What Democrats Can Learn From The Iowa Victory
By Ryan Pougiales
On Tuesday, Iowa Democrats had a breakthrough special election win. Phil Miller, a large animal veterinarian and school board member, retained Democratic control in House District 82 (HD-82). This victory has real implications for Democrats in Iowa and around the country — both because of the nature of the district itself and the way in which Miller won it.
House District 82, located in the southeast part of the state, is not an easy place to win as a Democrat — at least not these days. According to Census Bureau data, the district is overwhelmingly white and rural, two demographic groups Democrats struggled to win over in 2016. Nearly 90% of the district’s voting-age population identifies as non-Hispanic white and almost 70% lives in rural areas.
And though Democrats previously held the seat in question, the district swung hard to the right between 2012 and 2016. In 2012, Barack Obama won the district’s presidential vote by a mere two points, but last year Donald Trump won it by a whopping 21 points. And yet on Tuesday, Miller won HD-82 by nine points — a 30-point Democratic swing in only 10 months.
So how did Miller do it? He crafted a broad path to victory, which required engaging on issues that speak to lots of types of voters. Instead of running only on opposition to Donald Trump or advocating for far-left policies in hopes of energizing base voters, Miller ran on his record as a small businessman and acknowledged the economic concerns of his community, calling for “lowering taxes and increasing wages.” Most importantly, he ran on the promise that he would represent the specific interests of this southeast Iowa district in the State House. His message had broad appeal — all politics are local, after all — and a wide cross-section of voters embraced it.
By contrast, state Republicans tried and failed to nationalize the race. They attempted to tie Miller to Party leaders like Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi. And they tried to polarize the electorate with attacks on issues like access to public bathrooms — even though transgender Iowans have been protected under state non-discrimination law for a decade.
Miller’s victory extends Democrats’ strong record in Trump-era special elections. In the 31 special elections tracked by Daily Kos since last December, Democratic candidates have outperformed Hillary Clinton by an average of 13 points. What is so important about Miller’s win in particular is that he succeeded in a type of district that many feared might be unattainable for Democrats in the foreseeable future. To compete and win in the districts that moved away from Democrats in 2016, the Party must forge a broad path. Follow Miller’s lead.
Ryan Pougiales is a senior political analyst at Third Way.
