2020 NHL Playoff Preview: Calgary Flames vs. Winnipeg Jets
When the NHL season was canceled in March there was uncertainty about how many teams would play in the playoffs, and who would play who, assuming the traditional format would not be taking place. Despite this, hockey fans could all agree that we wanted to see a Battle of Alberta playoff series. Although with the playoff format of 24 teams, this matchup cannot take place until the second round, we have still been given a great Canadien matchup. A lot of people were disappointed when the hockey world was told that the Calgary Flames would be taking on the Winnipeg Jets in the qualifying round instead of the Edmonton Oilers, but I think many are looking past how good of a series this is going to be. These teams battled in the outdoor Heritage Classic this winter, where some bad blood was certainly exchanged, even if it didn’t quite match the intensity of the games between the Flames and Oilers. Aside from the fact that Winnipeg and Calgary played some incredibly exciting games this year, they are the closest in the standings out of any of the teams playing in the qualifying matchups. The Calgary Flames placed into the eighth seed in the Western Conference with a record of 36–27–7, adding up to 79 points. The Jets finished the shortened season in the ninth Western Conference seed with a record of 37–28–6, adding up to 80 points. The only reason the Flames are ahead of the Jets is that they played one less game, giving them a just slightly better winning percentage of .564, compare to the Jets’ .563 winning percentage. This is one of the most debated qualifying matchups that will be played this summer, and it is going to come down to the wire. When looking deep into each teams’ stats and identity, there is one that comes out on top though, so I hope to make things easier when contemplating this matchup.
Winnipeg Jets Have the Better Stat Sheet
When it comes down to goals against and goals for, the Jets come out on top, and there is no way around it. The Jets scored an average of 3.00 goals per game flat, outdoing the 2.91 goals per game scored by the Flames this year. The Jets also only let in an average of 2.83 goals against this season, significantly less than the average 3.06 goals against this year for Calgary. So if the Jets come out on top in terms of basic stats this should be pretty simple, right? Certainly not. The whole year the Flames have been about more than just goals for and against, and although those stats on the baseline wins games, Calgary plays a very specific style that can wear down opponents, taking numbers out of the equation.
Calgary Flames Power Play Could do Damage
This season, the Calgary Flames finished with the number 12 power play in the NHL, with a 21.2 percent conversion rate. This was slightly better than Winnipeg’s number 15 power play, with a percentage of 20.5. The penalty kill side of things is much more lopsided. Calgary finished with an eighth best penalty kill, at 82.1 percent. The Jets, on the other hand, finished with the number 22 penalty kill, only coming out 77.6 percent of the time without any damage being done. When you combine a good power play possessing some serious offensive firepower with a subpar penalty kill, bad things happen. The good news for the Jets is, on average, they are penalized the eighth-least in the NHL, averaging 7.4 penalty minutes per game. This means that even though the Flames have the advantage on the power play, if Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and Monahan, don’t get many chances to execute, this discrepancy could be insignificant.
Calgary Flames Bring an Abundance of Emotion and Physicality
The reason the Flames aren’t a numbers team when it comes to their play is that they have arguably the greatest depth when it comes to physical play, and the overall ability to wear down opponents. Tkachuk, Andersson, and Lucic, are key pieces when it comes to the annoyance of opponents. Specifically, Tkachuk is a key player to keep an eye on, as he is able to do what few players in the history of the league are able to. Tkachuk can force opponents into penalties by walking the fine line between irritation and a trip to the box, putting Calgary's solid power play to work. After Tkachuk does this, his job isn’t over. He goes right back on the ice for the man-advantage, and he is able to convert, putting up 61 points this year. Once again, what would look to be an advantage for Calgary, is canceled out by the Jets’ ability to stay disciplined. One thing that does go the way of the Flames is how emotions change in playoff scenarios. Just because the Jets were able to stay out of the box this season, doesn’t mean they can’t still get into trouble with penalties when their season is on the line.
Connor Hellebuyck can Backstop Jets if Things go South
There is no doubt that Connor Hellebuyck will be a favorite for the Vezina Trophy this season. The 27-year-old goaltender had an incredible year, posting a .922 save percentage in 58 games. Calgary also saw good goaltending this season, but not at the level that was seen in Winnipeg. David Rittich, the likely starter for the Flames, recorded a .907 save percentage, and Cam Talbot had a surprisingly good year, a .919 save percentage, albeit only playing 26 games. For the Jets, Hellebuyck is going to be vital in winning this series. Even if Calgary deserves to win the series, they may not if Hellebuyck can steal a few games, which we saw him repeatedly do this year for the Jets. Hellebuyck is especially dangerous in the five-game format for the qualifying round, rather than the traditional seven. It’s possible that the Jets could play horrible and Hellebuyck could win three games on his own, pushing the Jets to the first round of the playoffs. On the other hand, Hellebuyck being at the core of the Jets team this year could also be a bad thing. If he goes down and doesn’t play how he did during the season, it could affect the rest of the team, as he was one constant for Winnipeg this season. Although not likely, it is possible. The break between the end of the season and the qualifying rounds could really hurt Hellebuyck. When a goalie in the NHL is hot, it is partly about confidence. If Hellebuyck doesn’t come back from the lengthy break with the same emotion that he played with when the season was ending, his whole game could go out the window. Even if this happens, I still think Winnipeg outdoes the Flames when it comes to goaltending.
To Summarize: Who has the Offensive Edge?
Winnipeg Jets. The Jets have a ton of pieces upfront that can come together to form a beast of an offense. Connor, Scheifele, Wheeler, and Laine, all had great seasons, and if they can keep things going in the playoffs, the Jets will be hard to stop from scoring.
To Summarize: Who has the Defensive Edge?
Calgary Flames. Although in terms of numbers the advantage goes to the Jets, the passion that Calgary plays with makes them the better team. Their defensive core isn’t bad, and they likely underperformed this season, so things could come together in the playoffs. Besides, Calgary’s defense is very offensively minded so they could compensate their average play in their own end by feeding their top forwards.
To Summarize: Who has the Goaltending Edge?
Winnipeg Jets. There’s no contest here. Connor Hellebuyck was remarkable in goal this year, and even though it is possible that he doesn’t play as well in the postseason, I think he will keep things up. In his five-year career, he has only gone on one true playoff run, and the Jets have a roster that could go deep this year, so I think Hellebuyck will do everything in his power to help his team get to play for the Stanley Cup.
My Pick: Winnipeg Jets
The Jets have been a team that has been improving and developing for a long time, and I think it is a year where they can do something big in the playoffs. Their offense is extremely powerful, and although their defense isn’t the best in the league, goaltending more than makes up for it. The Flames are a team that, in my opinion, has been overrated the last few times around. The Avalanche proved to everyone last year that the Flames weren’t as incredible as people made them seem, and they had an even worse year this season. The Flames are supposed to be a good team upfront, and they didn’t have a single point-per-game player this year, as Gaudreau underperformed. Although they could win this series on fire alone, I don’t think the Jets will get distracted in a year where they could do great things.
