Interactive: See The Coalition Democrats Need To Win In 2017

By David de la Fuente

Previously, I wrote about how Independents and moderates would determine the winners of the 2017 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. That still holds up, and Democrats should be cautiously optimistic about their chances in both elections based on the polling available. We’ll take a look at the current rundown in both states, and then you’ll have a chance to make your own prediction with our interactive tool below.

New Jersey

New Jersey has a lot more Democratic voters than Republican ones. The electorate that reelected Republican Chris Christie in 2013 was 40% Democratic, 28% Republican, and 31% Independent. His victory can be attributed to near unanimity with Republican voters, a huge lead with Independents, and a third of the Democratic vote.

But recent polls have shown Democrat Phil Murphy with a double-digit lead because he has shored up the Democratic base and was either tied among or led with Independents. An October Fox News poll had Murphy winning Democrats 79% to 6% over Republican Kim Guadagno and up 40% to 22% with Independents for an overall 47% to 33% lead. An October Fairleigh Dickinson poll had Murphy up overall by a nearly identical 47% to 32%. But in this case, it was predicting a somewhat more Democratic electorate, and Murphy led 81% to 5% with Democrats and was basically tied with Independents (26% to 25%).

This goes to show that both the partisan share of the electorate and the breakdown of voter preference can both have a big impact on how the election goes down. But even with a more Democratic-leaning electorate, Murphy would have to at least run even among voters in the middle.

Virginia

Polls currently vary more in Virginia, with anything from a double-digit lead for Democrat Ralph Northam to a single-point lead for Republican Ed Gillespie. But the main variance appears to be what the partisan share of the electorate will be.

An October Monmouth poll found Gillespie ahead, mainly thanks to the fact that it was predicting an electorate that was two points more Republican than Democratic. For reference, the 2013 gubernatorial contest had a five-point Democratic advantage. An October Quinnipiac poll found a 53% to 39% Northam lead thanks to the fact that it had a likely voter universe that was 10 points more Democratic than Republican. An October Fox News poll had Northam leading 49% to 42% overall, thanks to another Democratic turnout advantage (but one much more similar to the actual 2013 electorate).

Quite remarkably, all three pollsters found Northam winning over 90% of Democrats and leading with Independents. Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe lost Independents in his 2013 victory, so if Northam holds on to his lead with Independents, only a bad Democratic turnout night compared to Republican turnout might be able to sink him. Likewise, if Democratic turnout is slightly higher than Republican turnout, Northam can still only afford to lose Independents by single digits or else he’ll lose.

See For Yourself

In advance of the elections next week, we’ve put together a fun interactive tool that lets you play around with the partisan share of the electorate and how these three groups will vote. A chart to the right will react with the overall results, as you make and change your predictions.

Technically, it is very simple, but you may need to know a few things. Download the Google Sheet by clicking ‘File’ and then ‘Download As,’ and then download in your preferred format. You can edit data in the nine cells that are in both columns ‘B,’ ‘C,’ and ‘D,’ and in rows ‘4,’ ‘5,’ and ‘6.’ These cells should have a light blue background. Editing these cells will cause the final results to change and help you make an overall prediction based on your predictions about partisan share and division of the electorate. You can edit totals for the share of the electorate and how groups will vote for the Democratic and Republican nominees. Votes for the third party candidates will be determined automatically from your predictions for the major party nominees.

If you have any questions, feel free to email me at ddelafuente@thirdway.org. We’d love to see your predictions, and be sure to tag us on twitter at @TWPolitical.

Hope you have fun!

David de la Fuente is a political analyst at Third Way