2020 NHL Playoff Preview: Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Rangers
With two of the youngest and offensive teams in the league, the qualifying matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New York Rangers will be an exciting one. The Carolina Hurricanes took the number six seed in the Eastern Conference this season with a record of 38–25–5, converting to a .596 winning percentage. The Rangers were able to find their way into the eleventh seed with a record of 37–28–5, a winning percentage of .564. Despite being the so-called “lower seed,” the Rangers are still considered the heavy favorite. Although the Rangers and the Hurricanes were five seeds apart, they were only separated by two points by the end of the shortened season. Additionally, New York accumulated a hefty portion of their points in the latter half of the season. Both teams play a very similar style of game that benefits from wide open, back and forth action. The New York Rangers scored an average of 3.33 goals per game, coming in at fifth in the NHL. This was just better than the Hurricanes eleventh-best 3.19 goals per game. Neither team is very defensively minded, but especially the Rangers. The Blueshirts gave up an average of 3.14 goals per game while the Canes only gave up 2.84 goals per game. With how similarly both teams play the game, I hope to be able to shed some light on who is likely to come out on top, advancing to the first round of the playoffs.
Carolina Hurricanes’ Power Play Could be Significant
The Carolina Hurricanes boasted one of the best special teams in the NHL this season. The Canes finished the season with a fourth-best, 84 percent penalty kill, in addition to the eighth-best power play, converting 22.3 percent of the time. The Rangers have a just slightly better power play, as the seventh-best team with a man advantage, scoring 22.9 percent of the time. Where the Rangers really suffer is on the penalty kill. At number 23 in the league, the Rangers have a penalty kill percentage of only 77.4 percent. This is really significant for this series in particular, as the subpar Rangers penalty kill is amplified by the Blueshirts being the most penalized team in the NHL. New York served 781 penalty minutes this season, 11.2 minutes per game. With the Rangers frequently finding themselves in the penalty box, putting their poor penalty kill to work, in combination with the strong Carolina power play, the Canes could see a large number of goals coming on the man advantage. It could be significant enough to be a series changer, so penalties are definitely something the Rangers are going to want to keep an eye on.
Who Starts in Net for the Rangers?
Goaltending is going to be one of the biggest dilemmas for the Rangers going forward. Before thinking about what happens in terms of goalies next season, New York needs to figure out who will start in the playoffs. Out of all the issues a team could have, one might say that this is a “good issue” for the Rangers. One could make the case for any of the three goalies the Rangers could start, but the coaches are going to have to decide to put their trust in one. In terms of numbers, the logical path would be to start Shesterkin. The 24-year-old posted an outstanding .932 save percentage in his first NHL season. The only goalies in the NHL to play better were Stolarz, playing only one game, as well as Driedger, playing the same 12 games that Shesterkin did. The question is if the Rangers staff trusts a young, unexperienced goalie to play well in a playoff scenario. Although one should never count out Lundqvist from the playoffs, he is getting up there in age, and he has been simply too unreliable this season. The King put up a 14-year career-worst .905 save percentage. Despite how good Lundqvist has been in his playoff career, he has not been able to play up to a standard that can be trusted in the playoffs, no matter how badly he wants a Cup. Georgiev is the “safest” choice for the Rangers. He has a good mix of experience and numbers. He played his first games for the Rangers in the 2017–2018 season and has put a .910 save percentage to his name in the 34 games he played this year. I don’t think the Rangers will go “safe” in net. I think they should, and will, start Shesterkin. Even though he is only in his first NHL season, he is the same age as Georgiev and if he doesn’t play exactly the same as he did in the regular season, that’s okay. Even a slightly worse performance out of Shesterkin is still an incredible one. Shesterkin has been described as one of the calmest goalies out there, especially for being in his debut season. The idea that all of a sudden Shesterkin plays poorly in the playoffs because he’s nervous is probably not a valid one. Also, if things really do go downhill for Shesterkin, by having another young goalie, it is possible for Georgiev to take over suddenly and still be able to play well. Having all these options could hold New York back, but if they are able to decide on one goalie who plays well, they will have a serious advantage over Carolina between the pipes. The Canes have two older goalies in Mrazek and Reimer, ages 28 and 32 respectively. Both goalies played mediocre throughout the season posting .905 and .914 save percentages. The Rangers could take advantage of the older goaltending core for Carolina even more, due to the break before the matchup. If the Rangers young offense can turn things on quickly, they will likely be able to net a few early goals on the older Mrazek or Reimer, as they will still be getting back into the swing of things.
Panarin and Zibanejad Could be the Difference Amongst Young Lineups for Hurricanes and Rangers
Both the Hurricanes and Rangers are very similar, as each lineup is heavily dependent on their young core. Aho, Svechnikov, Necas, and Foegele, are all young contributors for the Canes. DeAngelo, Buchnevich, Fox, Chytil, Kakko, and Howden, as the Rangers young stars. The pressure for this qualifying round could have an effect on each of these young groups, especially for the Rangers. Most of the Hurricanes have experience from their playoff run last year, something the Rangers’ players don’t have. If the Rangers fall back because their young players aren’t able to put points on the board or even if they stalemate the equally youthful Hurricanes, that is where Panarin and Zibanejad can step in and shift things in favor of the Rangers. To say the least, Panarin and Zibanejad were incredible for the Blueshirts this year, amongst the league’s best. Panarin put up 95 points in his 65 game campaign this season. Zibanejad had a slightly shorter season due to injury, still putting up 75 points in just 57 games. In terms of points per game, Panarin and Zibanejad came in at number four (1.38 points per game) and number nine (1.32 points per game) amongst all NHL players respectively. Carolina doesn’t have any players close to these numbers, allowing for these two powerhouses to flood the scoresheet in the five-game series versus the Canes.
Rangers Dominated Hurricanes and End of Season
The Blueshirts swept the four-game season series against the Hurricanes this season. In fact, since 2011, the Hurricanes have only managed seven wins out of the 37 meetings between the two teams. When looking down the lineups of the two clubs, this trend is likely to continue throughout the qualifying round. Though Carolina did finish ahead of the Rangers this season, New York was on a tear prior to the sudden end of the season. If they continued at the pace they were going, it is likely that the Rangers would have made the playoffs, despite their poor start to the season. Carolina wasn’t playing badly, but their playoff chances were just as shaky as the Rangers’, so the notion that the Blueshirts should not be in this qualifying round is absurd. Though New York is the heavy favorite in this series, it is going to be crucial for the team to pick up right where they left off. If it takes the Rangers too long to get back to playing how they were when the season ended, and we see the Rangers we saw at the beginning of the season, it is likely Carolina will take over quickly.
Carolina has Proved to be Intimidated by the Rangers
When the NHL proposed the 24 team return-to-play plan, each team voted if they approved or disapproved of the proposal. Out of all 31 teams, there were only two teams that voted “no.” Tampa Bay and Carolina. Tampa Bay absolutely had the right to vote how they did. Going into the break, the Lightning were one of the hottest teams in the league, and out of every franchise they are likely hurt the most. Carolina, on the other hand, had no playoff guarantee and there is no valid reason for them to have voted no. Along with their vote, the Canes proposed what is now known as the “Carolina Plan.” The club suggested two alternatives to the NHL’s plan to return to play. The first was somewhat reasonable, suggesting that there should be some form of finishing the regular season. The second proposal was laughable. The Canes proposed that as the lower seed, the Rangers would have to win four out of the five games to move on to the first round, and they would only have to win two. The NHL, like anyone in their right mind, rejected both proposals. The Hurricanes are clearly scared of quickly being eliminated by the Rangers based on what went on in the season series. To be honest, maybe they should be.
To Summarize: Who has the Offensive Edge?
New York Rangers. This really comes down to who can get their young guys going the fastest. The Rangers win in this category simply because they have Panarin and Zibanejad to back up their younger core if things go south. If both players can pick right back up, the New York offense will be unstoppable and will likely crack the Carolina Hurricanes’ older goaltending swiftly.
To Summarize: Who has the Defensive Edge?
Carolina Hurricanes. Based simply on the numbers, Carolina clearly takes the cake in this category. The Hurricanes allow fewer goals than the Rangers do, and the New York defense can be unreliable at times. Defense might really hurt the Rangers this series, especially if they can’t stay out of the penalty box.
To Summarize: Who has the Goaltending Edge?
New York Rangers. The Rangers can go any way they want here. Young talent, experienced veteran, or a mix of both. If things go badly with their first choice, a quick switch shouldn’t be a problem. Carolina doesn’t have this versatility, and although this focus could give them the edge, their one option hasn’t played the greatest this season.
My Pick: New York Rangers
Although as a Rangers fan I could be a bit biased, the Blueshirts are the heavy favorite in this one. A combination of powerful offense and shutdown goaltending takes a bit of pressure off the mediocre defense for the Rangers. As a young team, the Rangers need to focus on not getting caught up in their own hype, and play similarly to how they did at the end of the regular season. Even with the expectations for this series, the Rangers cannot take the Hurricanes lightly. Although the Rangers dominated the season series, if they get too comfortable, things could go bad fast. Although it may look like there’s a team with the upper hand, a series featuring two similarly young clubs is incredibly unpredictable. This makes the series about being able to adjust quickly, so I think with the adversity the Rangers faced this year, combined with the coaching staff behind the bench, the Rangers will be able to move on to the first round of the playoffs.
