You Might Never Own a Quantum Computer — Here’s why.

My fascination with quantum computers began in my early childhood, however, whenever I tried to understand the working mechanisms behind them, I was humbled by my abilities. Unlike classical computers that work using transistors and current electricity, quantum computers utilize the baffling, mysterious, and unexplored science of quantum mechanics; only the most talented of people around the world are able to fully comprehend it.

Despite that, I have tried to illustrate my humble opinion in this article, taking into account the physical limitations of this technology and the current trends. The more I study the subject, the more convinced I am that unlike our personal computers, quantum computers may never make it to our personal devices, at least in our lifetimes.

The historical backdrop

In 1980, Paul Benioff’s paper describing mechanical model of a quantum computer was published and the next year, Richard Feynman gave a talk at MIT where he explained that classical computing systems cannot simulate or scale quantum computing efficiently. These events sparked a race to create quantum systems that continues today, 40 years later.

The 1990s were critical in the development of quantum computers. The first algorithms that were drastically superior than classical computers were made and in 1998, the first quantum computer was built using 2 qubits.

In 2017, IBM launched the world’s first commercially viable quantum computer called the ‘IBM Q System’. It is imperative to note that this computer is based off 20 qubits and is nowhere near as powerful as most commercial demands, but it is a first step towards widespread adaption. The physical size of the computer is also quite huge — almost as big as large industrial electricity generators.

The physical limitations

The biggest problem right now for quantum computers is the demanding list of conditions required to be met in order to be able to compute even the most basic of problems without major error corrections. The system needs to be frozen to sub-zero temperatures, be free of any sort of vibrations, sound, and light, and needs to be fed huge amounts of electricity. To develop a technology to work is one thing, making it commercially viable for mass production is a different ball game. Unless a breakthrough in cooling solutions is achieved in a cost effective manner, it will be difficult to envision a future with a quantum computer at our desk.

The shift to Cloud

Most of the businesses have shifted some part of their business to cloud and the 2020s will accelerate this trend even more. This movement has given rise to phenomenon such as decentralized cloud compute services. For example, Artificial Intelligence Engineers and Data Scientists today can delegate complex and large AI computations to Google Cloud, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and many other platforms.

Many people agree that this could mean that only the most complex computations will be done by Quantum computing in similar ways. We will use transistor based devices in our hands and on our desks that will tap into the extra power of quantum seamlessly when we demand it.

The Security Implications

The leap to quantum computing is so drastic that it will break some of our most sophisticated cyber-security systems and algorithms within minutes. Therefore, I believe that quantum computing will be highly regulated for some time in the coming years, since there are severe security implications of the technology falls in the wrong hands. Unless cyber security solutions can scale up to meet the challenges of the age of quantum computing, we will continue to use transistor based devices.

Conclusion

The ability that makes humans the apex predator on our planet is being able to work together and solve complex problems. The challenges, trends, and implications highlighted above may paint a grim picture for the future of quantum computing, but with so many talented minds working day and night to make this breakthrough, I believe that we can solve most problems. What remains to be seen is whether it will be feasible and safe to build a future where every home has a quantum computer.