The running of the 142nd Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs — AKA the fastest two minutes in sports — will whip a predicted record crowd into a mint-julep-infused frenzy on Saturday. Oddsmakers have made Nyquist the favorite, at 3-to-1. The colt, who’s won all seven of his starts, pulled the No. 13 post position.
The racing world is watching these numbers closely. But the favorites often don’t win the Run for the Roses, and numbers don’t forecast everything. At the heart of the race is a young, relatively inexperienced animal — and that can throw all kinds of wrenches into the equation.
What it takes to win:
Fastest winning time: 1:59 ⅖, Secretariat, 1973*
Slowest winning time: 2:52 ¼, Kingman, 1891
2015 winning time: 2:03.02, American Pharaoh
One century earlier, winning time: 2:05 ⅖ , Regret
*Secretariat still holds the 1 ¼-mile track record at Churchill Downs
Have thoroughbreds gotten faster?
Since 1950 — the beginning of the modern-era of racing and athletics — winning times for horses in elite races, including the Derby, have improved by 4%. Thanks to improved nutrition and technology, winning times for men in elite mile-long races over the same period have improved 12 to 13%.
Chances that the favorite will win:
-In 141 Kentucky Derbies, the favorite has won 49 times, or about 35%.
- From 1979 to 2000, the favorite horse didn’t claim the win once.
- Of the 12 horses that went on to win the Triple Crown, eight went into the Derby as favorites.
- 21 horses have won the Derby and the Preakness, but not the Belmont. Six of those came second in the Belmont.
- In 1978, Alydar was the favorite going into the Derby, but lost to Affirmed, who went on to win the Preakness and the Belmont, where Alydar came in second, by decreasing margins, both times. Alydar is the only horse to come in second place in all three Triple Crown races.
Runaways:
Four horses are tied for biggest margin of victory at 8 lengths:
Old Rosebud, 1914
Johnstown, 1939
Whirlaway, 1941
Assault, 1946
Most winning pole position since 1930:
No. 10 has had 9 winners
No. 17 has never produced a winner*.
*American Pharaoh was slotted for the No. 17 position, but was moved to 16 because of a scratch. This year’s favorite, Nyquist, drew the No. 13 post.
Field sizes:
Smallest field: 3 in 1892 and 1905
Largest field: 23 in 1974
First field: 15 in 1875
Average field size: 13*
Average field size since 1990: 19.4
*20 is the maximum field as of 1975.
Are jockeys getting bigger?
Average jockey size increase since the Derby’s beginning: 8%
Average jockey weight today: 112 pounds
Are spectators getting bigger?
Average size increase for North American males since that same time: 25–30%
Average American male weight today: 195.5 pounds
Crowd sizes:
2015: 170,513. (The biggest ever.)
2005: 156,435
1995: 144,110
1985: 108,573
1975 was the most watched Derby ever, with 26.8 million television viewers. Television viewership hasn’t topped 20 million since 1983.
Breeders have eased off the frenzy of the mid 1980s:
US foal crop at first publication of The American Stud Book in 1868: 3,000
US foal crop at its peak in 1986: 51,293
US foal crop in 2015: 20,300*
*Estimated
How The Last Four Triple Crown Winners Measure Up:
(One hand = 4 inches)
American Pharaoh (2015)
Height: 16.1 hands
Weight: 1,170
Girth: 71
Affirmed (1978)
Height: 16.1 hands
Weight: 1,000 pounds
Girth: 74 1/2 inches
Seattle Slew (1977)
Height: 16.0 hands
Weight: 1,120 pounds
Girth: 76 inches
Secretariat
Height: 16.2 hands
Weight: 1,199 pounds
Girth: 76 inches
Shortest Derby winner: Mine That Bird, 15 hands
Average size of thoroughbred racehorse: 16.1 hands
