Possibility Effect

When the highly improbable seems possible

Our ability to vividly imagine an occurrence generally trumps our ability to gauge its likelihood. We are more susceptible to let facts or opinions influence our imagination over statistics.

This is one of the core concepts of behavioural sciences.

Possibility effect stems as a consequence of this concept. A primary example to understand this effect is lottery or any lucky draw. A person vividly imagines the happy winning of the lottery and generally discards the dismal likelihood of that win.

Subtle examples can be drawn from our experiences as well. Reading about a bus accident between your frequent destinations will lead us to look for other transportation modes.

Yay or Nay

Possibility effect is helpful in certain cases but detrimental in others.

An event of sexual assault in your neighbourhood makes you more cautious. You imagine yourself or someone else you know going through such a thing. And try to take precautionary steps to avoid it.

Sometimes though we take it to the extreme. We go to an unnecessary extent to ensure that possibility of an event is mitigated. Decline in passenger demand after 9/11 caused airlines to go declare bankruptcy. Even though, the possibility of recurrence of such an event was infinitesimal.

Framing a possibility

Recently, there was an outbreak of the fatal Napa virus in Kerala (India).

The estimated probability of Napa Virus fatally affecting you while travelling to Kerala is less than 0.0001%. Now that’s seemingly improbable.

Whereas, a news headline reads 12 people succumbed to the virus.

The assumption here is that you reside outside Kerala. If you had to attend a wedding at Cochin in Kerala two weeks after you read this headline, what would you do? Would you go? Or maybe not? Post your answer here.

The last example on framing was based out of my personal experience with possibility effect :).

In my next post I will try to talk about the spouse of this effect, certainty effect.