Software is just a vintage by-product of the Microprocessor era… but for how long?
Is programming a by-product of the processor era… but for how long?
Case : Software/Coding/Programming is just a by-product because of the processor era, so the skill what we call software programming might not be required for the next era of technology industry.
Point: Not all era would need the skills of its previous era… Horse driving skills where not required when cars came, after the horse cart era, the skills needed were how to drive cars. In the printing industry, the typesetters were not required when offset printing came and similar examples can be found in other industries. When the microprocessor industry solves the original intent of the microprocessor, its vintage by-product called software will not be required, hence software might not be a forever industry.
Vintage by-product !!
In My Humble Opinion:
The current tech industry was built around the Integrated circuit(IC) and one of its major accomplishment was the microprocessor(uP) because of which the software industry came along. The programming nature of the microprocessor meant that programs(software) were needed and hence the software industry was created to solve the problem from being a pure hardware problem to a ‘hardware + software’ solution.
The initial computational devices built with integrated circuits like the calculator were built without software components. As the industry tried to commoditize the IC industry with generic products, it came up with this programmable IC or the microprocessor, this enabled reuse of the same IC for different products by just changing the customizing instructions called programs(software) and thus the software industry was created. The by-product (software) required to satisfy the solution and its industry (programming) has taken a life of its own and has been classified as vintage good for a new industry[1]. Is this high growth, conquering the world nature of this software industry a ‘forever’ industry? …will it continue for ever? But how long can it continue?
…But how long?
The purpose of integrated circuits/microprocessor/computers were to solve complex computational and repetitive jobs, so computers were just a means for the solution and was not the end product.
This trend to move the solution to a mere customization effort happens in all maturing industries. The nuts and bolts required for the industry becomes commodities and thus in maturing industries, the designers and assembly lines direct the show in building the end solutions.
In the technology software industry, this trend to move things to higher level of stack and to build and reuse standard nuts and bolts for the industry is already happening. The industry is evolving from Assembly language to high level language to more mature libraries and frameworks. So in this progression, my thought is that the skill we call coding/programming where some one feeds in computer’s logical instructions called software programming, per problem per solution, would not be a major skill when the industry matures. This is because software the internal combustion engine of this industry would have been standardized and only a few companies would have to ponder in to create new engines for the entire industry.
Industry evolves to solve the core problem …
An industry evolves to solve a particular human problem, the car industry tries to solve the commuting/transportation problem of humanity. The transportation industry, during its evolution, would need horse drivers or car drivers or driver-less cars. Thus if the transportation solution is a driver-less car, this skill called ‘driving’ is not required for the transportation industry.
The size of the industry’s skilled workers would also reduce as the industry matures with standardization, optimization and mass production . Think how a car is produced in assembly line with lot of standard nuts, bolts, engines, meters etc which are just sourced from specifications.
Similarly…
The technology industry is trying to solve the computational problems of the world and the industry’s current solution is a fixed hardware packed with a flexible software solution, so hence there is a hardware industry and a software industry.
Belief …
My belief is that somebody is going to think outside the current hardware and software based solution. Software is just a tool for creating the product, so somebody is going to build a better tool which can be used to visualize the idea and the end solution be assembled automatically from a specification or just from the idea. The machine called computer would do the necessary iterations to provide the designer optimized solutions. The industry’s main task would be to come up with idea representation for various problems.
Soon, this industry would find a solution to transform an idea into a “optimal hardware + software solution” without manual software programming… and in that era, all our current custom built software would look like custom built vintage cars.
* * *
[This is my answer to Peter Thiel’s famous question of “What is something you believe that nearly no one agrees with you on ?”
“Most people believe software programming will be required for ever, but I believe programming will not be required in the next era in technology.”
This belief about software is something which has been on my mind from the day I started coding, that there should not be coding. There is something unnatural about telling a computer to do things in an artificial way..there should be better ways to input and design a system without coding.]
Yes, This is shooting for the moon … why not?…I have seen the moon … and it should not be that far away ….
Do send me your thoughts/comments.
@ggonweb on Twitter https://twitter.com/ggonweb
@ggonweb on Medium https://medium.com/@ggonweb
Notes:
[1] Vintage Period in an industry — the period where hackers and hacked up solutions form the industry to take over a previous industry.
Image: thanks
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4e/Chaine_Citroen_typea.jpg
http://ih1.redbubble.net/image.7378763.9570/flat,550x550,075,f.u2.jpg
Reference:
@pmarca “ It’s fascinating to watch the explanations why every kid in the world shouldn’t learn to code grow increasingly theoretical and baroque. :-) “ https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/517737302999580672
“ Why Software Is Eating The World “ http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460
Discussions:
Quora : http://www.quora.com/Is-software-just-a-vintage-by-product-of-the-microprocessor-era
Reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/2iqgo9/software_is_just_a_vintage_byproduct_of_the/
HackerNews: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8433279
