but never found. He criticized his opponent for not being available enough for his constituents and failing to accurately represent the district’s concerns. Although the ad, on its own, can’t take credit for Dean Phillips’ election win, it was central in giving him the exposure he needed.
In our analysis, we also found patterns that revealed some of the major messages candidates sent regarding healthcare, the economy, national security, corruption, and many more topics. Several polls marked healthcare as a top issue in this election cycle, and this was reflected in the campaign ads. Out of all ads, 59 percent discussed healthcare issues, like the opioid crisis, drug costs and preexisting conditions. Candidates were not afraid to take a stance on protecting preexisting conditions and oftentimes campaigned solely on these positions. They were, however, less adamant on promoting “single-payer” healthcare and instead denounced high premiums and the age tax. I would be lying if I said I didn’t try to find controversy in every ad. Yet, deliberately so, the candidates in these districts generally adopted a careful approach to these arguably partisan issues and mostly focused on healthcare, the economy and corruption.
With the amount of ads I replayed to make sure I got every detail, you can more accurately claim that I watched a couple thousand ads, instead of hundreds. I was definitely compensating for the 20 years I spent avoiding political ads. Having access to an ad database, I was able to replay and scrutinize the wording of the ads, but I am aware that most viewers weren’t able to do so. After watching many of these usually thirty second messages, I had trouble keeping up with the point and would have to frequently rerun these ads. Apart from a few exceptions, the ads were not very specific on main issues and focused on emphasizing key concepts that would be captured by the audience. Although the ads were short, fast-paced, concise and therefore difficult to process, there were always important issues and key terms that resonated with me. For example, the protection of Social Security was an issue that stuck with me when I encountered the economic ads, and I’m sure it also stuck with many older voters.
Some candidates also included their personal life stories to relate with voters. Georgia’s recently elected representative Lucy McBath shared her experience with gun violence by discussing the devastating murder of her son. She was one of the few candidates that fervently advocated for social justice in her ads. Watching the ads, I quickly developed an idea of each candidate’s platform and quickly formed an opinion. If a candidate wasn’t insistent on discussing certain issues that seemed to be on everyone’s mind, like tackling corruption or access to healthcare, I became suspicious and probed their stance a bit more. In fact, I quickly felt like an expert in these ads, compared to my fellow classmates, and would often speak of candidates like Dana Balter, a Sanders-style Justice Democrat who lost the election in district NY-24, and Xochitl Torres Small, who ran and won in a border district with a tough and smart take on immigration.
Although the project might seem bizarre, watching hundreds of ads led to important data signaling the issues prioritized in this election cycle. A study conducted for the American Political Science Review proved that ads have a strong but ephemeral effect on voting preferences. This explains why most of the ads were concentrated in October, a month before the midterm elections. Voters would be paying more attention the closer the election got. Although most ads reflected national issues like healthcare, the economy and corruption, there were also local themes that differentiated the ads. I noticed that some issues were area-specific, such as environmental changes, which were concentrated in Florida and California,. These Democratic candidates knew the stakes and were outspoken on the issues that were directly impacting their respective districts.
With record turnout rates, several campaign ads going viral, and voters being mobilized on social media, it is safe to say that these midterm elections caused a frenzy unlike no other recent election. Voters were energized this cycle, determined to participate, and yes they were listening. Watching these ads gave me a well-rounded perspective on issues that matter to voters nationwide and locally. And as a voter myself, I connected to the ads that appealed to the identities and experiences I embody. Although I do not recommend watching hundreds of ads all at once, when an ad in your district comes on TV, pay attention- this is the voice you could be electing.
Valery Nunez served as a 2018 fall intern for the Social Policy & Politics Program at Third Way.
