Prigozhin read the Dictator’s Handbook
Whatever the outcome: Putin was dealt a heavy blow.
For some time I wanted to write a small piece about the current situation in Russia in the perspective of the Dictator’s Handbook. The basic assumption of the authors is that Leaders do whatever keeps them in power. On this basis they elucidate how the premise forces them to be brutal and suppressive, even if they started out with the best intentions. If you are not into reading: CGP Grey summarized the book in a fantastic Youtube video.
In the way of the handbook, Prigozhin’s role is clear: he is one one the stakeholders who keep Putin in power. More specifically, he is a part of the fragmenation of military force. No dictator can leave the military in one hand, it is too much power. So there is the army, national guards, military police forces and of course mercenaries. All infiltrated by the FSB. This is save, but also very inefficient. Too inefficient for the current war. So power was concentrated onto two players: the army and Wagner.
In a way it doesn’t matter who started the spat. Prigozhin states that Shoigu ordered the attack on him. That might be true, it might be just pretext. Fact is: both were by design set up to go for each other. The lack of ammunition, the access to prisoners, the claim to success or failure on presitigous tasks. All were basic actions meant to balance power and keep both parties from uniting. But there was always the risk, that one of the players rocks the table and that is happening now. While the army is in a relatively strong position, Prigozhin is not. It is clear, that he became too visible, too popular and too powerful to be kept around after the war. The deconstruction of Wagner was only a matter of time. But he is still needed now and so he is still powerful.
There are several outcomes at the moment. Prigozhin might win in several ways, starting from an appeasement by Putin, right down to hunting down and killing Shoigu. On the other hand Shoigu and the FSB have every right to destroy Wagner completely and could do so by force. But the effect will always be the same:
This is bad
— This event will reduce the number of active Putin supporters one way or the other, making him more dependent on the remaining staff.
— Whatever the outcome: Putin did not have the control. He was unable to keep the balance and now he looks weak. This puts doubt in the bystanding actors whether Putin can fullfill his obligations.
— He is already behind payments. The cost of the war, the embargos, the weak international position: All cut into the income of important stakeholders. Putin tried to give an IOU by promising industries, official positions and land in the occupied regions, as Prigozhin himself stated, but these turned out to be rather worthless. The war proved to be far more destructive than he imagined.
— If he cannot create a new balance, he will end up as the sockpuppet of the winner. Someone has to be the scapegoat for the outcome of the war and nobody wants to sit on the presidents chair until the scapegoat has be sacrified.
— From an international perspective things got worse. With a strong person in power there is someone to talk to and keep in check. Once things get muddy, the influence of outside parties drop to zero. Both the US and China can only stand by and watch until a new leader emerges.
—The new leader need to make new promises to those that keep him in power. But coffers are empty. Which is in turn destabilizing. Don’t expect things to get better.
