We are mind readers
I know what you think: mind reading doesn’t exist. In a strict sense, you are right. Playing poker is a real challenge, no player can tell if her opponent holds a Jack of Spades or not. In practice, she doesn’t need such a precision. All she wants to know is if he has a full house which would be a stronger hand than hers, or if he’s stuck with two pairs waiting for a Jack of any color. She has no direct way to figure it out, apart from cheating. But if she’s an expert, clues will tell her an intricate story. The amount her opponent bets, the time it takes him to make a bet, (even a few seconds of hesitation counts), or the way he pushes the chips across the table. These signs, irrelevant in isolation, add up.
Oh, and don’t forget the face which is not always as detached as the man behind thinks it to be. We have 43 individual facial muscles, some of them so individual we can’t move them deliberately. They are beyond conscious control. A professional player learns to control them, like all other aspects of the game. One second delay in betting can be a sign of a weak hand and uncertainty to raise the stakes. Or it can be intentional. You have a winning combination, but you show weakness so as not to scare off your opponent. You not only want to read his mind but manipulate it, you try to make him think and act a certain way. He would think and act differently if he knew your real thoughts. You’d better hide them.
I’m describing poker as a skill game but it’s played in casinos alongside blackjack and roulette. The cards are shuffled, the hand you get depends on chance. We hear of amateurs winning the World Series of Poker, the most prestigious event. They beat professionals who make a living by taking home huge prizes from similar tournaments.
A journalist asked a pro about the odds of him vs an amateur. He replied it’s fifty-fifty if they play a game or two. The outcome depends on the hands they are dealt. If they play an hour, he will come in first most of the time. The longer the game, the bigger the role of skills. The World Series of Poker was won by amateurs three times in twenty years, and seventeen times by pros.
Poker is popular because we play similar mind games all the time. I want to ask a favor of the lady next door. She may find me too pushy or demanding. I enter into an innocent conversation with her about her grandson and his broken leg (a detail I overheard a week ago). My goal is to gauge her willingness. And to gain some informal credits. “I listen to your boring stories about little Jonathan, you’ll do something for me in return.”
My questions make her wonder (even suspicious if I’m too heave-handed). “Why is this guy suddenly so curious? What might be his agenda?” She’s trying to read my mind too as I’m doing the same to her. I tend to think we’re better at mind reading than speaking our minds.
