6 Predictions About The Future Of Mobile Photography
More than a year ago I have wrote about the future of mobile photography, and, in particular, what mobile photography would look like in the future.
The key issue that I focused on was that Apple should open up Camera APIs that will, essentially, give access to RAW imaging data from the sensor.
A lot of things have changed since then. Microsoft has actually introduced RAW (DNG) support in Lumia phones in the fall of 2013, essentially creating a niche market for pro-level smartphone camera. Those Zeiss-blessed Lumia phones do have amazing optical design, great hardware, and, with DNG support, it offers unparalleled processing power.
Google’s Android has also stepped up in a number of ways. Google released a new separate camera app in spring of this year, essentially saying “f*** you” to the hardware manufacturers that used to butcher Android with custom skins and apps.
In June we also received a solid confirmation to earlier rumours that Android was also building a RAW support. The next version of Android, named Android L, with extended APIs should be in developers hands around fall time.
In August, Lytro Illum has launched, based on Android. I have been talking about Android taking over more and more markets for a while, and now we see a solid move from smartphones to in-car systems, and — of course — dedicated photo cameras.
What about iPhone?
Interestingly — and predictably — iPhone didn’t follow my suggestions. However, iOS 8 introduced a lot of improvements in the camera department. Predictably, camera quality is one of the most important features of smartphones. No one would seriously care about call quality or sound quality, as long as they work, but people are striving to take better photos with less effort.
The new iOS features a lot more fine tuning, introducing it for both Apple-designed apps and opening a lot of APIs to use with third-party developers.
For example, apps will be able to have fully manual controls, controlling focus, white balance, ISO and exposure compensation, opening a range of opportunities for developers, like William Wilkinson’s with Manual.
That’s a big step step in the right direction, offering seasoned photographers more freedom to express themselves.
Looking into next year
When you look at things from my perspective, you will be naturally very excited. I think that apart from actual invention of photography, there has never been so much promise and so much progress in such a short time.
For example, it was only a few weeks ago that we were wowed by the Microsoft’s research in the hyperlapse, and dreamed about how cool it would be to have an app like that, to actually having Instagram’s new Hyperlapse app, that is not just another research, but a delightful app that lives up to it’s promise.
Through my work with other photo startups I have been exposed to the new thinking and new methods of research. It is probably true that software is eating the world, and this time it’s photography, that is being eaten and reinvented.
So here’s a list of 6 predictions as to what we’ll see in a year.
1. More affordable full frame cameras in the compact body design.
Think of the ultra-expensive-but-wonderful Sony RX1. Probably the biggest surprise that we saw was the introduction of Sony A7, A7r and A7s, which showed that it is possible to put full frame sensor in compact body.
We’ll see more of those cameras, with fixed or interchangeable lenses. The prices will also be gradually falling as the market expands. The sensor cost will still be significant, so I don’t expect prices for full frame to fall below $1500, all while a few manufacturers will play with this interesting form factor.
2. Mirrorless cameras will get even smaller
We have seen this happening already — big bulky DSLRs replaced by much more compact mirror less cameras, and compact cameras almost completely dying as smartphones approached and exceeded the compact camera quality. Cameras like just announced Canon G7X or Sony RX100 III show a promise of a compact camera with a 1” sensor, enough for great quality photos in low light situations, allowing to bring a camera with you in more places.
3. New software and hardware light field cameras
Lytro showed us that it’s possible, and next year we will see software mimicking the effect as well as new hardware players trying to invent a new formats, somewhere on the edge of photo and video. There’s a chance that this will completely erase the different between photo and video as we know it today.
4. A truckload of Android-powered cameras
Smaller manufacturers will find that it’s a lot cheaper to use Android as software and stock components instead of building everything from scratch — firmware, processing logic, hardware and so on. Smaller players and entry-level cameras will concede to Android first, but in just a few years a chunk of market will be Android-powered.
Android will also probably focus on this market and will release dedicated Camera version of it’s OS, mimicking the success with Android One, a OS focused on less powerful phones in emerging markets.
And given that the market is huge, new OS makers will emerge in the next few years — HP, Amazon, Microsoft and a bunch of startups that don’t even exist today.
5. Consumer tools will leapfrog in advances professional tools
What shocks me the most is that we already started to see consumer tools, like VSCOcam and Instagram’s Hyperlapse that match, or even eclipse the professional tools. Creating a hyperlapse with DSLR, and then Photoshop or Premiere is a pain. Some, like Teehan+Lax tried to automate it, others, like Microsoft, tried exploring the “deep learning” behind it. In the mean time, tools available on our phones already produce results faster and less painful than our laptops and desktops do.
Google’s Photo Sphere is yet another pretty specialized app that utilizes a lot of algorithms to create immersive spheric 360 degrees images, something that was possible only with very sophisticated computing just a couple of years ago. This focus on specialized, computing heavy, apps will bring previously unaccessible professional looking results to the masses.
6. Purpose-built cameras
Another big leap will happen in purpose built cameras. Those are action cams or cams for specific needs. As prices drop, we will see $100 action cameras, like Polaroid Cube, cheaper GoPro alternatives, and more specialized cameras for motorcyclists, surfers and kite surfers, and so on. The cost of entering the market is at all time low, with 3D printing and plenty of off-the-shelf parts suppliers offering unique accessories via low-risk markets like Kickstarter or Indiegogo.
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