Bro 5 watch out for TIBRIX!
HK, September 9, 2018 at 09.00 UTC
The FOMO 3D gambling dapp is in its 2nd round, the first round was won by legend “Brother 5” There are many good articles which explains how he got to win this 10,470 ETH
Its technique looks like the ones which were used for “banging the close” in futures. In this case overload the network, so no one gets to buy a new key.
When attack again?
More interesting is, can we predict when Bro 5 will attack again and tries to win the jackpot? First of all the surprise element in its attack is gone. A lot of analyses has been done on blocks 6191896–6191908
We think Bro 5 is very clever and a conservative player. He did not take much risk to win the jackpot. Once time in the FOMO 3 game was ticking away in its favor and still no new keys were bought, he accelerated and got more aggressive in defending its prize. He only got to spent around 22 ETH for wining 10,469.66 ETH. Great return!
The 22 ETH he spent of course was just his final attack, most time, effort and costs must have been the careful monitoring, planning and automating his strategy.
As the jackpot of round 2 FOMO 3D game already reached 6,785 ETH things get interesting. Now we all know Bro 5 techniques, we can be sure that others will copy it.
Game theory for 2 players
Bro 5 is out there and probably monitoring the FOMO 3D game, realizing that others are getting ready as well.
TIBRIX is also monitoring and planning to take this prey home. TIBRIX cost for developing the smart contracts, which will use a lot of gas limit and automate the attack for sending transactions with high gas prices in a specific time frame, cost around 10,000 USD (around 50 ETH)
Bro 5 sunk costs have been made, so no extra costs, when he attacks again, he only need to cover its cost in the attack (Tx fee to take full blocks) In its first attack his threshold (remaining time in the FOMO 3D game) was probably around 150 seconds, defending 11 blocks, not including its primary block which holds the winning key.
TIBRIX is a rational, conservative and risk neutral startup, who will strike when expected (profit) outcome from this project is at least zero. TIBRIX assumes there will not be any round 3, as players will lose fun and be aware of this opportunity. TIBRIX algo for taking a block and using up the full 8,000,000 gas limit will increase gas price by 50% per block, starting with a gas price of 125 Gwei in the first block.
So if TIBRIX wants to take up 11 blocks it need to spend around 171 ETH. With the 50 ETH developing costs and probability of 30% to succeed, the expected payout:
-171 ETH -50 ETH + 0.3*6,785 ETH= 1814.5 ETH
Now we all, including Bro 5, can calculate when TIBRIX will strike!
The views, assumptions and opinions expressed in this article are solely those from TIBRIX LTD. We make no representations as to accuracy, completeness, suitability or validity of any information in this article and will not be liable for any errors, omissions in this information or any losses, injuries or damages from its display or use. TIBRIX does not tend to involve with the FOMO 3D game, it is all fiction.