The Coming Jobs Surplus

The news is littered with predictions of anywhere from 5 million to 73 million to 800 million jobs being lost to automation over the next few decades. There are also reports that suggest 21 million new jobs could be created by automation. Talk about a disparity!

So, we decided to put all that aside and look at the question from a different angle.

The Baby Boomer generation is rapidly retiring; 10,000 a people every day by some accounts. As of 2016, they made up 25% of the workforce, however, this was also the same time when they no longer made up the largest percentage of the U.S. workforce. They are shrinking fast as a group. It got us thinking about the idea that Baby Boomers are leaving the workforce too quickly for the rest of us to take their place, and automation may be what fills in the gap.

Too Many Jobs. Not Enough People.

There were 70 million Baby Boomers, compared to 57 million Gen X-ers, 62 million Millennials, and 61 million Gen Z-ers in 2016. As the Baby Boomers continue to exit the workforce, Gen Z-ers are stepping in to replace them. By the end of this cycle, there will be 9 million less workers. Assuming that the number of new jobs created will roughly equal to those lost to automation, there will be a huge surplus.

From an employer’s perspective, 9 million less available workers can be a terrifying thought. If employers today are having a hard time finding talent, and an enormous portion of the workforce is leaving, the thought of where business is headed might be a source of concern.

Automation to the Rescue

We frequently see headlines like,”Will Robots Take Your Job? Humans Ignore the Coming AI Revolution at Their Peril.” While there is some truth here, we would like to propose a different theory. Maybe, the very automation that is threatening to kill jobs will be the very thing that will help resolve the coming job surplus.

As companies increasingly leverage automation to perform certain functions, roles will definitely disappear. The working age population is also going to decrease, so, we predict that the two will cancel each other out. As a result, the dystopian future that the media thinks we need to fear will be avoided. Simply put, automation will balance everything out.

What do you think? Join in on the conversation via the comments section below or chat with us via @Tonkean on Twitter.