Prigozhin: Let my people go
Sometimes it helps to change your view.
I wrote a small article about the Prigozhin incident some days ago, thinking it would play out in the coming days if not weeks. 24 hours later everything was over. And in an almost cordial way. While everybody ist talking about an insurrection I am not so sure anymore. Let me explain:
Power play
What did Prigozhin try to achieve? If this was a power grab, then it was almost comically bad and he achieved nothing but kicking himself out of the game.
But what if moving Wagner out of Russia was the main goal all along? As I explained in a previous article, the fact that Wagner and the russian army are at odds is not a mistake, but part of the forced fragmentation of russian military power. But in recent months the balance between those powers began to break down. The army got the upper hand and started to absorb Wagner. Without replenishments it would soon be forced to disband.
Mercenaries
Look at things from a personal perspective:
There is a fundamental difference between a soldier and a mercenary: the latter one assesses risk and gain and chooses to engage. This comes with the power to demand more and better arms, and a certain aversion to high risk situations, or level chances. If somebody joined Wagner, he expected a risky job with a very good chance of survival.
Here comes the russian army effectively forcing Wagner soldiers to contract with them or go home. Going home means of course being a civilian and getting drafted on the spot. Anyway it turns the mercenary more or less to a normal soldier with less pay and much higher risks.
Prigozhin and his soldiers sit on the same boat. His army gets dismantled, they get in a far worse position than before. And so he and his troops join to force another solution: leaving the country. This was not an insurrection- it was a strike. They showed the havoc the could bring on the country and they did so at a time where the russian army was at its weakest. Once this was done, there was no reason to follow through. They gave their demands and Putin caved in.
The best of bad outcomes
The whole affair did a lot of damage to Putins reputation, but might be the best outcome he was able to get. Wagner is still alive and able to project force outside of Russia. By decree Wagner soldiers cannot be recruited by the military. Lukashenko got an additional army that can keep him in power. And Prigozhin has been cut down, but is still able to participate in the game.
What comes next? My guess: The army will try to raid the national guard and paramilitary police forces for ammunition and vehicles and personnel , effectively reducing their power. This will leave the FSB as Putin’s only reliable partner. He might try to clean the ranks of the army but it could already be too late for that. But thats all speculation on my part.
