2020 NHL Playoff Preview: Edmonton Oilers vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Only in a year when the NHL season is canceled due to a pandemic, can a team that placed last in their division have a shot at the playoffs. This is the situation that the Chicago Blackhawks have found themselves in, explaining the argument of Oilers fans that the playoff format is unfair. The Oilers finished the season in the number five spot in the Western Conference with a record of 37–25–9, a .585 winning percentage. The Hawks finished the year in seventh place out of seven in the Central division, but was still able to sneak into the extended playoff format, due to the disappointing seasons of all three California teams. Chicago ended the shortened campaign with a record of 32–30–8, a .514 winning percentage. This series may be the most predictable out of any in the qualifying rounds, but no matter what, every team has the possibility to win. The same goes for the Hawks, and I hope to help you understand where Chicago could come out on top, as well as give my prediction for who will advance to the first round of the playoffs.
Edmonton Oilers get Stat Advantage, Especially in Special Teams
As predicted, the Oilers have better stats than the Hawks in every significant category. In terms of goals for and against, the Oilers possess the fourteenth-best average goals per game at 3.14, and the fifteenth-best goals-against per game at 3.03. The Blackhawks finished the season with a fourteenth-worst 2.97 goals per game, and a goals-against just worse than the Oilers at 3.06, seventeenth in the league. Although neither team has the best goals against, the difference is that Edmonton can back it up with their above-average scoring, something that Chicago doesn’t have. Edmonton also dominates special teams. The Oilers had the number one power play this year, at an outstanding 29.5 percent. The last time the NHL saw a power play this good was in the 1978–1979 season when the New York Islanders put together a 31.2 percent power play. This makes the Oilers power play this year the third-best in NHL history, with the Montreal Canadiens taking the number one spot in the 1977–1978 season with a 31.9 percent conversion rate. The Blackhawks had the polar opposite power play this year, with the fourth-worst in the league, a 15.2 percent success rate. Both teams had a pretty solid penalty kill this year, but Edmonton still came out on top. The Oilers finished the shortened season with the number two penalty kill at 84.4 percent while the Blackhawks finished at number nine with an 82.1 percent kill. Despite Chicago having a decent penalty kill, the Oilers power play will be dangerous no matter what, so an already uphill battle for the Hawks will become even harder if they can’t stay out of the box.
Uncertainty in Net for the Chicago Blackhawks
Blackhawks fans have started panicking recently with the news that star goalie Corey Crawford, who has won numerous Stanley Cups in Chicago, has been deemed “unfit to play” by the team. This is a label that a few players have received throughout the NHL’s training camp phase, and although it doesn’t mean they won’t be able to play in the qualifying round, it’s not good news. Crawford posted a .917 save percentage this season so it is understandable why he would be a big player to lose. Backing up Crawford is Malcolm Subban, who was dealt to Chicago by the Vegas Golden Knights this season. The 26-year-old put up a .890 save percentage in Vegas and has no playoff experience. As the news about Crawford has come out, Subban has made it clear he is up for the challenge. Going up against one of the highest-scoring teams in the league in his first playoff games could boost Subban’s career substantially if he is able to pull off an upset, proving he is better than his numbers suggest. Edmonton has the choice between two goalies for the qualifying round. They could go with the veteran Mike Smith, who put a .902 save percentage to his name this year, or they could go with Mikko Koskinen who had a career year, putting up a .917 save percentage. The only downside for Koskinen is that he has no playoff experience, so the Oilers are going to have to decide how much that matters to them.
McDavid and Draisaitl Need to Keep Things up for the Edmonton Oilers
Without a doubt, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl make up the most powerful duo in the NHL, and they are a key to the Oilers’ success. The two forwards make up for 207 of the 602 points that the entire Oilers roster scored this shortened season. For the Oilers to have any success in the playoffs, these two are going to have to continue to produce as they have the past couple of years. McDavid and Draisaitl make up so much of Edmonton’s offense that if for some reason they enter a slump in the playoffs, they could lose out to any team, even the Blackhawks. Realistically though, the likelihood of this happening is slim to none. There is a lot of pressure on the Oilers to win this qualifying round. With key pieces like McDavid and Draisaitl, Edmonton has been expected to become a playoff team. After not making the playoffs for 10 years, the 2016–2017 Oilers showed that things were starting to turn around when they made it to the second round of the postseason. Unfortunately, the Oilers didn’t make the playoffs for the next two seasons after that run. If the Oilers lose out to the twelfth seed Blackhawks and don’t make the playoffs for the third year in a row, it will be bad news for the entire organization. To build an entire team and only make the playoffs one year is a letdown, to say the least, and if Edmonton can’t get into the postseason this year, I expect to see changes in the Oilers roster and management this offseason. One thing that does favor Edmonton this year, in terms of pressure, is that there will be no fans in the stands allowing the players to focus on the games they are currently in, and not what will happen if they lose them.
Unlike the Oilers, There’s no Pressure on the Blackhawks, Rather an Opportunity to Shock the Hockey World
Pressure for the Hawks this year is the opposite of that for the Oilers in every facet of the game. The team is not in its prime nor at its peak, but is on its way into a rebuild, so not much is expected of the Blackhawks for this postseason or next year. This gives the Hawks a chance to make headlines one last time without the pressure they had when they were cup champions. The Hawks are likely to come into game one of the series more relaxed than the Oilers, whether it is for the better or for the worse. Although many are counting out the Hawks completely from this series, they do have the pieces to possibly upset the Oilers. Chicago still has many of the players who won multiple Stanley Cups during the Blackhawks dynasty, even if it is slowing down their rebuild that eventually has to take place. Kane and Toews should never be counted out in a playoff-like scenario, and with some of the young stars that have been coming into their own this year with the Hawks, they could turn things up from the regular season. With Kubalik and Dach both adding fresh energy to Chicago’s offense, I could see them putting some goals on the scoresheet, even against a team like the Oilers.
To Summarize: Who has the Offensive Edge?
Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers have better numbers than the Hawks, and with their outstanding power play, I could see a couple of games where Edmonton runs up the score.
To Summarize: Who has the Defensive Edge?
Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton has a slightly better goals-against average than the Blackhawks, even though they don’t have huge names on their blue line. It should be interesting to see how they fare against Kane and the rest of the Blackhawks offense.
To Summarize: Who has the Goaltending Edge?
Edmonton Oilers. No competition here. With Crawford likely out, that leaves average backup goaltender Subban to hold down the fort for Chicago. Koskinen had a pretty good year in Edmonton, and as the likely starter, I give him the edge. The only way Subban comes out on top is if he recognizes the opportunity he has to make a name for himself and plays the best games of his career.
My Pick: Edmonton Oilers
I think this year might finally be the one where Edmonton can make a significant playoff run. Even if they don’t win it all, they need to give their fans some hope that the last 13 years haven’t been for nothing. The only way I see Chicago pulling off the upset is if the Oilers panic under the pressure and the Hawks are able to capitalize. I don’t think this is likely to happen. With the Oilers playing in their own building they should come into the series rested and comfortable. Even if most of the Oilers don’t play up to the standards they need to win a Stanley Cup, McDavid and Draisaitl may be able to take over the series and the scoresheet on their own. I would love to see Chicago take this series, but for me, there are too many factors pointing in the direction of the Oilers.
