2017 Kentucky Derby Predictions
The Kentucky Derby is tomorrow! I can’t wait. I got to get Pat Day’s autograph the other day at Kroger and it was a blast.
Fun fact. 25 years ago, he won on the Derby on the back of a huge long shot. A $2 ticket to win would have earned you $35.60. Not a bad payout! Here’s that race from 1992
He is also one of my all time favorite people in the sport. When I was a kid, I would look for his name on the program and just bet on him for the 9 races at Keeneland. If I did that, I would usually earn some sort of money from it.
Enough about all the fun that comes with racing. Lets move onto who to bet on. This year the Derby feels wide open and there isn’t a huge favorite like years past. American Pharoah’s M/L odds were 9/4. A $2 win bet would get you $6.50. This year, the same bet on the favorite will get you $10.
So this field is a lot more open. Here is a link to this year’s post position and the M/L odds that go with it. [Link Here]
This is the horse to beat. He was last year’s champion 2-year-old and the favorite going into the Derby. I’ve heard several people all say that no matter what, this horse will finish on the tote board.
That makes me feel extremely confident that he will finish in the top 3 at least. I wrote about how confident I was in this horse back in February on my other blog. That’s how confident I am in him doing well in this race.
Irish War Cry
This is another horse that I feel very confident in. He has solid odds at 6–1 and is just a very attractive horse to bet on. He is near the outside which isn’t ideal, but not terrible (PP- 17). His best race was in the Holy Bull [G2] where he beat Classic Empire and Gunnevera. Gunnevera was the points leader going into the Derby and still a great horse. So he took down two great Derby contenders in one race.
The more I think about this horse, the more I get excited. I feel like he is another horse to beat in this race. I don’t like doing exotic wagering, but if I did one, having these 2 in an exacta box would feel very promising.
He does make me nervous with his loss in the Fountain of Youth S. Where he was the overwhelming favorite. His odds were 1–1! He ended up finishing 7th. That makes me nervous, but I still think he will be a great horse to bet on.
[Long Shot] Irap
Onto the money maker. He’s my bet on a long shot win. Irap won the Blue Grass Stakes as a huge underdog with odds of 31–1. A $2 win ticket would have earned you $64.50!!! That was one of the last prep races and he took down some big names in that race. He beat McCraken (in Derby), Practical Joke (in Derby) and Tapwrit (in Derby). So he took down some big horses in that race. I think he will be a great contender as an underdog.
His jockey is also 2–2 in the Derby. That’s pretty darn impressive.
[Don’t bet] McCraken
I wrote about him before, and was skeptical of him before. (I never published the post… it was from February…) I wrote about how I thought he would be a good contender, but he was untested. He wasn’t going up against any other big contenders. Well once he did, he lost. He came in 3rd in the Blue Grass Stakes and lost to 2 horses that are running in the Derby tomorrow.
He has good odds right now at 5–1, but I just don’t see this horse winning. If he runs a good race, I won’t be surprised. If he wins though, I would be surprised. I don’t know why, but I am just not feeling any exceptional feelings towards him. If you aren’t in love with the horse, don’t bet on him. That’s my opinion on him.