Could the pandemic reverse rural-to-urban migration trends? Faced with long term uncertainties and the inconvenience of having to avoid crowding, city slickers seem to be once again turning to the suburbs.
Changing circumstances
We’re still relatively in the early stages of quarantining, but already people are getting used to social distancing behaviours. Once seen as a powerful attribute of cities, the high population density of cities like Toronto is now becoming synonymous with inconvenient crowds.
All the amenities associated with major urban areas are now closed, but rent prices and maintenance fees continue to stay the same or worse, may even threaten to rise. Waiting in line for elevators due to social distancing measures has worn off as a novel peculiarity to living with COVID-19, but rather, is now part of a growing number of obstacles for people in urban areas. And condo residents are now finding their once efficient and minimalist homes to be tight quarters that cannot be adapted to work from home arrangements, especially if they have to share those spaces with roommates or partners in similar arrangements. Worse, short-term rentals seem to be persisting, constantly feeding the anxieties for residents.
Perhaps it’s unsurprising then, to learn from realtors like Tom Storey, a Royal LePage realtor. “It seems everyone wants a house right now,” Tom says, “and there’s a good amount of people willing to leave the city.” Faced with the possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 and another lockdown, urban residents are looking for better living arrangements that can allow them to adapt to life during a pandemic. Requests for realtors now seem to be for outdoor space, fenced-in yards, larger spaces, as well as separate or multilevel spaces for video conferences and calls.
The Pembina Institute found in a survey that 44% of respondents prefer to live in places where they could afford a larger home, even when the home was not ideally located. And this year’s Toronto Real Estate Board’s Market Year in Review & Outlook Report finds that the most popular home type for intending buyers remains the detached house.
But before making the decision to move out of the city, consider the pros and cons of doing something this significant.
Pros for moving out of the city
The most obvious reason to move out of such a densely populated and expensive city like Toronto is for more space, both indoors and outdoors. You could convert the price you’re paying for a one-bedroom condo in downtown Toronto for a spacious townhouse or even a multi-storied house. Yard space would be a given, making it a lot more convenient to keep a pet at home. Backyard barbeques and small gatherings on the lawn might even be a possibility despite lockdown measures.
Daily living costs would likely go down, especially for people who prefer to dine out. As land value goes down, so does pretty much everything else — parking, gas fill ups, and even surge costs for Uber or Lyft are less of a worry.
You’ll be happy to stop hearing sirens, honking, drunk people shenanigans, or even unexpected fire alarms going off at night. Instead, listen for children playing, the rustle of the wind in the trees, and the most annoying noise to complain about may be the birds chirping early in the morning.
And most importantly, you will likely bump into people a lot less, thus lowering the risk of contracting the virus. Even a duplex or triplex has separate entrances and walkways so you won’t have to touch the same door handles or elevator buttons as hundreds of other people.
Cons for moving out of the city
Of course, not everyone can fathom permanently relocating to the suburbs. For most young folks, moving out and leaving the banality of suburbia was the dream. Even more important to consider is whether you want to make such a drastic and path altering decision in face of a potentially not-so-long term uncertainty.
The greatest inconvenience city slickers will face when moving out of the city is that they will be car dependent. Although suburban areas in Toronto are still connected by public transit, this may not be the case for other cities and towns, and even if there are options, they will still not be as frequent and efficient as living near the city core.
Even walking to the store to pick up a snack will likely no longer be a possibility, and getting home to realize you forgot a key grocery item for dinner will likely mean another 10 minute drive to the supermarket, plus another 10 minute drive back home. You’ll not likely find any properties with high walkability scores out in the sticks. That will also mean less nightlife, festivals, and all the other social amenities that the pandemic gutted from the cities, but at least those things might come back to urban areas once lockdown measures lessen.
Though your commute may be less crowded, a new hurdle might be gridlocked traffic, and you may find that switching the risk of being among crowds in a subway might not be so different than risking being jammed up on your way home on the highway. The CMHC Report published in 2018 found that the fastest growing segment of the commuter population was among those who commuted one-way for 60 minutes or more. That amounts to one additional workday per week for the typical worker!
Lower living costs that come from living outside the city might therefore even be nulled by the increased costs coming from car fees — i.e. insurance, maintenance fees, lease payments etc. The savings in housing costs from moving to the suburbs may become less apparent once you start to estimate the cost of commuting from the suburbs to your job in the city. Of course, you might start off working from home most of the time, but you need to ask whether your employers will be willing to allow you to persist to stay home once the pandemic is over.
And assuming you were living in a downtown condo, now that you have moved up to a freehold in the suburbs, will you be quite happy to take charge in doing your own property maintenance? People often take for granted the snow removal and lawn care that happens for their buildings. Moreover, there will be new worries associated with your detached house — eg. foundation, driveaway, and fence repairs.
One thing for sure in a time of uncertainty is to never make impromptu decisions or to make a purchase on a whim. Of course, no one can predict where COVID-19 will take us in the next year or even more, but it’s important to consider all your options before trying to attempt to fix everything with something as totalizing as relocation.
