China and its need to produce 5th Generation Fighter Jets
Regional disputes and long term ambitions may result in China becoming the biggest operator of stealth aircraft by 2030.
Since the dawn of the jet age in the late 1940s history of military aviation has mainly witnessed few names emerge as big players. Though the USA, Russia, and France have seen a long run as leaders in the fighter jet domain the world is now witnessing many new countries enter the race.
If we glance at the global military aviation industry today, we see new nations which have historically been reliant on American, Russian and European jets. China, South Korea, Türkiye and India are developing their 5th generation jets with China already flying them and the rest catching up in 5 to 10 years.
Developing a fighter aircraft is not an easy task and a 5th generation fighter is no piece of cake. Indigenous in spirit, yet some aspects of these programs trace back to the big Western names to some degree, whether it’s the collaboration of systems and subsystems or industrial espionage the truth is that these countries are keen on becoming self-reliant in creating an aviation industry capable of sustaining their defence requirements per future challenges.
Out of all of these new countries, only the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force PLAAF has been successful in inducting 5th generation fighter jets at the squadron level. Sneaking into enemy territory or ambushing enemy jets undetected the allure of stealth lures these countries to push their defensive industrial complex to fast track into building these complex machines. Let’s look at the geopolitical situation and fighter jet numbers which led to push China towards 5th generation fighters.
Relations with Japan
Unsettled colonial history and territorial tensions between China and Japan have always been a hotbed of escalation waiting to happen. Japan’s refusal to acknowledge its world war crimes to Chinese satisfaction and China’s expansion plans into the South China Sea resulted in a heavily contested airspace between the two countries.
Japan Air Self-Defense Force JSDF operates, F-15 and F-2 (Japanese derivative of F-16, essentially a new plane developed by Mitsubishi) fighter jets.
It has also acquired the most advanced fifth-generation fighter jet on the market F-35 A/B variants.
Japan started working on its own domestic 5th gen Fighter program Mitsubishi X-2 Shinshin, its development progress was used as a case study for the development of 6th generation variant. The country has opted to collaborate instead and is now the newest member of the British-led 6th generation fighter jet “Tempest” program.
Relations with India
Starting in the 1960s China and India have been in numerous clashes resulting in several casualties. The most recent incident happened in 2020 when tensions reached a boiling point in the Ladakh region resulting in the deaths of 40 Indian and an unspecified number of Chinese soldiers.
Out of its 14 neighbouring countries, China faces its biggest economic and territorial challenges from India. In 2023 India topped the list as the leading arms importer (SPIRI Fact Sheet, p. 9) with a 9.8 per cent share of all global arms imports with Russia as its major supplier.
Indian Air Force IAF fighter jet tally includes the Indian Su-30 variant Su-30MKI, Mig-29, Mirage 2000, HAL Tejas, Mig-21 and Dassault Rafale.
India was a joint partner with Russia in developing a 5th generation fighter T-50 which eventually became Su-57 from 2007 till 2018 when it decided to leave the program. The main reason for opting out was Russia’s reluctance in the transfer of technology TOT.
India has been working on its 5th generation single-seat, twin-engine, all-weather fighter AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft) from 2019 which is slated to be in service by 2032.
The Taiwan Scenario
China has always seen Taiwan as a breakaway territory. Beijing repeatedly states that it will take this rogue province back one day, no matter how much force it requires. Located just 100 miles from the southeastern coast of China, Taiwan is recognized by just 12 countries (including The Vatican). The USA is the biggest and strongest ally of Taiwan and has announced to help it militarily in case of a Chinese invasion.
Taiwan operates Mirage 2000, F-CK-1, F-5 and F-16’s. USA is upgrading Taiwanese F-16’s to F-16V (Block 70–72) standard which is the latest and most advanced version of F-16 till now.
South China Sea Expansion and USA Presence
China is claiming parts of the South China Sea by creating artificial islands. It aims to lay its hands on 190 trillion cubic feet of untapped natural gas 11 billion barrels of untapped oil. It is also constructing ports, military installations, and airstrips. This is seen as a clear threat by the East Asian and Oceanic nations and has triggered the continuous presence of US aircraft carriers in these seas. These aircraft carriers are equipped with the latest 5th-generation F-35C jets. The region also sees extensive F-35 presence as it is flown by Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia.
If diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation bear no fruit the failure could result in dire consequences for the region in the form of armed conflict.
The Chinese Answer
The biggest economy in Asia and soon the whole world China has emerged as the most successful player to oppose the United States, Russia and France in defence exports (SIPRI Fact Sheet, p. 2).
People’s Liberation Army Air Force PLAAF consists of reverse-engineered derivatives of Russian Flankers J-11, J-15, J-16 and the exported version of Su-35, and the Chinese version of Mig-21 called J-7.
China indigenously developed the fourth generation J-10 Vigorous Dragon (claimed by many to be a copy of Israeli Levi) which is now a 4++ generation aircraft complete with AESA radar and long-range BVR missiles like PL-15.
China shocked the world in 2017 by inducting its first heavy-weight 5th generation jet J-20 Mighty Dragon in service. It is also developing another medium weight fifth generation fighter the J-35 Gyrfalcon which is expected to be flown from its aircraft carriers Liaoning & Shandong.
By now more than 208 J-20 jets have been manufactured. Experts predict that China aims to produce around 1000 J-20’s by the early 2030’s. With the development of the Naval J-35 and an undisclosed 6th generation jet in progress, China is set to dominate the skies with its neighbours flying these force multipliers.
